What should we do if a predicted asteroid impact that we can predict, which is big enough to cause regional damage, but not big enough to end the species, makes it necessary to evacuate hundreds of thousand or millions of people from their homes, perhaps permanently?
I'm skeptical that we as a global human race could listen to scientists and behave in a civil way, but one can hope.
Throughout recorded history, humans have crossed national borders to seek safety in nearby countries. The reasons for displacement have been generated by phenomena of terrestrial origin, but exposure to unexpected extra-terrestrial threats poses a different scenario. An asteroid impact warning implies a change of paradigm which would represent a historic precedent.
In this regard, the analogies with natural disasters must be considered, along with multiple possible scenarios, and legal aspects related to a) the legal framework to regulate this situation; b) the action and responsibility of the states; and c) the definition of impact refugee and the reconfiguration of traditional concepts such as deterritorialized states.
In addition, the decision-making process and the actors involved must be led by a cooperative effort to improve international law. These new circumstances should be established with a consideration of inequalities between the states, and an aim of protecting humanity through democratic solutions using the safest, most effective techniques.
Elisa Simó-Soler, Eloy Peña-Asensio, "From impact refugees to deterritorialized states: foresighting extreme legal-policy cases in asteroid impact scenarios" arXiv:2111.13643 (November 5, 2021) (Acta Astronautica (in revision)).
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