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24 February 2023

International Polling On The Ukraine War A Year Later And More

Most of the results of a new multinational survey of public opinions about Russia and the Ukraine war are what one would expect. But, the extent to which India and Turkey lean towards Russia was somewhat surprising. 

The view that Russia is seen as stronger in China, India, and Turkey is particularly hard to fathom.

A new survey – of 10 European countries, as well as India, Turkey, China and Russia – released this week by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) found that, despite the challenges of the past year, Europeans remain united in their backing for Ukraine, and in their wanting to see Russia defeated in the conflict.

This is reflected, most notably, by the togetherness of Europeans on the bloc’s energy supply. ECFR’s survey shows that majorities in the surveyed EU-9 support a continued embargo on Russian fuel, despite the real-world harm it is causing in some national economies. 
It is also telling from citizens’ perceptions of Russia, one year on, that upwards of two-thirds of those of the EU-9 (66 percent) and Great Britain (77 percent) see Russia as an “adversary” or “rival” of their country – a position that puts them in line with the US (where 71 percent noted this view). . . . 

In Europe and the US, for instance, the prevailing view among respondents is that Ukraine needs to regain all its territory, even if that means a longer war. The opposite is the case in China, Turkey and India, where most respondents prefer a rapid end to the war, even if that would see Ukraine ceding territory to Russia.

The reputation of Russia, almost a year into the Kremlin’s so-called three-day “special operation”, also varies wildly.

ECFR’s survey found that three quarters of respondents in China (76 percent), India (77 percent) and Turkey (73 percent) now see Russia as stronger, or as strong as it was a year ago.

In some cases, too, the view that Russia is a global “ally” or “partner” of their country is stratospheric – India (80 percent), China (79 percent), Turkey (69 percent) – a stark contrast to the responses of EU-9 and the rest of the West, where Russia is not only viewed as fundamentally weaker, but described as “aggressive” and “untrustworthy” by pluralities.

Other developments a year after the start of the Ukraine War include the tightening of U.S. sanctions on Russia and bipartisan expressions of political support for Ukraine from both Democrats and about 50 Republicans in Congress including the U.S. Senate's minority leader.

But, the New York Times reports that the war has allowed Putin to consolidate power and crush liberal and Western influences in Russian society at home, despite the debacle of military outcomes that even the people most downbeat about Russia's military strength wouldn't have guessed could occur.

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