Politico named the most dangerous place on earth right now.The "Suwałki Gap" from Belarus to Kaliningrad, where the border of Poland and Lithuania now passes is the most dangerous place because of the threat of a direct conflict between Russia and NATO.
From here.
The war in Ukraine has probably decreased the threat posed by this potential trigger of a war with NATO.
A Russia-NATO war (or nuclear conflict of some kind) is more likely to be triggered by Russian frustration with military and intelligence aid provide to Ukraine in the war there, in my humble opinion.
Still, this is definitely a significant and under appreciated potential flash point between Russia and NATO.
On the other hand, this also represents a diplomatic opportunity.
If Poland and/or Lithuania were to offer Russia a tiny strip of land providing access between Kaliningrad and Belarus in a NATO brokered deal, despite the fact that the war in Ukraine has gone badly for Russia, this could allow Russia to save face and would make it harder for Russia to demonize NATO.
This could be done in connection with a global deal that also resolved the remaining conflict in Ukraine, or could be a side agreement, muddying the waters of the Russia-NATO relationship.
On the other hand, outside a global agreement, this could look like appeasement and encourage further Russian military aggression.
Or, Poland takes Kalinigrad from Russia and gives it back to Prussia.
ReplyDeleteHistorical reasons.
"The settlement of modern-day Kaliningrad was founded in 1255 on the site of the ancient Old Prussian settlement Twangste by the Teutonic Knights"
Not sure how Poland would give it back to Prussia which no longer exists. Give it to Germany as a successor state?
ReplyDeleteAnyway, that would probably not help the cause of avoiding war.
"probably not help the cause of avoiding war."
ReplyDeleteNot trying to avoid.
War is good for the defense industry; and what is good for them is good for the country.
Yeah no, nukes are bad for butterflies and flowers.
ReplyDelete