Sanders won in the Northern Marinara islands this weekend. Washington State (like Texas) announced a narrow win for Biden.
Yesterday, March 17, 2020, Biden swept the three primaries that were held. Ohio postponed its primary until June due to coronavirus. The results so far are as follows:
In terms of delegates, Sanders doesn't have an insurmountable challenge. But, Sanders needed to do better in Michigan, Illinois, Washington State and Arizona to win the nomination. Sanders is reassessing his campaign.
So, this is going to be a Trump v. Biden contest in November, as much as I would like it to be otherwise.
The analysis has shifted, however. The core component of his re-election campaign was a strong economy. But, almost all of the stock market gains during his Presidency have been erased, his Treasury secretary is predicting unemployment rates up to 20% in the coming months, and a global recession is almost inevitable at this point. His handling of the crisis has been seriously criticized. And, these factors could undermine support for him in November unless he does a much better job going forward.
Meanwhile, former Governor Hickenlooper, who won almost 30% of delegates in the caucus process in the U.S. Senate race in Colorado, has made it onto the ballot by petition, and so he has dropped out of the caucus process. Andrew Romanoff will make it onto the U.S. Senate ballot that way and it is unlikely that any of the other U.S. Senate candidates will. It is possible that someone else will make it onto the U.S. Senate primary ballot by petition, but no one else trying to do so has a realistic shot of winning the primary which will come down to Hickenlooper v. Romanoff. The county assembly stage of the caucus process will be conducted virtually.
Meanwhile, former Governor Hickenlooper, who won almost 30% of delegates in the caucus process in the U.S. Senate race in Colorado, has made it onto the ballot by petition, and so he has dropped out of the caucus process. Andrew Romanoff will make it onto the U.S. Senate ballot that way and it is unlikely that any of the other U.S. Senate candidates will. It is possible that someone else will make it onto the U.S. Senate primary ballot by petition, but no one else trying to do so has a realistic shot of winning the primary which will come down to Hickenlooper v. Romanoff. The county assembly stage of the caucus process will be conducted virtually.
If this coronavirus pandemic continues or even intensifies all the way to Nov 2020 and beyond, with an Italy like health crisis here in the USA and thousands dead every day from now till election,
ReplyDeletecould the health departments in all 50 states either postpone or cancel the election over health concerns?
what does the constitution and law say about this?
personally i think the response has been overkill
I answered a question very similar to this at Politics.StackExchange. https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/50597/how-would-next-u-s-president-be-determined-if-there-was-a-national-emergency-th/50614#50614
ReplyDeleteI said: "First, this has never really happened in the United States. In extreme emergencies and national disasters, elections have been held a few days late, but never suspended (unlike, for example, the United Kingdom, that suspended elections during World War II). Elections were also not canceled during the Civil War, or as a result of the War of 1812 (during which the U.S. capitol was burned to the ground by foreign military forces).
ReplyDeleteFor example, elections were not prevented from being conducted by the Spanish flu of 1918 which was in all respects deadlier and more contagious than the coronavirus, despite the fact that the technology available for a response in 1918 was less advanced.
Realistically, you would need a disease that is catastrophic on the scale of the Black Plague in medieval Europe (that killed a third to a half of the population in many places), and not merely something like the coronavirus (with a 2% mortality rate), to take out the electoral process in the U.S.
A situation like that would involve the collapse of the entire regime and government, and would send us into uncharted waters.
Second, election laws can be changed quite quickly in an emergency. One could, for example, shift as Colorado has, to a system of near complete all mail in ballots, to reduce the amount of in person interactions that were needed.
The U.S. Constitution does not provide the option of not conducting an election. In the absence of an election, elected offices become vacant and the succession provisions of the law which usually kick in when there is a death during someone's term of office would kick in. U.S. Senate vacancies can be filled in most states by Governors on a temporary basis. U.S. House seats that go vacant must be filled in vacancy elections. There is a line of succession to the Presidency defined by law involving a few key Congressional leaders and the cabinet."
The dates of elections are set by state statute subject to federal statute and can be adjusted by law. But, the terms of office are set in the U.S. Constitution and cannot be adjusted by statute, so a tweak in election laws that prevented posts from being filled by their date of expiration would lead to vacancies, but a chance of the election date by statute to, for example, November 30, 2020 would be permissible.
ReplyDeleteso legally health departments could shut down in person voting in their state
ReplyDeletedo all 50 states have mail in ballots
since mail takes time, and then finding personnel to count these votes, certainly this could delay election results
personally i think the response to coronavirus is possibly an over reaction, if instead of calling it coronavirus we called it H1N1 with currently a 100+ deaths, it would be.
ReplyDeletei understand that coronavirus is unknown, with no vaccine and no herd immunity and flu is a known.
italy and spain sounds bad from what i hear in the news.
ReplyDeletethis article,
https://www.yahoo.com/news/study-says-high-temperature-high-213034915.html
suggests that higher temperatures and sunlight and humidity may bring down coronavirus as it does with flu. so things may get better as summer approaches.
perhaps global warming is a good thing, hotter weather means less coronavirus and flu, though perhaps more mosquito viruses like zika and west nile
all these viruses suck though.
but if people were dying of mosquito and tick and flea based viruses during summer, global warming activists like greta thumberg will certainly seize on that
The U.S. is very closely tracking the Italian scenario. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10157426964603740&set=a.56729368739&type=3&theater
ReplyDeletewhat would it mean if an Italy like scenario happens here, in terms of politics and election, economy and society?
ReplyDeleteFor example, so Biden wins, but doesn't campaign publicly? kinda hard to imagine how he can win