Despite Twenty Years Of U.S. Backing Of Afghan Government, Taliban Still Strong

After more than twenty years in Afghanistan, the United States seems poised to have had little more lasting impact than the Soviets did there. 

The situation was bad before the U.S. announced its planned withdrawal (in a case where President Biden is continuing and making specific a general policy direction initiated by President Trump), and has seriously deteriorated in the meantime.

When the U.S. first intervened in Afghanistan in the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks in the U.S., the Taliban had been on the brink of consolidating control over the country against an alliance of secular warlords. The U.S. and its allies temporarily routed the Taliban and set up a democratic Afghan government (with Islam as the established national religion), which did well at first leaning heavily on foreign military support. But over time, the government of Afghanistan has faltered and the Taliban has clawed its way back to influence in much of the country, especially in rural areas.

The Taliban has taken control of more than 80 districts in the two months since launching its offensive against the Afghan government after President Joe Biden announced the U.S. would withdraw its forces from the country by September.

In many cases, Afghan security forces have turned over district centers, abandoned military bases, surrendered to the Taliban and handed over their weapons, vehicles and other war material without a fight. The Taliban’s multi-year strategy of gaining influence in rural districts to then pressure the population centers is paying dividends.

Prior to the Taliban offensive, which began in earnest on May 1, the date that the U.S. government originally committed to completing its withdraw under the Doha agreement, the Taliban controlled 73 of Afghanistan’s 407 districts, and contested 210, according to an ongoing assessment by FDD’s Long War Journal. The Biden administration moved the withdraw date to Sept. 11, 2021, the 20-year anniversary of Al Qaeda’s attack on American soil – which it plotted and executed largely from Afghanistan.

The Taliban began to seize territory once the May 1 deadline expired, and as of June 29, 2021, now controls 157 districts. Much of the Taliban gains are in the north, and that has put multiple provincial capitals under threat. Taliban fighters have entered the cities of Kunduz and Pul-i-Khumri and are on the outskirts of Mazar-i-Sharif and Taloqan. Other provincial capitals, such as Maimana and Faizabad, are under direct Taliban threat.

The Taliban has largely gained ground in districts that were previously contested. The number of contested districts dropped from 210 on May 1 to 157 today. However, at least 10 districts flipped entirely from government controlled to Taliban controlled without ever being labeled as contested.

From here.