The Innocence Effect

[S]hadow-of-trial models [of plea bargaining] commonly pay little attention to defendants’ culpability per se. To wit, innocents – who may well face a higher average probability of acquittal at trial – are expected to demand a more lenient sentence in return for their guilty plea. However, if the plea offer is accurately adjusted to defendants’ probability of conviction, innocence in itself plays no role in the defendant's decision. This assumption, which is jointly held by both parties to the plea bargaining debate, is false. . . .

[I]nnocent defendants are significantly less likely to accept plea offers than their guilty counterparts, even when these offers appear objectively attractive in light of the evidence against them and the expected sanction at trial. . . .

[T]he implications of the innocence effect and its underlying causes for the plea bargaining debate . . . requires both camps to reevaluate their policy prescriptions and offering some new proposals of our own to minimize false convictions, better to protect the innocent, and improve the plea bargaining process. . . .

As a result of the innocence effect, plea bargains probably do not increase the rate of wrongful convictions, as argued by some of the plea bargaining opponents, but also do not promote the interests of innocent defendants as argued by the plea bargaining supporters. . . .

One way to reduce the negative effect of plea bargaining on the sentences of wrongfully convicted defendants is to limit size of the plea discount. The law can instruct judges not to approve a plea bargain if the post plea sentence is significantly lower than the sentence expected after a jury trial conviction. If the prosecution’s ability to offer significant sentence discount in plea bargaining would be limited, defendants requiring considerable discount in exchange for their guilty plea would not bargain. Since the innocent demand, on average, significantly lighter sentences than guilty defendants, the proportion of innocent defendants among those who plead guilty will be smaller. . . . Restriction of the guilty plea discount will minimize the gap between the sentence imposed on those who opt for a trial, including relatively many innocent, and that of those who plead guilty, most of whom are guilty. The innocent defendants who will be convicted in jury trial will still be sentenced for longer terms than the guilty pleaders, yet, the difference will be smaller. . . .

When it comes to sentence bargains, it is not a particularly difficult task. Courts can be instructed to reject plea bargains if the proposed sentence is substantially lower than that imposed in similar circumstances after a trial. Limiting charge bargaining is much harder, but it might still be a possible task. . .

Another alternative to plea bargaining can be bargaining for a simplified criminal process. The law can encourage parties to replace plea bargains with agreement on shorter and simplified process in return for a sentence discount. Parties can agree on a bench trial instead of a jury trial, agree that the defendants will be the first to testify, before the case for the prosecution is presented, or make other stipulations which allow a cheaper trial for the prosecution.

True, in such a simplified process, the risk of mistake might be larger. Yet, innocence defendants in such process can gain a discount for the agreement without pleading guilty – something which they are reluctant to do. Moreover, defendants in such simplified proceedings will maintain the right to contest the case, and, if successful, gain an acquitted, a right they waive in regular plea bargaining. Innocent defendants who may be reluctant to plead guilty, would often prefer a simplifies process in which they are not required to plead guilty, are able to avoid the damaging consequences of prolonged litigation and benefit a lenient sentence in exchange for saving judicial time.

True, the defendant in such a simplified trial might have a smaller chance of acquittal. As a result, it is possible that defendants who would have been acquitted in a full trial may be convicted in a simplified trial. Nevertheless, it can be said in confidence that the advantages of the simplified procedure outweigh its disadvantages.

First, the proposed procedure will promote the interest of the innocent defendants by allowing them to benefit from a real legal process which is aimed at finding the truth while benefiting from a sentence discount. Indeed, the cost of this procedure is higher than that of a guilty plea, but the gap between the two is not so big when it comes to substantially simplified process. Additionally, most of the guilty defendants who plead guilty today will continue to do so even when offered a simplified process is an option because in order to be acquitted in such a procedure, they would have to lie to the judge. In most cases that involve conclusive evidence, defendants will find it psychologically difficult to lie to a judge; mostly due to the fact that it probably will not help their case. As shown above, guilty defendants tend to plead guilty simply because they are guilty.

Therefore most of those who plead guilty will continue to do so even when they can get a similar discount in a simplified process. Furthermore, some of the defendants, who in the absence of an alternative procedure would choose a full trial, would now choose the simplified procedure. As a result, judicial resources will be spared and could be channeled towards the implementation of the simplified process. In light of this, the simplified procedure could advance the interests of the innocent without the need for additional resources.

Second, the procedure may also reduce wrongful convictions. Despite the reluctance of innocent defendants to plead guilty, some of them succumb to the desire to quickly end the proceedings or to the fear of a wrongful jury trial conviction, and thus plead guilty. The simplified procedure could provide these defendants an opportunity to challenge the charges against them. In light of all of this, we believe that the benefits of the proposed procedure, in view of innocent’s reluctance to plead guilty, outweigh its disadvantages. Moreover, even in cases where a person might be mistakenly convicted in a simplified process, the moral gravity of such conviction will be smaller because it will be reached after an honest judicial attempt to find the truth. Studies on procedural fairness even indicate that defendants who are not satisfied with the outcome of the trial tend to accept it if they were given an opportunity to argue their case before an impartial arbiter before the verdict. Simplified procedure might be better in allowing the defendant a saveopportunity to present his story, than the adversarial jury trial.

From here.

The process bargaining elements of the authors proposals are expressly a part of the U.S. military justice system, in which a defendant can sacrifice due process protections in exchange for a lower maximum sentence, if the prosecuting authority files a charge that permits that process to be used.

One procedural tool to limit charge and sentencing bargains would be to allow defendants to make a post-sentencing motion to reduce their sentence to some multiple of the worst case scenario that the defendant would have faced under any plea deal offered by the prosecution prior to trial.

Another reform that might be important is to review particular proposed or currently available criminal procedure protections of criminal defendants to determine which do the most and the least to help innocent defendants.