My Predictions v. The Results

Before the election I made some predictions, mostly, but not all, safe ones. How did I make out? The shorter version is that I misjudged five of sixteen ballot issues, and rated one as less close than it really should have been rated. I was correct on all partisan races where I gave an opinion and on the judicial race where I gave an opinion.

National:
1. Democrats will win a majority of the seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
True
2. Democrats will win more seats in the U.S. Senate.
True
3. Ohio's next Governor will be a Democrat.
True
4. New York's next Governor will be a Democrat.
True

Colorado:
1. Democrat Bill Ritter will defeat Republican Bob Beauprez by a comfortable margin in the Governor's race.
True
2. Democrat Ed Perlmutter will defeat Republican Rick O'Donnell in the 7th Congressional District race.
True
3. Amendment 38 (Petitions) will be defeated.
True
4. Amendment 40 (Judicial Term Limits) will be defeated.
True
5. Amendment 41 (Government Ethics) will pass.
True
6. Amendment 44 (Marijuana Possession) will fail.
True
7. Referendum G (Obsolete Constitutional Provisions) will pass.
True
8. Democrat John Salazar will defeat Scott Tipton in the 3rd Congressional District race.
True
9. Democrat Diana DeGette will defeat her Green Party opponent in the 1st Congressional District.
True
10. Reform Candidate Eric Eidness will not win the 4th Congressional District race, despite having received many newspaper endorsements and doing well in the polls for a third party candidate.
True
11. Democrat Mark Udall will prevail over token Republican opposition in the 2nd Congressional District.
True
12. Voter turnout will be lower than in a Presidential election year, but will be at levels at least comparable to the 2002 election.
Still Unclear
13. The percentage of votes cast absentee and by early voting in 2006 will be greater than in 2002.
True
14. All judges other than Court of Appeals Judge Marquez will be retained.
True

Denver:
1. Referendum 1B (Financial Reorganization) will pass.
True

Of course, the flip side of the easy predictions, are the races to watch. They are:

Toss Up
Secretary of State
Republican wins with 51.6% of the vote -- CORRECT
State Treasurer
Democrat wins with 50.4% of the vote -- CORRECT
Amendment 39 (School Spending)
Fails 31-69 --- Prediction WRONG
Amendment 43 (Marriage)
Wins 56-44 ---- Prediction WRONG
Referendum I (Domestic Partnerships)
Fails 53-47 --- Prediction not clearly wrong.

Leans Democratic
State School Board District 7
True
State House Control
True

Leans Republican
Attorney General
True
CU Regent At Large
True (but final count could still flip this one)
4th Congressional District
True
5th Congressional District
True
State School Board District 4
True

Leans Pass:
Amendment 42 (Minimum Wage)
True
Referendum E (Veteran's Property Taxes)
True
Referendum F (Recall Deadlines)
False --- Prediction WRONG
Referendum H (Tax Deduction For Illegal Immigrant Compensation)
True -- but should have been rated toss up, was very close.
Referendum J (School Spending)
False --- Prediction WRONG
Denver Referendum 1A (Preschool)
True -- but should have been rated toss up, was very close.

Leans Fail:
Referendum K (Immigration Lawsuit v. Feds)
False --- Prediction WRONG

Likely Democratic
State Senate Control
True

Likely Republican
6th Congressional District
True
CU Regent District 3
True

Likely Retention
Court of Appeals Judge Marquez
True