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30 September 2024

The Weather

This summer and early fall (from May to September) has been the hottest in the history of Phoenix. On September 28, 2024, it had a 118º Fahrenheit day, smashing the record for the hottest September day in history there by a large margin. It had 113 or so consecutive days in excess of 100º  this summer, setting another record. 

The frequency of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has surged in recent years (eight in eight years, after eight in the 57 years before that). Hurricane Helen was the most deadly hurricane (and over a larger geographic area) than any in the last fifty years (at least). There is a good chance that the Gulf Coast will be hit by another Hurricane in the next two weeks.

Huge wildfires in the Western U.S. and Canada are not unrelated.

This is likely to be the "new normal" with climate change. If so, it make make Phoenix and some other cities in the South and Southwest uninhabitable at some point in the next fifty or hundred years (or sooner). New Orleans has already experienced a major exodus after Hurricane Katrina. The vast low lying portions of Florida are particularly vulnerable.

This isn't limited to North America either. 

For example, Central and Eastern Europe have record breaking flooding and Nepal is experiencing catastrophic floods and landslides. Before that, Europe has had some record heat waves in the last few years. 

Glaciers are vanishing rapidly. Arctic ice caps are smaller and shorter lived. Huge ice sheets are calving off Antarctica. Events that increase sea levels will increase non-linearly at current tipping points, i.e. sooner than one would expect with linear increases in sea level over time.

Much of this climate change is irreversible at this point, although we can stop doing things that cause it and slow down the rate of change going forward.

Climate change won't end humanity or civilization although it may result in some species extinctions beyond what mankind is already causing anyway by other means. It will result in noticeable changes in many critical places, however, that will impact human affairs.

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