Crime is at near record lows. The economy is exceedingly healthy. Why is this election even close?
The Quarterly Uniform Crime Report (Q2), January-June 2024, provides a preliminary look at crime trends for January through June 2024 compared to January through June 2023. A comparison of data from agencies that voluntarily submitted at least three or more common months of data for January through June 2023 and 2024 indicates reported violent crime decreased by 10.3%. Murder decreased by 22.7%, rape decreased by 17.7%, robbery decreased by 13.6%, and aggravated assault decreased by 8.1%. Reported property crime also decreased by 13.1%. . . .
Via the Sentencing Law and Policy Blog.Murder is down at the fastest rate ever recorded, easily eclipsing 2023’s previous record decline. Violent crime is down a fair amount — 4 or 5 percent — and will likely be the lowest reported violent crime rate since 1969 considering that 2023’s violent crime rate was virtually tied with 2014 for that honor. And property crime is down a ton thanks to the massive decline in motor vehicle theft following several years of huge increases.
I doubt that it would possible to disassemble the data, but it would be good to see this done using only municipalities/reporting areas that have a continuous reporting record. And then subsample it to ensure that it reflects the ethnic/social background of a larger reporting area (arms getting tired from waving here). The concern would be, as I have read occasionally and heard from others, that some areas, that one would naively expect to have high crime rates, are no longer reporting (or recording) complete crime statistics.
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