Predictions For The Next Four Years

The following predictions are for the period from January 20, 2017 to January 20, 2021 (i.e. President Trump's current term of office), unless otherwise stated.

War and Peace

* U.S. defense spending increases significantly: 75%

* The number of active duty U.S. military personnel is significantly increased: 70%

* The B-3 bomber program enters production: 60%

* Russia adds territory (with or without further military actions): 40%

* The U.S. enters a new ground war: 40%

* The U.S. will return to regularly using torture: 40%

* A carrier based drone fighter aircraft enters service: 35%

* All future Littoral Combat Ship purchases are canceled: 35%

* The U.S. ends military aid for Saudi Arabia and/or Egypt: 30%

* An A-10 fighter replacement program is commenced: 30%

* The U.S. recognizes greatly increased Chinese territory in the South China Sea: 30%

* There is a conventional war in Europe: 25%

* The U.S. commits at least several thousand U.S. ground troops to fighting ISIS: 25%

* The U.S. fires upon Iranian military ships or boats in the Persian Gulf: 25%

* NATO is dissolved: 20%

* The F-35 program is canceled or dramatically reduced in units purchased: 20%

* The F-22 program is reopened: 20%

* The U.S. bombs nuclear facilities in N. Korea: 15%

* The U.S. institutes a draft: 15%

* An isolated nuclear weapon (perhaps by a N. Korea or Iran, not necessarily a major nuclear power) is used: 10%

* A genuine nuclear war: 5%.

Immigration and Trade

* Increased border controls including an expanded border wall are enacted: 85%

* Anti-refugee laws are enacted: 60%

* The U.S. and the U.K. enter into a bilateral post-Brexit trade deal: 50%

* Increased deportations: 50%

* Tougher immigration laws: 45%

* The Trans-Pacific Partnership Treaty is passed: 40%

* NAFTA is terminated: 25%

* The number of undocumented non-citizens is reduced by several million: 15%

Politics and Government

* Republicans lose control of one or both houses of Congress in the 2018 election: 40%

* Civil service and.or union protections for federal workers are greatly reduced: 15%

* Trump resigns for lack of interest: 10%

* Trump is impeached: 10%

* An anti-Trump conservative party elects or wins over at least one federal politician: 10%

* There is an attempted assassination of Trump that is a publicly known near miss: 10%

* Trump successfully abrogates the constitution: 5%

* Trump is assassinated: 5%

* Enough Republican Senators defect to the Democratic party to cause it to lose control: 5%

* The Democratic party schisms between a progressive and center-left wing: 5%

Economics

* The estate tax is reduced or eliminated: 90%

* Economic inequality increases in the U.S.: 90%

* Interest rates will increase: 90%

* Unemployment increases: 85%

* The number of uninsured Americans increases significantly: 80%

* The U.S. budget deficit grows substantially: 75%

* U.S. corporate tax rates are reduced: 75%

* Obama's new overtime regulations are scrapped: 75%

* There is a recession in the U.S.: 70%

* Section 8 housing subsidies and/or public housing expenditures are cut: 60%

* Oil prices will increase: 55%

* Social security and/or Medicare are materially cut: 55%

* Food stamps are cut: 55%

* Legal rights for private sector unions will be significantly weakened: 50%

* There is a crash by October of 2017: 35%

* Economic growth will be greater than under Obama's first term: 10%

Domestic Policy

* SCOTUS regains a conservative majority: 95%

* Environmental indicators stall or get worse: 65%

* Roe v. Wade is narrowed: 60%

* The federal government abandons efforts to protect transgender individuals: 60%

* Significant amounts of federal land is transferred to the states: 55%

* Some federal gun control legislation is repealed: 50%

* Trump replaces a Justice Kennedy or a liberal SCOTUS Justice: 45%

* The federal government cracks down in recreational marijuana: 35%

* Federal civil rights/voting rights legislation is weakened: 35%

* Roe v. Wade is overturned: 25%

* Major federal sentencing reform is enacted: 20%

* SCOTUS reverses it gay rights jurisprudence: 15%

Other

* There is a rise in U.S. hate crimes and discrimination: 90%

* There is a major first family scandal: 85%

* There is a major Trump cabinet scandal: 60%

* The plan to put a woman on U.S. currency is scraped: 55%

* Trump cronies are pardoned: 40%