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19 August 2024

Public Opinion On Secession

If Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska left the U.S. to become independent nations, the national politics of the United States would shift decisively to the left (and secession would likely be more popular in those states if it wasn't clearly illegal). 

The departure of those states, all of which are major U.S. petroleum producers, would also greatly weaken the power of oil and gas interests in Congress.


Per capita GDP by state (% fossil fuel revenue):

* Wyoming $67,326 - 80.0%
* North Dakota $74,005 - 65.9%
* Alaska $72,274 - 27.4%
* New Mexico $49,879 - 30.7%
* West Virginia $45,272 - 28.6%
* Oklahoma $49,745 - 20.4%
* Louisiana $52,079 - 13.9%
* Texas $66,646 - 9.2%
* Pennsylvania $60,910 - 8.6%
* Colorado $72,826 - 7.0%
* Montana $48,722 - 6.0%
* Ohio $59,242 - 3.9%
* Arkansas $45,892 - 3.8%
* Utah $64,130 - 2.6%
* Kansas $62,012 - 2.1%
* Kentucky $49,763 - 1.5%
* Mississippi $39,103 - 1.3%
* Alabama $47,324 - 0.9%
* California $82,975 - 0.4%
* Indiana $58,505 - 0.3%
* Illinois $67,768 - 0.3%
* Virginia $67,786 - 0.3%
* Michigan $54,574 - 0.2%
* South Dakota $61,251 - 0.2%
* Nebraska $72,879 - 0.1%
* Arizona $55,747 - Less than 0.005%
* Idaho $48,309 - Less than 0.005%
* Maryland $68,120 - Less than 0.005%
* Tennessee $59,694 - Less than 0.005%
* New York $90,731 - Less than 0.005%
* Florida $56,571 - Less than 0.005%
* Nevada $60,177 - Less than 0.005%
* Missouri $55,537 - Less than 0.005%

International comparisons (from here):

Oil Revenues as Percentage of GDP (per the World Bank):

Country
Most Recent Year
Most Recent Value
2019
43.9
2019
43.4
2019
42.1
2019
39.6
2019
25.1
2019
24.9
2019
24.2
2019
21.9
2019
18.8
2019
17.8
2019
16.9
2019
16.3
2019
14.4
2019
13.8
2019
7.4
2019
6.7
2019
5.6
2019
4.8
2019
4.7
2019
3.7
2019
3.6
In 2022, about 594,155 thousand (or 594 million) short tons of coal were produced in 21 states. Five states produced a total of about 433,894 thousand (or 434 million) short tons, equal to about 73% of total U.S. coal production. The five largest coal-producing states with production in thousand short tons, and their percentage shares of total U.S. coal production in 2022, were:

* Wyoming—244,730—41.2%
* West Virginia—83,448—14.0%
* Pennsylvania—39,701—6.7%
* Illinois—37,488—6.3%
* Kentucky—28,527—4.8%
60% of Texans surveyed opposed becoming an independent nation. However, 48% of Texas Republicans surveyed supported it.
From Wikipedia citing Post. Archived from the original on May 31, 2012. Retrieved May 25, 2010; "Daily Kos/Research 2000 Texas Poll". Daily Kos. Archived from the original on April 26, 2009. Retrieved November 16, 2012. Also from Wikipedia:
Secession is most popular in Alaska (36%), Texas (31%), and California (29%).
From here, as of February 2-5, 2024 (a partisan breakdown for Alaska isn't available due to the lack of both 100 Democrats and 100 Republicans in the sample, but given the experience in other states, secession is almost certainly more popular among Alaska Republicans than among Alaska Democrats).



For reference, here is a map of states that pay more in taxes than they receive in federal spending, and vice versa:

4 comments:

  1. Alaska seceding is hilarious. Russia could take the North Slope fields from the "Alaskan Army" probably without costing it much if any progress in Ukraine. Hell I'd put even money on the various indigenous peoples kicking out the Euros and taking it all back (tho still just keeping it warm for the Russians).

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  2. So what's the general story with NY and VA? Why are they such outliers?

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  3. VA is not an outlier. NY's economic supremacy could be managed without being part of the country politically. And, greater NYC is quite distinct from the larger country culturally.

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  4. In terms of taxes, VA is an outlier because it receives DC metro funding for the HQ of the federal government, while NYC generates lots of taxes as the financial center of the USA.

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