The Regions That Can Grow Particular Crops Is Shifting

One of the most trivial and obvious, but nonetheless important, implications of global warming is that the places where agricultural crops grow will shift. A new study breaks down the details of that with respect to four representative warm climate crops.

A new analysis predicts that, as climate change progresses, the most suitable regions for growing coffee arabica, cashews, and avocados will decline in some of the main countries that produce these crops.

Replacement growing locations may emerge, but that isn't guaranteed, because the appropriate growing conditions for a crop include not just mean temperature, but also rainfall patterns, soils, and other parts of the ecosystem that are symbiotic with the crops in cryptic ways.

For example, even at the same mean temperatures, crops that grow well in a Mediterranean weather pattern may not grow well in a South Asian monsoonal weather pattern.

See "Suitable growing regions for coffee, cashews, and avocados predicted to shift as Earth warms: First-of-its-kind analysis suggests declines in land suitability in most major producing countries." ScienceDaily citing a PLOS press release (26 January 2022).