tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14162253.post7024979833569037725..comments2024-03-28T18:57:15.124-06:00Comments on Wash Park Prophet: About the F-35Andrew Oh-Willekehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02537151821869153861noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14162253.post-15070679430228086672008-07-10T19:49:00.000-06:002008-07-10T19:49:00.000-06:00Update:Defense procurement accounting is like Holl...Update:<BR/><BR/>Defense procurement accounting is like Hollywood accounting, getting a straight answer isn't always easy. My sources include the following:<BR/><BR/>The administration's Supplemental Defense Appropriations request this past March put the cost savings associated with not buying two F-35s at $389 million, which is $194.5 million per plane. Full multi-role capabilities for the F-35 are likely to take until 2016 to achieve.<BR/><BR/>By comparison, according to Wikipedia's sources regarding the F-22, as of December 18, 2007:<BR/><BR/>"By the time all 183 fighters have been purchased, $34 billion will have been spent on actual procurement, resulting in a total program cost of $62 billion or about $339 million per aircraft. The incremental cost for one additional F-22 is around $137 million; decreasing with larger volumes. If the Air Force were to buy 100 more F-22s today, the cost of each one would be less than $117 million and would continue to drop with additional aircraft purchases."<BR/><BR/>Strategy Page in May 2006, before some of the most recent cost overruns in the program estimated a total cost for the F-35 of $113 million a unit including R&D (about half the price) and a production cost of an F-22 of $170 per unit exclusive of R&D. Development costs for the F-35A and F-35B are largely sunk costs at this point, but there are some development costs yet to be incurred for all three versions, and they are a significant share of the costs for the F-35C which is least far along in the development process. For example, according to a contract announced by the US Department of Defense in August 2007 a power generation defect in the original engine design won't have an update ready for use until the end of 2009.<BR/><BR/>A March 2005 GAO report described by the Washington Post said: "it is now expected to cost $244.8 billion to produce a planned 2,400 planes. Development will cost $44.8 billion, including a $10 billion increase identified last year, the report said." The price has gone up, not down, since then.<BR/><BR/>The manufacturer quotes a flyaway cost for the SM-27/47 Machete, already fully developed, of $15-$20 million each depending upon the model chosen. It is no stealth strike fighter, but would be quite appropriate as a supplement to the existing A-10 force. The cost for competitors like the AT-6B, the Wichita-based Hawker Beechcraft product that is often marketed as a COIN aircraft, the Embraer EMB-314 Super Tucano and the US Aircraft A-67 Dragon, ought to be in the same ballpark and likewise shouldn't require meaningful upfront development costs since they have already been designed.<BR/><BR/>When Aviation Technology Group's proposed the Homeland Defense Interceptor the quoted cost in ballpark of $6 million per unit with about 30% of the operating cost of an F-16 (it didn't get any military contacts and didn't get enough civilian contracts, so it filed for bankruptcy this past Spring). Triple that price and its still cheap. A less ambitious plane, naturally, speeds up the time necessary to make it operational. You wouldn't want one going head to head with another fighter, but this would be totally adequate for the Air Force National Guard when deployed against a hijacked commercial jet or terrorist controlled general aviation airplane operating in the territorial United States.Andrew Oh-Willekehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537151821869153861noreply@blogger.com