Surveys About Know Facts

One of the interesting kinds of media story is one that looks at survey responses to questions that aren't opinions and instead are matters that can be determined to be factually true or not from sources not reasonable subject to question. The Washington Post chart above from today is an example of that kind of story.

These stories make people who know the truth feel good about themselves and feel a bit of contempt for the ignorant because mostly they are willfully ignorant about those facts. The people who are willfully ignorant about those facts, however, don't read the Washington Post or other reliable sources of information that would report that news. The fact that a survey on a question like this was done at all may also cause Republican supporters to believe that the matter asked about must be a matter of opinion, although, of course, that isn't the case any more than the law of gravity.

Extremely solid scientific evidence establishes that there is a new wave of COVID-19 dominated by a particular new strain underway in the United States. When people say that there is no new wave in answer to the survey, they don't just have a difference of opinion, they are factually wrong. I could cite to data that shows that they are factually wrong, but the existence of a new COVID wave or not this autumn and winter isn't the point of this post.

As noted in another recent post, conservative Republicans are the most likely to have factually wrong beliefs about the world. For example, more than 75% of Democrats correctly answer that there is a new COVID wave underway, while a thin majority of Republicans deny the truth.

One commentator to that post noted, this GOP base that no longer believes truthful and accurate information about reality got there, in part, because they have the losing hand in our economy and society, while the sources of truthful and accurate information about reality have prospered, so they figure that the intellectual elite is the source of their woes and doesn't trust them.

But of course, it is a vicious cycle. If you don't believe truthful and accurate information, you are more prone to make bad decisions, and that leaves you even worse off. In this case, not believing in the threat has made Republicans anti-vax.

This, in turn, will causally, and almost certainly, lead to Republicans being disproportionately likely to get more seriously sick and being disproportionately likely to die during the next COVID wave. Many tens of thousands of mostly elderly conservative Republicans will die as a result during this COVID wave.

Worse yet, this anti-vax sentiment among Republicans is not confined to the COVID vaccine anymore, even though it was once rare among Republicans except members of very extreme religious sects and hard core left wing Hippie vegan types, and wasn't nearly so partisan.

So, not only are Republicans going to suffer and die more from COVID-19 this fall and winter, they are also going to suffer more from RSV (a severe respiratory virus for which a new vaccine is being released for the first time this fall), and the flu. This will disproportionately kill many thousands of additional, mostly elderly conservative Republicans.

And, in proof that people aren't just cynical self-maximizers out for their own good, this will make lots of Democrats very sad. This is so even though this will give Democrats a slight political edge in the 2024 election on the margins, since elderly conservative Republican voters have very reliable voter turnout. The impact is spread out widely so the electoral effect will be  barely noticeable statistically, but it could tip a close political race or two, which in a closely politically divided nation that is close to 50-50 in national elections, could be a big deal.

Meanwhile, it will further aggravate the perception of the Republican base that their being persecuted (driving conspiracy theories with it). This is so even though this time, this Republican misfortune is basically their own fault.

Unfortunately, it is well known that presenting people with facts alone rarely causes people to change their factually false beliefs, if this is at odds with their overall partisan and cultural worldviews. Ultimately, if Republicans want their supporters to get sick and die less often, rather than simply pandering to them, they have to craft their messages from the inside rather than simply receiving them from non-Republican experts from outside their political and cultural circle. So far, very few Republican leaders are brave enough to attempt this feat. So, instead, they lead their supporters further along the vicious circle.