Lamm In Trouble?

Peggy Lamm is skipping the caucus process in the 7th Congressional District race. I can see only one reason for doing this. She is afraid that she will be embarassed by either not getting the 30% of the vote from the party faithful that she needs to get on the ballot, or the 10% of the vote she needs to be allowed to petition onto the ballot at all. Instead, she needs, I believe, 1000 signatures on a petition.

In theory, this means nothing, because most primary ballot voters don't participate in the caucus. But, given her claim that she has polls showing that she is clearly the most popular candidate on the primary ballot, it certainly comes across as a good way to alienate the most active members of the Democratic party (including a large share of 7th District donors) and a sign that she doesn't believe the polls that she has been touting about herself.