2024 Presidential Election Horse Race Redux

The anticipated outcomes of the 2024 Presidential election, assuming that the contest is between Biden and Trump in the general election.

Biden and Trump are in a statistical tie in battleground state and national polling. Major health events for either candidate, a conviction of Trump for a felony in one of the four criminal cases he's facing, a SCOTUS decision holding that Trump is not eligible to serve as President because he is an insurrectionist, and changing perceptions of the national economy as the election gets closer, could all profoundly influence the current status quo.

Biden starts the general election with 226 likely votes in the Electoral College and Trump with 235. To get to the 270 needed for victory, one of them will have to harvest some of the 77 votes up for grab in half a dozen states (shown with the number of EVs of each): Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10).

Biden needs 44 of those electoral votes (3-5 of the six states depending upon which ones) to win. Trump needs 35 of those electoral votes (2-4 of those states, depending upon which ones) to win. If they each get 269 electoral votes, which is very possible, a contingent election in Congress resolved the Presidential race, and Trump probably wins in that forum, where each state gets a single vote (if a majority of that state's delegation can support a single candidate).

Biden won all six of these states running against Trump in 2020. Trump won all of these six states except Nevada in 2016, running against Hillary Clinton.

Michigan has a blue trifecta at the state level and both of its U.S. Senators are Democrats. Georgia has a red trifecta at the state level but elected two Democrats to the U.S. Senate.

In Arizona and Wisconsin Republicans control the state legislature but have Democratic Governors. Wisconsin has one U.S. Senator from each party. In Arizona, both of their U.S. Senators were elected as Democrats although Kyrsten Sinema left the Democratic Party despite the fact that she still caucuses with the Democrats.

In Nevada, Democrats control the state legislature and both of its U.S. Senate seats, but there is a Republican Governor.

In Pennsylvania, both U.S. Senators and their Governor are Democrats and Democrats control the state house, but Republicans control the state senate.

Of course, other states where one candidate or the other is shown as likely to win, could defy expectations.