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06 September 2018

Perceived Scarcity Drives Conservatism

A new study shows that "in the 2016 presidential election, with Republicans making gains in counties that had 2.5 times more deaths from suicide, alcohol, and overdose."
Counties with a net gain in the percentage of individuals who voted for the Republican candidate had a 15 percent higher 2015 age-adjusted death rate than counties with a net gain in Democratic voters. The increase in death rates due to alcohol, drugs, and suicide was also 2.5 times higher in counties where Republicans made gains compared with counties where Democrats made gains. 
"It's commonly argued that President Trump won by receiving more votes from people who have been left behind economically -- especially older, less-educated, and less-urban, white voters," said Dr. Goldman. "Based on our data, we can also say that changes in life expectancy were an independent factor in voting choices. Reduced health prospects are an important marker of dissatisfaction, discouragement, hopelessness, and fear -- sentiments that may have resonated with voters who sided with President Trump. Although correlation does not imply causality, our findings also suggest that plausible improvements in life expectancy in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin might have shifted their electoral votes to Secretary Clinton.
This isn't a great surprise and corroborates previous data.

General, but less widely disseminated political theory explains why this is so.

Basically, conservatism (and religiosity) is associated with economic hardship and uncertainty, while liberalism and secularism are associate with economic prosperity and security.

If personal survival is the key, you focus on looking out for yourself and perhaps your family, at the expense of empathy for others specifically, or in the abstract in the sense of the larger community and environment.

Suicide, alcohol related and overdose related deaths are symptoms of psychological stress and despair that tend to be associated with economic hardship and uncertainty. So, survival oriented thinking, which tends to be conservative, prevails.

The paper is:

Lee Goldman, et al., "Independent Relationship of Changes in Death Rates with Changes in US Presidential Voting." Journal of General Internal Medicine (2018). DOI: 10.1007/s11606-018-4568-6

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