Birth rates in Japan to Japanese nationals are falling much more quickly than expected, and Japan has, so far, resisted allowing significant immigration. Policy efforts specifically targeted at increasing birth rates, with measures like economic incentives for parents, have a very poor record of success globally.
Japan must stop being overly optimistic about how quickly its population is going to shrink, economists have warned, as births plunge at a pace far ahead of core estimates.Japan this month said there were a total of 686,000 Japanese births in 2024, falling below 700,000 for the first time since records began in the 19th century and defying years of policy efforts to halt population decline. The total represented the ninth straight year of decline and pushed the country’s total fertility rate — the average number of children born per woman over her lifetime — to a record low of 1.15…The median forecast produced by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) in 2023 did not foresee the number of annual births — which does not include children born to non-Japanese people — dropping into the 680,000 range until 2039.
From the Financial Times.
Hum... culturally Korea and China are potential sources of immigrants to Japan. Unfortunately Japan managed somewhat offend them during the previous century. That leaves South East Asia? I guess the long term lesson is don't piss off people you want to join you, at least too much. What folks have we (the US) managed to piss off so much that would never hold hands with us?
ReplyDeleteJapan's problem is continuing to not welcome immigrants (a bargain it makes in exchange for cultural homogeneity). It isn't a shortage of people willing to migrate there.
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