Down To the Wire

It currently looks like Republicans will win 50 U.S. Senate seats, Democrats will win 49 U.S. Senate seats, and Georgia will go into a runoff election won in the first round by the incumbent Democrat by the narrowest of margins. If the Republican wins the Georgia runoff, made possible by a 2.1% vote share for the libertarian candidate, Republicans would hold the thinnest of possible leads in the U.S. Senate.

Based upon current leads in counting, according to the Washington Post, sometimes as thin as the 64 vote lead of the Democrat challenging Lauren Boebert in CO-3, Republicans are poised to retake the U.S. House of Representatives with a 219 seat majority (they need 218 seats for a majority), a shift of six seats towards the Republicans. 

There are fourteen pink seats, in which the Republican is currently leading but it is too close to call, and thirty-three light blue seats, in which the Democrat is currently leading but it is too close to call, in the chart below (although one of the light blue Colorado seats, CO-8, was called for the Democrat less than a hour ago).

I remain optimistic that the Democrat will flip CO-3 because most of the uncounted votes remaining are in Democratic party leaning counties. Turnout in CO-3 was more than 63% of active registered voters, which is respectable for a midterm election. Statewide, that rate was 55%.

A return to the status quo of a 50-50 Democratic majority in the Senate and a 218 seat Democratic majority in the House also remains well within the realm of possibility.

Not all the dust has settled and upsets are still possible. But, it is down to the wire.