Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel. More than a thousand people have died in the fighting so far, disproportionately Israelis in the initial attack, with more than 150 hostages taken. It is a battle won for Hamas in the first moments, but almost certainly at a grave cost and a lost war in the long run, unless neighboring countries intervene as they have tentatively shown interest in doing. The U.S. has mobilized its aircraft carriers and jet fighters for possible involvement. Some possible scenarios, in the medium run, in rough order of likelihood are:
1. Israel's massive counterattack crushes the Palestinians. The Arab states don't intervene. Already miserable Palestinian life gets even worse. Netanyahu consolidates power in the face of a corruption scandal. Israeli politics move to the right.
2. The Arab states try to intervene. The U.S. flexes it muscles without actually getting into shooting itself on any significant scale. The Arab states back down. Inside Israel, the effort to crush Palestinians is slightly emboldened relative to the first scenario. The U.S. starts to recognize that Saudi Arabia is not its friend for a few years before it forgets again. Netanyahu consolidates power in the face of a corruption scandal. Israeli politics move to the right.
3. The Arab states try to intervene. The U.S. intervenes. The Arab state forces intervening forces are crushed. Hamas is crushed. The U.S.-Israeli bond is strengthened. The U.S. transitions to hostile relations with the Arab world. Oil prices soar. The transition to EVs speeds up. Netanyahu consolidates power in the face of a corruption scandal in the short run, but Israeli politics return to the status quo in a few years.
4. The Arab states try to intervene. The U.S. doesn't act. Israel survives in a costly war. U.S. guilt and Israeli resentment taint their relationship going forward. The Palestinians are forcibly exiled from Palestine. Israeli politics shift to a far-right majority. The U.S. transitions to hostile relations with the Arab world. Oil prices soar. The transition to EVs speeds up.
5. The Arab states try to intervene. The U.S. doesn't act. Israel is genocidally crushed, with refugees fleeing to the U.S. and Western Europe. It is a holocaust class event in history with massive U.S. guilt. The Middle East, without Israel, soon dissolves into tribal-like divisions again, replacing Cold War style Arab-Israeli tensions with small wars. The U.S. transitions to hostile relations with the Arab world. The transition to EVs speeds up. Israeli politics cease to exist.
6. The Arab states try to intervene. The U.S. intervenes. Iran and/or Russia goes nuclear. There are Hiroshima grade losses in Tel Aviv and some other Israeli cities. There is a non-negligible chance that Mecca is nuked by Israel. Arab state intervening forces are crushed. The Palestinians are slaughtered en masse. The U.S. transitions to hostile relations with the Arab world. Oil prices soar. The longer term political implications are unpredictable.
The stated goal of Hamas is to mobilize other Arab states to support it. But, the only scenario where Hamas and the Palestinians come out ahead is the fifth scenario, which is a quite unlikely one. Ordinary Palestinians aren't necessarily happy with the action of the hotheads who launched the attack.
The Arab states don't give a crap about the Palestinians
ReplyDelete@DaveBarnes
ReplyDeleteYou may be right, but the rhetorically make a big deal about them, and there were making noises in the early hours after Hamas struck about intervening.
That was done no later than when the U.S. and British said they were sending ships and planes to the Eastern Med.
Needless to say, history has shown in the first week already of this conflict, that Scenario 1 is where we are heading.
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