A Mid-Term Election Forecast

It is still early in the mid-term Congressional election calendar, and 538 has data and survey driven election forecasts for the midterm Congressional elections. 

The Senate race predictions are favorable to Democrats who currently hold the 50-50 Senate with the support of a Democratic Vice President ruling with them in tie votes, compared to a "normal" midterm election where the party of the President usually loses ground, in substantial part because Republicans have fields some weak candidates in competitive races. The most likely outcomes are a continued 50-50 split or 51-49 seat Democratic majority in the Senate.

But, the current forecast is that the Democrats are more likely than not to lose their 221-214 majority (218 seats are needed for a majority, so Democrats can lose 3 seats and retain their majority) in the U.S. House of Representatives. The most likely result would be about a 229-206 seat Republican majority, flipping about 15 seats "currently held" by Democrats (although since the maps are post-redistricting maps with some states losing seats and other states gaining them, the "currently held" language shouldn't be taken literally).

Democrats have been improving their predicted outcome since the U.S. Supreme Court overruled Roe v. Wade, but it isn't clear whether those gains will last long enough and be strong enough to tip the balance in November.

538 also has Governor's race forecasts (Kansas is the only toss-up race):