From the Washington Post at 1:16 p.m. Mountain Time (Friday, November 6, 2020).
This is how the Presidential race stands. Not every last vote has been counted, some litigation is pending and there will be one or two recounts.
But the likelihood that the additional votes, litigation outcomes, or recounts will change the result from the one shown above in which Biden has 306 electoral votes and Trump has 238 is low. Additional votes are likely to favor Biden at this point considering where votes are not yet counted. None of the lawsuits has any real factual or legal basis and many have already been dismissed. Recounts only change outcomes about one time in ten and then, almost always when the gap is in the low single digit thousands or less.
The likelihood that additional votes, litigation outcomes, or recounts will shift Biden's electoral vote count to below 270 is even lower. The results in at least three of these states would have to flip from the status quo shown above.
It was a close election. A shift of just 0.6 percentage points nationwide would have been enough for Trump to win re-election, while leaving Trump lagging by 2.2 percentage points in the popular vote (or more).
Trump fell short in the marginal states he needed to win the electoral college by about 80,000 votes out of about 143.9 million counted so far (there are about 16 million votes not yet counted, but the vast majority of those uncounted votes for in states that have been safely won by Biden or Trump by large margins).
The popular vote in the Presidential election is Biden with 74,001,605 votes (50.5%) to Trump 69,899,090 votes (47.7%), a margin of 4,102,515 votes (2.8 percentage points) in favor of Biden. Biden's margin will increase a bit as more votes are counted.
There are relatively few states that were close.
Twelve states and DC had a more than 15 percentage point margin for Biden. Nineteen states had a more than 15 percentage point margin for Trump. Nineteen states had a margin between Biden and Trump of less than 15 percentage points (Biden won 13, Trump won 6).
Just nine states had a margin of less than 7 percentage points (Biden won 6, Trump won 3). Just seven states had a margin of less than 3 percentage points that would appropriately have been considered toss up states (Biden won 6, Trump won 1).
Lean Blue Outcomes (7)
Colorado (Biden + 13.0)
Illinois (Biden + 12.3)
New Mexico (Biden + 10.6)
Maine (Biden + 10.5)
Virginia (Biden + 9.5)
Minnesota (Biden + 7.1)
New Hampshire (Biden + 7.1)
Toss Up Race Outcomes (7)
Michigan (Biden + 2.8)
Arizona (Biden + 2.4)
Nevada (Biden + 1.6)
Wisconsin (Biden + 0.6)
------------- 270 electoral votes above this line
Pennsylvania (Biden + 0.2)
Georgia (Biden + less than 0.1)
------------- 238 electoral votes below this line
North Carolina (Trump + 1.4)
Lean Trump Outcomes (2)
Florida (Trump + 3.4)
Texas (Trump +5.9)
Likely Trump Outcomes (5)
Ohio (Trump + 8.1)
Iowa (Trump + 8.2)
South Carolina (Trump + 12.0)
Analysis
Almost all of the states that are even remotely competitive are:
in the Midwestern Rust Belt (Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Iowa),
in the Atlantic Coastal "New South" (Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida),
in the Southwest (Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and Texas), or
in rural New England (New Hampshire and Maine).
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