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24 February 2021

Split Tickets Rare In 2020

The total number of split districts in 2020 was 16 (3.7% of Congressional Districts).

Nine districts elected a Republican representative, yet voted for Joe Biden (many in California, but also Texas, Florida, Nebraska, Pennsylvania and New York).

Seven districts elected a Democratic representative while voting for Donald Trump (all in the Northeast or Midwest). 

This is the lowest level of district-splitting, both in percentage and absolute terms, since 1920, a full century earlier. That year, 11 out of 344 districts produced a split result (3.2% of Congressional Districts). 

In 2016 and 2012, 35 and 26 districts (respectively) split their tickets. 


Why?

Some of this is due to cleaner ideological sorting between candidates based upon party ID now that "realignment" has run its course. All liberal candidates are Democrats, all conservative candidates are Republicans. The last of the conservative Democratic candidates and moderate Republican candidates are disappearing. 

Gerrymandering can't explain much of the shift from 2012 to 2020 since all of the districts were drawn based upon the 2010 census.

Looking at the few districts that still did split, the Presidential vote tends to be a better reflection of local political leanings, with split tickets tending to reflect particular members of Congress who are more conservative Democrats, or more moderate Republicans, as the case may be, relative to the national Presidential candidate of the same party.

Also, partisan identities are hardening and the ranks of moderates are growing smaller. 



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