A Best Case Scenario In The Ukraine War

What is the best possible outcome for the Ukraine War (for the U.S. and Western Europe, not necessarily Ukraine)?

1. Russia withdraws militarily from its foreign involves in Syria, the Caucasus, and Central Asia to use those military resources in Ukraine.

2. Russia loses all the ground it it gained in 2022 in Ukraine with further great losses of military equipment and skilled soldiers. This leaves it incapable of mounting a significant conventional war in the next five to ten years, because it lacks the industrial capacity to replace the military equipment and military expertise it lost in the war.

3. Selective Ukrainian strikes in the interior of Russia cause it to withdraw remaining military resources from the European theater.

4. A complete defeat in the Ukraine War leads to the breakup of the Russian federation, reducing its population by at least 20 million people, and reducing its access to land and resources by much more. It also leads to the removal of Vladimir Putin from power.

5. As a result of Russia's denial of natural gas to Western Europe, Western Europe rapidly shifts to a more energy efficient and a less fossil fuel dependent economy, and also finds alternative sources of natural gas. These reforms permanently undermine Russia's oil and gas industry going forward.

6. After the war, Ukraine joins NATO and the EU.

7. Disaggregated after the collapse of the Russian Federation, some of the newly independent former Russian states reform much more quickly and are emulated by the laggard former Russian states seeking to catch up with their peers.

8. Post-federal Russia abandons its efforts to maintain a blue sea navy with a global reach. 

9. Post-federal Russia also ends conscription and moves to a smaller all volunteer military (since its smaller size can't support as large a force) having concluded that conscripts are militarily ineffectual and that conscription is too socially disruptive leading to brain drain and domestic dissent.

10. The U.S. military learning lessons from the Ukraine War divests itself of most of its main battle tanks to allies who still want them, and reduces the size of its blue sea surface combatant navy.

11. Conservatives in America who took a pro-Russian stance are deeply discredited and lose all clout in defense and foreign policy circles.

12. Russia gives up much of its nuclear arsenal, which it turns out was outdated to the point where it would be doubtful it would work anyway, in exchange for economic aid and the dismantling of economic sanctions.