22 April 2008

Beyond Pennsylvania

After six weeks of waiting we have Pennsylvania results in the race of the Democratic party Presidential nomination:

With 96% precincts reporting:

Clinton 55%
Obama 45%

Clinton 52
Obama 46

These results are par for the course and probably keep Clinton in the race, but don't give her a lot of momentum going into the rest of the primary calendar.

The rest of the primary calendar is as follows:

Guam May 03 (4)
Indiana May 06 (72): Clinton leads slightly in the polls.
North Carolina May 06 (115): Obama leads by a lot in the polls.
West Virginia May 13 (28): Clinton is favored.
Kentucky May 20 (51) Clinton is favored.
Oregon May 20 (52) Obama is favored.
Puerto Rico Jun 01 (55)
Montana Jun 03 (16) Obama is favored.
South Dakota Jun 03 (15) Obama favored.

There are a total of 408 delegates at stake in the remaining nine contests.

According to CNN, there are about 313 superdelegates left who have not publicly favored on candidate or the other (another count puts the number remaining at 305).

According to CNN:

Barack Obama
- Total Delegates 1694
- Pledged Delegates 1464
- Superdelegates 230
- Additional Delegates Needed To Win: 331

Hillary Clinton
- Total Delegates 1556
- Pledged Delegates 1302
- Superdelegates 254
- Additional Delegates Needed To Win 469

A slightly different delegate count is found here it shows:

- Total Delegates 1713
- Pledged Delegates 1479
- Superdelegates 234
- Additional Delegates Needed To Win 311

- Total Delegates 1586
- Pledged Delegates 1328
- Superdelegates 258
- Additional Delegagtes Needed To Win 438

Nobody is going to go into the convention with enough pledged delegates to take the nomination without superdelegates. Obama would need more than three-quarters of the remaining pledged delegates, while it is mathematically impossible for Clinton to do so. In the proportional representation system used by Democrats, and in light of the remaining primary calendar, this simply isn't going to happen.

It is also exceedingly likely that Obama will have the most pledged delegates going into the Democratic National Convention in Denver in August, although it isn't clear how much of an edge will remain when all of the primaries and caucuses are over.

The recent trend in superdelegate endorsements has overwhelmingly favored Obama. It isn't yet clear if the Pennsylvania primary results will change that trend.

Michigan and Florida are not currently on track to have any delegates seated, although it isn't too late for some kind of deal to be struck regarding those states.

The odds at this point weigh heavily against Clinton. She needs about 60% of the remaining delegates (super and pledged) without Michigan and Florida. She didn't do that well in Pennsylvania, and the remaining states on the primary calendar are a mixed bag, so she is unlikely to do that well among the remaining pledged delegates. This means that she needs well over 60% of the remaining superdelegates' support to win.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Mathematically impossible for Clinton to hit 2025, but not impossible (mathematically) for her to be ahead in pledged delegates.

That won't happen either (i.e., realistically impossible) but mathematically possible - and therefore that would give her the ammo necessary to change the super dels minds.

Lemme reiterate – won’t happen – but she doesn’t need to be at 2025 to have a convincing argument for the super dels.

All that said, I’m an unapologetic Obama supporter, and wish she would drop out.

Oh well…