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26 July 2024

TFR Around The World And Global Population Trends

From WikipediaThe 2023 data above does not exactly track the 2024 UN data analyzed below.

If you want a single indicator to measure economic development in a country or region, total fertility rate is one of the better ones.

Replacement rate for the world as a whole at TFR 2.3 is a bit higher than the replacement rate in the developed world of 2.1. 

The TFR of the world as a whole is 2.3 right now, which is right at global replacement rate. Thus, the world's population as a whole is on track to be neither growing nor shrinking in the long run once the "bumps" in existing demographics work their way though the overall population trends. In 1970, the global TFR was 4.8 and it was 5.1 in 1965.


From here.

The world population is currently at an all time high of 7.95 billion. The world population is expected by the U.N. to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, to 9.7 billion by 2050, and to 10.4 billion by 2100. I suspect that this estimate is high and that a peak will be reached sooner in time at a lower peak population, because that is the direction in which population estimates have been corrected in the past few decades. After that, the long term downward trend in TFR everywhere in the world as economic development advances is expected to gradually reduce the global population.

The highest TFR in the world, as of 2024, is in Niger at 6.6 and the lowest is in South Korea at 0.9 (Hong Kong would be lower still at 0.8, if it were a separate country). This is a significant shift since 1970, when the highest national TFR in the world (to the nearest 0.1) was 8.1 in Kenya, and the lowest national TFR in the world, in Finland, was 1.8.

A broad summary

If we break the world into a greater than 2.3 global replacement rate TFR and a 2.3 or below TFR bin, the countries in the higher TFR bin are:

Sub-Saharan Africa (45-5)

45 countries are in the higher bin (up to 6.6). This includes all 14 countries with TFR 4.4 and above, and 28 out of 29 countries with TFR 3.9 and above (the exception in Afghanistan at 4.3 in 15th place). 

5 countries: South Africa, and 4 island countries or dependencies near Africa, are in the lower bin.

Central Asia (6-0)

All 6 are in the higher bin (up to 4.3). 

Oceania (9-4) 

9 small countries or dependencies in the South Pacific are in the higher bin (up to 3.8). 

4 are in the lower bin (New Zealand, Australia, and 2 small island dependencies).

The Middle East, and North Africa (9-10)

9 countries or dependencies are in the higher bin (up to 3.6). 

Southeast Asia (4-7)

4 countries are in the higher bin: Papua New Guinea (3.1), East Timor (2.9), the Philippines (2.7) and Laos (2.4). 

The Americas (4-32) 

4 countries or dependencies are in the higher bin: French Guiana (3.4), Haiti (2.7), Bolivia (2.5), and Paraguay (2.4). 

West Asia (Turkey and Iran) and South Asia (1-8)

Pakistan (3.3) is in the higher bin. 

Europe (0-44)

All are in the lower bin (up to 2.0).

East Asia (0-6)

All are in the lower bin (up to 1.8).

A detailed summary is available below the break.
A detailed summary

Countries With TFR of 3.4 to 6.6

Of the 43 countries with the highest TFR in 2024 (according to the United Nations Population Fund), with a cutoff TFR of 3.4. 

* 37 (i.e. all but 6 of the highest 43) are in Sub-Saharan Africa (defined to include all countries in Africa except the five with a Mediterranean coast and Western Sahara) 

* Afghanistan 4.3 (15th). Afghanistan has endured civil wars, with only brief interruptions, since 1979. 

* There are three small South Pacific Island nations, Samoa 3.8 (32nd, population 207,501), Solomon Islands 3.8 (33rd, population 714,766),  and Vanuatu 3.6 (40th, population 313,046). The small population of this geographic region makes its high localized fertility stick out statistically when this would be diluted away in larger countries or dependencies.

* Yemen 3.6 (41st). Yemen has endured civil wars, with brief interruptions, since 1994 (it was divided into North Yemen and South Yemen from 1970-1990 leading to 300,000 internal migrants) and unlike many other Arabian countries, has no significant oil resources, although it was once a bread basket of the Arabian Peninsula.

* French Guiana (part of France) 3.4 (43rd, population of 294,436). French Guiana, on the South Atlantic coast of South America, in an overseas department of France, with a legal status within France similar to that of partially self-governing departments within European France. The small population of this geographic region makes its high localized fertility stick out statistically when this would be diluted away in larger countries or dependencies.

The 22 countries with TFR 3.3 to 2.9

The next tier of 22 countries ranked 44th to 60th in TFR with TFRs of 3.3 to 2.9 are more of a mixed bag:

* Five are in Sub-Saharan Africa.

* Three are other small South Pacific island nations, Kiribati (population 115,372), Tonga (population 105,221), and Tuvalu (population 11,639).

* Papua New Guinea is also in Oceania but isn't comparable to the other small island nations with high TFRs. It is an average sized country in area (about 10% larger than California) and population (9.6 million). Much of Papua New Guinea consists of subsistence farmers and herders who supplement their diets with hunting and gathering (some using plants and animals domesticated independently by Papuans about ten thousand years ago and tended to in the traditional manner) in its interior tropical jungles and highlands. Only 14% of the population lives in cities. It has three official lingua franca languages, and another 839 known indigenous languages (with an average of less than 10,000 speakers and many spoken by less than a thousand people), which is more languages per capita than any place else in the world. There is little modern technology or economic development in much of the country. Many indigenous Papuans are genetically part of the most basal branch of humans out of Africa (a clade shared with aboriginal Australians). It is rivaled only by the Amazon jungle, the most remote jungles of Borneo, and the deep Congo jungle, for the number of peoples who are basically uncontacted and have only the weakest and often indirect connections to the outside modern world.

* East Timor is geographically close to Papua New Guinea than it is to the other South Pacific Islands, and has some similarities to it, but isn't nearly so fragmented and isolated from the modern world.

* Three are former Soviet Republics in Central Asia (Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan).

* Three are Middle Eastern countries (Iraq, Israel, and the Israeli dependency of Palestine, within which Gaza's TFR is higher than 3.3 and the West Bank's TFR is lower than 3.3).

* Finally, there is Pakistan, a predominantly Muslim nation in South Asia, with 247.7 million people and a TRF of 3.3.

The 19 countries with TFR 2.9 to 2.4

The next tier of 19 countries ranked 61st to 79th in TFR, with a TFR of 2.9 to 2.4 (modestly above the global replacement rate and global average) are also heterogeneous: 

* Three are Sub-Saharan African countries.

* Three are small South Pacific island countries or dependencies (Fiji, Micronesia, and the U.S. territory of Guam). 

* Two are Southeast Asian countries, the Philippines and Laos.

* Five are countries in the Middle East or North Africa (Egypt, Algeria, Jordan, Syria, and Oman).

* Two are former Soviet Republics of Central Asia (Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan), and another is also a Central Asian country (Mongolia).

* Three are in the Americas: the Caribbean country of Haiti, and two countries in the interior of South America, Bolivia and Paraguay.

The 18 countries with TFR 2.3 to 2.2

There are 18 countries, ranked 80th to 94th in TFR, are in the liminal zone at or less than the global replacement TFR of 2.3 but more than the developed world replacement TFR of 2.1.

* Four are in the Middle East or North Africa.

* Six are in Central America or South America.

* One is in the Caribbean (the Dominican Republic).

* Three are in or near Africa (South Africa, the island nation of Seychelles, and the French dependency of Réunion).

* One (Cambodia) is in Southeast Asia.

The 110 countries with TFR of 2.1 or less

Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the U.S., every country in Europe, and every country in East Asia, ranked 95th to 204th in TFR, are at or below the developed world replacement rate TFR of 2.1. This list also includes:

* Two island countries near Africa, Cape Verde and Mauritius.

* Six countries in the Middle East or North Africa.

* Two West Asian countries, Iran and Turkey.

* Six of the seven countries in South Asia (all of them, including Maldives, except Pakistan).

* Six countries in Southeast Asia.

* Two dependencies in the South Pacific.

* There are eleven independent countries and nine dependencies in the Caribbean, and twelve countries in Latin America. 

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