2020 Presidential Election Exit Polls

The CNN exit polls have data broken down by 24 states in addition to a national total for the 2020 Presidential election. 

Since third-party candidates didn't perform strongly in 2020, these results can be summarized well with the percentage of the vote for a single candidate, and in the results below I will use the percentage of a demographic voting for Biden (recognizing that a 50% vote for Biden means a Biden majority of the two party vote in that jurisdiction, because some votes were cast for third parties).

In broad brush, a state's results can largely be explained by the percentage of the white vote going to Biden and by the racial breakdown of the voters in a state.  

According to the CNN exit poll, Biden won every state polled where Biden got 40% or more of the white vote except Iowa where Biden got 43% of the white vote, and voters were 92% white, 2% black, 4% Latino, 1% Asian and 2% other race, while Trump won every state where Biden got less than 40% of the white vote. Biden got only 76% of the small black vote in Iowa, but got 67% of the Latino vote in Iowa.

In the states that turned out to be close in the 2020 Presidential election, Biden's percentage of the white vote was as follows:

Arizona 46% (Biden) 74% white voters.

Wisconsin 46% (Biden) 86% white voters.

Michigan 44% (Biden) 81% white voters.

Nevada 43% (Biden) 65% white voters.

Pennsylvania 42% (Biden) 81% white voters.

Florida 37% (Trump) 62% white voters.

North Carolina 33% (Trump) 65% white voters.

Texas 33% (Trump) 60% white voters.

Georgia 30% (Biden) 61% white voters.

States with that range of percentages of the white vote going for Biden that were not close were:

Virginia 45% (Biden) 67% white voters.

Iowa 43% (Trump) 92% white voters.

Ohio 39% (Trump) 84% white voters.

Montana 39% (Trump) 88% white voters.

Kentucky 33% (Trump) 88% whit voters.

There was not a single state where data is available where Black, Latino or Asian support for Biden was less than 53% and the spread of percentage support for Biden among white voters by state was about twice as great as the spread of percentage support for Biden among the other three categories of non-white voters upon which there is meaningful data.

The National Results By Partisanship

Nationally 54% of independents (26% of those surveyed) favored Biden in the CNN exit poll, 94% of Democrats (37% of those surveyed) favored Biden, and 94% of Republicans (36% of those surveyed) favored Trump. 

In the Associated Press Votecast Exit Polling 52% of independents (5% of  those surveyed) favored Biden as did 95% of those who were Democrats or lean Democrat (47% of those surveyed), while 91% of those who were Republicans or lean Republican (48% of  those surveyed) favored Trump.

Taken together, the key factor in this year's election were independents who lean Republican (about 12% of voters) but voted for Biden in large numbers.

2016 Vote

CNN's exit poll reported that 95% of people who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 (40% of the total) voted for Biden while 4% voted for Trump, that 92% of people who voted for Trump in 2016 (43% of the total) voted for Trump while 7% voted for Biden, that 60% of people who voted for someone else in 2016  (5% of the total) voted for Biden while 25% voted for Trump (with only 15% continuing to vote for a third-party candidate), and that 58% of people who didn't vote in 2016 (11% of the total) voted for Biden while 39% voted for Trump. 

Votecast also reported that 96% of people who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 (38% of the total) voted for Biden while 3% voted for Trump, that 93% of people who voted for Trump in 2016 (41% of the total) voted for Trump while 6% voted for Biden, that 57% of people who voted for someone else in 2016  (8% of the total) voted for Biden while 28% voted for Trump (with only 15% continuing to vote for a third-party candidate), and that 58% of people who didn't vote in 2016 (15% of the total) voted for Biden while 41% voted for Trump. 

Of course, those numbers also show some notable inaccuracy in the Votecast data, because the percentage of voters who voted for somebody else in 2016 was less than half of the 8% who reported having done so, and the number of voters who voted for Clinton in 2016 was greater than the number of voters who vote for Trump in 2016 by about three percentage points (the reverse of what voters reported this time). It could be that many Sanders voters who voted for Clinton in 2016 inaccurately reported voting for "somebody else" in 2016, perhaps because they didn't understand the question correctly.

The inaccuracy in the relative Clinton-Trump votes cast in 2016 is similar in the CNN poll, although the percentage who said that they voted for a third-party candidate in 2016 at 5% is closer to the real number.

But, the numbers on prior voting in 2016 still tend to support the narrative that independent voters who lean Republican and in many cases voted for Trump in 2016, who voted for Biden in 2020 were decisive in changing the outcome in 2020.

Nationally, broken down by race, the percentage support for Biden was as follows:

Black 87%

Latino 65%

Asian 61%

Other 58%

White 41%

The Associated Press Votecast exit poll results (nationally) were: Black 90%, Asian 70%, Latino 63%, Other 58%, Native American 46%, White 43% and Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 35%.

Put another way the racial breakdown of Biden voters (using the Votecast numbers) is:

White 64%

Black 18%

Latino 11%

Asian 3%

Other 4% (including Native American and Pacific Islander)

The racial breakdown of Trump voters (using Votecast numbers) is:

White 87%

Black 2%

Latino 7%

Asian 1%

Other 4% (including Native American and Pacific Islander)

Nationally, by religion the break down (for statistically significant national subsamples) was:

Religiously affiliated non-Jewish, non-Christians 69%

No religion 65%

Catholic 52%

Protestant or other Christian 39%

White Catholic support for Biden (who is himself a white Catholic) was 44%, while Latino Catholic support for Biden was 65%.

The breakdown of the religious non-Jewish, non-Christian vote is tricky to make sense of since it is a heterogeneous category including, for example, Muslims, Buddhists, Hindus, neo-pagans, and religious Unitarian/Universalists. Muslims, in particular, are probably more right leaning than others in this category generally speaking, but Trump's strong anti-Muslim rhetoric may have alienated even Muslims who favor conservative policies on most economic and social issues. Overall, religious non-Christians who were not Jews, and Jews (see below), supported Biden to a similar degree, and non-religious people also supported Biden to a fairly similar degree. 

There were no statistically significant breakdowns available for Jewish voters in the CNN exit polling.

Other exit polls did look at the Jewish vote, which no one disputes favored Biden, although the magnitude of this support ranged from 61% in a GOP poll to 68% in an Associated Press sponsored poll to 77% in a liberal group's poll.

[A] poll commissioned by the Republican Jewish Coalition found that 30.5 percent of Jewish voters voted for GOP incumbent Donald Trump nationally compared to 60.6% for Democratic challenger Joe Biden. . . .

Meanwhile, a poll commissioned by the liberal group J Street found that 77% of Jewish Americans voted for Biden and only 21% for Trump. . . .

[T]he major media consortium that traditionally cooperates in exit polls — the National Election Pool, which includes The New York Times, The Washington Post and CNN, among other outlets — did not post Jewish results this year.

In 2016, the National Election Pool found that 71% of Jewish voters chose Hillary Clinton and 24% opted for Trump. But there were no Jewish results posted this year, The Washington Post said, because there were “not enough respondents to break down details.”

The Associated Press, which once belonged to the consortium, left in 2018 and set up Votecast, which this year did include a Jewish breakdown. It found that 30% of Jewish Americans were voting for Trump and 68% for Biden. That analysis included about 3,300 Jewish voters (3% of the total 110,000 people surveyed).

Votecast includes major shifts in methodology from the National Election Pool exit polling system, including online panels and, in some cases, compensation for participating — departures substantive enough to make it impossible to compare with past National Election Pool polling. . . .

Both the RJC and J Street polls were completed during the same time period, had similar margins of error (3.5-4%) and included hundreds of Jewish voters — 600 for the RJC and 800 for J Street. But the RJC survey included more Orthodox Jews, who tend to vote Republican, and fewer Reform and unaffiliated Jews, who tend to be solidly Democratic, than the J Street poll. That could explain why the RJC poll yielded a result that suggests more Trump voters.

The Associated Press Votecast exit poll results (nationally) were: None 72%, Jewish 68%, Muslim 64%, Something Else 62%, Catholic 49%, Other Christian 41%, Protestant 38%, Mormon 24%. White Evangelical 18%, not white Evangelical 58%. Never attends church 63%, attends church a few times a year 52%, attends church monthly 45%, attends church a few times a month 45%, attends church weekly or more 37%.

Put another way the religious breakdown of Biden voters (using the Votecast numbers) is:

White Evangelical 8%

Mormon <1%

Catholic 22%

Other Christian 26%

Non-Christian 45%

The religious breakdown of Trump voters (using Votecast numbers) is:

White Evangelical 39%

Mormon 2%

Catholic 23%

Other Christian 16%

Non-Christian 20%

Gender, Sexual Orientation and Marital Status

The CNN exit polls show Biden support at 45% for men and 57% for women. 

The Votecast exit polls show Biden support at 46% for men and 55% for women (the less than 1% of Votecast respondents who didn't identify as men or women had 70% support for Biden).

The CNN exit polls shows Biden support at 64% for LGBT voters (7% of the total) and 51% for non-LGBT voters.

CNN reports Biden support by marital status as:

Married (56% of voters) 46%

Married Men (59% of male voters) 44%

Married Women (53% of female voters) 47%

Unmarried (44% of voters) 58%

Unmarried Men (41% of male voters) 52%

Unmarried Women (47% of female voters) 63%

Votecast reports Biden support by gender and marital status (which interacts with age and race as well) as:

Married men (28% of voters) 42%

Married women (28% of voters) 47%

Unmarried men (18% of voters) 52%

Unmarried women (26% of voters) 62%

Age

The Votecast (CNN) breakdown of Biden support by age was:

18-29 61% (60%) 

30-44 54% (52%)

45-64 48% (49%)

65+    48% (47%)

CNN also had a different age breakdown with Biden support as follows:

18-24  65%

24-29  54%

30-39  51%

40-49  54%

50-64  47%

65+     47%

Household Income

Votecast showed very little difference in Biden support by household income with Biden support as follows:

Under $50,000 51%

$50,000 to $99,999 48%

$100,000 or more 53%

Age, gender, race, education and region all mattered much more in the Votecast results.

But, the CNN exit poll showed Biden and Trump support by income as follows:

Under $30,000 54-46%

$30,000 to $49,999 56-43%

$50,000 to $99,999 57-42%

$100,000 to $199,999 41-58%

$200,000 or more 44-44%

This shows a significant difference between pro-Biden lower and middle income voters and higher income pro-Trump voters, with results that flatly contradict the Votecast data.

By Region, Race and Religion

The CNN results are broken out by region. In that polling, by region and religion and race, Biden support was as follows:

                East-Midwest-South-West

White 46%-41%-32%-50%

Black 94%-81%-88%-77%

Latino 78%-67%-55%-67%

Other 75%-73%-28%-47% (tie).

Asian 63%-NA-NA-63%

It isn't clear to me what populations are driving the 4% of people in "other race" category in the CNN polls, particularly because it is so disparate regionally (even more so than white voters). The "other race" category is 4% of voters in the East, 5% in the Midwest, 3% in the South, and 5% in the West.

"Other race" might include a significant share of U.S. born Mestizo or Mulatto people rightly characterized as Hispanic who don't have a self-identification as "Latino", perhaps because they are assimilated into U.S. culture and are not fluent in the Spanish language.

Another possibility (not mutually exclusive), suggested by the unexpected conservative lean of Native Americans, Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders in the Votecast results, is that some people who identify as "American" described themselves as "Native American" or "Native Hawaiian" on the theory that they were born in the U.S. or in Hawaii, respectively, particularly in the South and West, while people in the East and Midwest who identify as "other race" may be mostly mixed race, South Asian or Middle Eastern. Per Wikipedia:

Pacific Islander Americans make up 0.5% of the U.S. population including those with partial Pacific Islander ancestry, enumerating about 1.4 million people. The largest ethnic subgroups of Pacific Islander Americans are Native Hawaiians, Samoans, Chamorros, Fijians, Palauans and Tongans.

There are significant Pacific Islander populations in American Samoa, Guam and the Mariana Islands, but none of those places have residents who vote in the Presidential general election. Native Hawaiians wherever they reside in the U.S., make up 43% of the total number of Pacific Islanders in the U.S., with a large share of the two largest runner up sub-categories of Pacific Islanders (Samoans 15.1%, and Chamorro 12.2%) living outside any U.S. state and outside the District of Columbia.

As of the 2010 census there were 1,164,575 Pacific Islanders who lived in a U.S. state or in the District of Columbia. There were 358,951 in Hawaii (26% of the population), 37,994 in Utah (1.9%), 11,360 in Alaska (1.5%), 320,036 in California (1.4%), 35,435 in Nevada (1.1%), 73,213 in Washington State (1.0%), 26,936 in Oregon (0.7%) and 28,431 in Arizona (0.4%) and smaller percentages of the population of every other state (including all states in the East, the Midwest and the South).

Meanwhile, about 0.9% of Americans are Native American or Alaska Natives. This is highest in Alaska (14.8%), New Mexico (9.4%), South Dakota (8.8%), Oklahoma (8.6%), Montana (6.3%), North Dakota (5.4%), Arizona (4.6%), Wyoming (2.4%), Washington  State (1.5%), Idaho (1.4%), Oregon (1.4%), North Carolina (1.3%), Nebraska (1.2%), Nevada (1.2%), Utah (1.2%), Colorado (1.1%), Minnesota (1.1%), California (1.0%), Kansas (1.0%) and Wisconsin (1.0%). The only states with a Native American population of more than 2% included in the CNN survey were Montana and Arizona.

The percentage of Native Americans, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders who live outside the West is quite small.

                East-Midwest-South-West

Protestant/Other Christian 57%-37%-32%-40%

Catholic 43%-48%-58%-62%

Other NA-NA-70%-NA

None 60%-66%-54%-75%

The regional differences in Catholic support for Biden probably mostly reflect the relative proportions of white and Hispanic Catholics in these regions. Catholics in the East and Midwest are much more often likely to be white than in the South and the West.

It likewise isn't clear to me what religious self-identifications are driving the "other religion" category that accounts for 8% of respondents in the CNN polls (or the 8% of Votecast poll respondents who are "something else" religiously, either). This may be mostly people who identify as "spiritual but not religious" because their Biden preferences are fairly high.

According to Pew:

[T]he share of U.S. adults who identify with non-Christian faiths has ticked up slightly, from 5% in 2009 to 7% today. This includes a steady 2% of Americans who are Jewish, along with 1% who are Muslim, 1% who are Buddhist, 1% who are Hindu, and 3% who identify with other faiths (including, for example, people who say they abide by their own personal religious beliefs and people who describe themselves as “spiritual”).

Latino voters are 50% Catholic, 25% Protestant/Other Christian, 6% Other Religious Affiliation and 20% No Religious Affiliation in the CNN poll.

White voters are 25% Catholic, 46% Protestant/Other Christian, 3% Jewish, 6% Other Religious Affiliation and 20% No Religious Affiliation in the CNN poll.

Black voters are 10% Catholic, 56% Protestant/Other Christian, 3% Jewish, 14% Other Religious Affiliation, and 16% No Religious Affiliation in the CNN poll. The Jewish percentage should be zero, but 3% seems too high, although this could be simply a statistical fluke for a population that is 0.39% of the total sample of about 15,590 voters (i.e. about 61 black Jewish respondents, who may be more motivated to respond to an exit poll than the average black voter).

Voters in the East are 30% Catholic, 31% Protestant/Other Christian, 3% Jewish, 11% Other Religious Affiliation, and 24% No Religious Affiliation (a combined 38% non-Christian) in the CNN poll.

Voters in the Midwest are 28% Catholic, 47% Protestant/Other Christian, 2% Jewish, 8% Other Religious Affiliation, and 15% No Religious Affiliation (a combined 25% non-Christian) in the CNN poll.

Voters in the South are 19% Catholic, 56% Protestant/Other Christian, 2% Jewish, 8% Other Religious Affiliation, and 15% No Religious Affiliation  (a combined 25% non-Christian) in the CNN poll.

Voters in the West are 25% Catholic, 33% Protestant/Other Christian, 2% Jewish, 6% Other Religious Affiliation, and 35% No Religious Affiliation (a combined 43% non-Christian) in the CNN poll.

The percentage of voters who are Jewish also seems too uniform nationally.

State Variation By Race and Religion

The results are broken down state by state for the 24 states available (of which there are 18 with a Latino vote breakdown, 18 with a black vote breakdown, and 4 with an Asian vote breakdown), below the fold.

Black support for Biden was greater than Biden support in any other racial category in every state with a breakdown available. 

Asian support for Biden and Latino support for Biden was similar in all states where both data points were available.

Both Asian support for Biden and Latino support for Biden was greater than White support for Biden in every state where these data points were available.

White Support By State And By Religion

White support for Biden (in the 24 states surveyed) ranged from a low of 21% to Alabama to a high of 63% in Washington State, a 42 percentage point spread. Support for Biden was three times as great in the state with the most support as it was in the state with least support.

Broken down by religion, white support for Biden was highest among religiously affiliated non-Jewish, non-Christians at 65%, then no religious whites at 61%, then Catholics 44%, and then Protestants (and other non-Catholic Christians) at 27%. Among all born again or Evangelical white Christians it was 24% and among all whites who were not born again or Evangelical Christians it was 56%. 

Education explains some of the variation with 51% of college educated whites supporting Biden and 32% of whites who are not college educated supporting Biden, but this comes with an overlay of regional culture and religion that also partially drives this difference.

For example, 34% of white voters with college degrees with born again or Evangelical Christians, while 46% of white voters without college degrees were born again or Evangelical Christians.

Black Support By State and By Religion

Black support for Biden (in the 18 states with statistically significant samples) ranged from a low of 71% in Kentucky to a high of 94% in New York State, a 23 percentage point spread. Support for Biden was 32% greater in the state with most support from the state with least support.

Support for Trump among black voters was highest in states with quite small black populations (on a percentage basis). 

There was no break down by religion for black voters other than black Protestants/Other Christians which was identical to black voters as a whole. 

Latino Support By State And By Religion

Latino support for Biden (in the 18 states with statistically significant samples) ranged from a low of 53% in Florida to a high of 75% in New York State, a 22 percentage point spread. Support for Biden was 42% greater in the state with most support than in the state with least support. 

Broken down by religion, Latino support for Biden was highest among Catholics 71%, then those with no religious affiliation 55%, and then Protestants 51%.

Asian Support By State And By Religion

Asian support for Biden (in the 4 states with statistically significant samples) ranged from a low of 60% in Virginia to 76% in California, a 16 percentage point spread. Support for Biden was 27% greater in the state with most support from the state with least support. 

There was no break down by religion for Asian voters. 

Every state had percentages of white voters:

States where white voters overall favored Biden:

Washington 63%

Oregon 58%

Colorado 57%

Maine 53%

New Hampshire 52%

Minnesota 51%

California 51%

New York 50%

State where white voters overall favored Trump:

Arizona 46%

Wisconsin 46%

Virginia 45%

Michigan 44%

Nevada 43%

Iowa 43%

Pennsylvania 42%

Ohio 39% (Ohio shows some of the biggest intrastate variations in support for Biden by white voters).

Montana 39%

Florida 37%

North Carolina 33% (North Carolina also shows very large intrastate variations in support for Biden by white voters).

Texas 33%

Kentucky 33%

Georgia 30%

South Carolina 26% (66% of voters were white compared to 64% of the citizens).

Alabama 21% (74% of voters were white compared to 65% of the population, this low non-white voter turnout shifted the state about 6.2 percentage points towards Trump, albeit not enough to make a difference in the outcome when Biden won just 36.7% of the vote in the state).

There was only modest variation between states in the black vote support for the respective states where it was statistically significant:

New York 94%

North Carolina 92%

Pennsylvania 92%

Wisconsin 92%

Michigan 92%

Ohio 91%

Texas 90%

South Carolina 90%

Virginia 89%

Florida 89%

Alabama 89%

Georgia 88%

California 82%

Nevada 80%

Minnesota 77%

Iowa 76%

Kentucky 71%

There was less variation between states in the Hispanic vote support for the respective candidates in the states where it was statistically significant:

New York 76%

California 75%

Pennsylvania 69%

Iowa 67%

Georgia 62%

Virginia 61%

Arizona 61%

Nevada 61%

Minnesota 60%

Wisconsin 60%

Colorado 58%

Texas 58%

North Carolina 57%

Ohio 57%

Michigan 55%

Florida 53%

Just four states had statistically significant numbers of Asian voters who were surveyed:

California 76%

Nevada 64%

Texas 63%

Virginia 60%