16 October 2009

Smoking Bans Save Lives

Bans on smoking in public and in workplaces can sharply reduce the number of heart attacks among both smokers and nonsmokers, according to a report issued Thursday by the Institute of Medicine. . . . Nearly 440,000 Americans die each year from smoking-related illnesses — more than one-third from heart disease — according to the heart association. About 38,000 of those deaths are related to secondhand smoke, which has many characteristics of other types of air pollution linked to heart disease. . . . The panel examined 11 studies of heart attacks in areas where bans were implemented and found a decrease in heart attacks in every study, ranging from a low of 6 percent to a high of 47 percent, depending on how the study was conducted.

"Such consistent data confirms for the committee that smoking bans do, in fact, decrease the rate of heart attacks," they wrote. One study, for example, found that hospitalizations for heart attacks in Pueblo dropped 41 percent in the three years after the city banned smoking in the workplace. In most of the studies, it was difficult to isolate the benefits for nonsmokers from those for smokers, but two of the studies showed a very clear benefit for nonsmokers. The committee also surveyed the evidence from laboratory studies in animals and concluded that these results supported bans.


From here.

Even a couple thousand lives associated with a low end estimate of the benefits and applied to second hand smoke recipients only overwhelmingly justifies the smoking ban. The actual number of lives saved is probably in the tens of thousands of lives per year. This is a benefit comparable in scale to entirley ending homicide.

15 October 2009

Who Commits And Suffers From School Violence?

In large urban public school systems, students who pose a high risk of committing violent behavior, and students who are most at risk of being victims of violence, turn out to be largely the same people. Murder statistics suggest that the same is true in the case of adults.

This reality suggests a very different approach to criminal justice than a reality in which violent criminals and victims of violent crime are predominantly drawn from two separate pools of people.

Ron Huberman in the Chicago Public Schools has radically revised the school district's approach to preventing school violence as a result.

Denver's 2009 General Election Update

There are two decisions that Denver voters make on this year's mail in ballot. School board races and Issue 300 (an anti-immigrant measure dealing with car impoundments). I previously covered the issue here. Ballots arrive at voter's doors this week and must make their way back to election officials by November 3.

The candidates for the school board race were profiled by the Denver Post here. Every Internet news source you could possibly want in the race can be found here.

The two biggest players in the race are a group of men connected to a trucking company on one side (supporting Seawell, Garcia and Jones) and the Denver Classroom Teachers Union on the other (supporting Scott, Merida and Easley).

A candidate's attitude towards charter schools is probably the key issue driving decisions to support particular candidates. While none of the candidates outright oppose charter schools or favor radical change in the balance between district run and charter schools, Scott annd Merida (and uncontested Kaplan in District 3) are decidedly more lukewarm about them, and Easley makes a point of pushing for a strong neighborhood school option (i.e. non-charter school) for every child.

Notably, the Denver Classroom Teacher's Association, whose slate of candidates in the last election was decidedly underwhelming, has put forward a slate of much better qualified candidates this year.

* Two candidates are running in the at large race, Mary A. Seawell and Christopher Scott. Deborah Sims Fard was running for the at large race, but withdrew.

Mary Seawell is the favorite in this race with endorsements from Mayor Hickenlooper, both at large school board incumbents, a host of current and former state and local elected officials from Denver, and three key unions, and a dramatic fundraising advantage. About half of her funds come from four men affliated with Timpte Inc., a trucking business, which has been a major patron of Cole Arts and Science Academy in North Denver. Seawell is an education consultant.

Christopher Scott, seems like a competent good guy, but doesn't have the army of well organized support lined up behind him. His is the candidate of choice of the Denver Classroom Teachers Association, however, the primary union representing teachers in Denver, as well as two incumbent DPS Board members, Arturo Jimenez, who is stepping down from District 5, and Jeanne Kaplan, who is running unopposed in District 3. Scott is a business consultant.

While it is hard to tell the policy differences between the two candidates, I trust the good political judgment of many of the people who have endorsed Seawell and join in supporting her in the at large school district race. Lining up support and having big networks of influential people available to you are crucial assets, in and of themselves, for a school board member.

I won't express an opinion in the other two school board races, in which I do not have a vote.

* Two candidates are running in the District 2 race (Michelle Moss in the incumbent in this open Southwest Denver seat): Ismael Garcia and Andrea E. Merida. Both candidates appear reasonably qualified and are community leaders. They appear to have similar levels of support.

Merida is supported by unopposed incumbent DPS Board member Jeanne Kaplan, the Denver Classroom Teachers Association; outgoing incumbent DPS member Arturo Jimenez, and the United Food and Commercial Workers. She is a web designer.

Garcia's support has come from businessmen including Phil Anschutz, Thomas Gamel of Rockmount Capital (who also supported Seawell), Steven Halstedt founder of Centennial Ventures founder; and Richard Saunders of Saunders Construction. Gracia is also supported by DPS School Board President Theresa Pena and Linda Childears, CEO of the Daniels Fund. Garcia is a community college administrator and is ordained as a minister.

* Five candidates are running in the District 5 race (Arturo Jimenez is the incumbent in this open Northwest Denver seat): Alton Clark, Nate Easley Jr., Vernon Jones Jr., Andrea Mosby and Jacqueline Shumway.

Veron Jones Junior's biggest supporters are the men associated with Timpte, Inc. (who also support Seawell). Also notable are Kristin Richardson, chair of the DPS Foundation board; former City Council President Elbra Wedgeworth; Anna Jo Haynes, Mile High Montessori president; and David Greenberg, founding board member of the Denver School of Science and Technology. Jones is a pastor.

Nate Easley Jr. is backed by the American Federation of Teachers Colorado, Public Education Committee of the CEA, and the Denver Classroom Teachers Association. Easley is Deputy Director, Denver Scholarship Foundation.

The other three candidates have far smaller dollar campaigns. Jacqueline Shuway, the only candidate for the District 5 seat who is not African American, has received small donations from Joel Judd, D-Denver, Denver City Council member Marcia Johnson and Denver City Council member Carla Madison. Alton Clark has not solicited any donations and spent very little on his campaign. Andrea Mosby didn't file a campaign finance report and skipped a candidate's forum on September 23. None of these three responded to a questionaire from Education News Colorado to which all of the other candidates in contested races did respond.

* The other districts in the Denver Public Schools (1, 3 and 4) are either uncontested (3) and have no seats up for election this year (1 and 4).

* Issue 300 is opposed by the City and almost everyone who has spoke out about it, including me. Zero tolerance policies useful produce bad results, and this would cost the city money that it doesn't have to spare.

14 October 2009

Sunday Library Hours Saved!

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper announced today that at the urging of City Council members, he will revise his proposed budget for next year by reversing about $910,000 in cuts for the library system. The additional library funding will allow the Byers branch to remain open for another year. . . . He also plans to restore four hours on Sunday to the Central Library downtown and add eight hour a week back at the Schlessman, Bear Valley, Montbello, Woodbury and University Hills branches. The mayor's original budget proposal for next year had targeted the library system for cuts in hours that stirred concern among the council members.


From here.

I made a case for saving Sunday library hours five days ago at this blog, and I'm gratified to see that they have been spared. This does not, however, mean that the library system has been held harmless. The Denver Public Library system is still facing $2.3 million of budget cuts in the revised budget, so it will be a lean year for them.

Funds were also put into the budget to "transition the La Alma Recreation Center to a nonprofit in such a way that it includes the surrounding neighborhood in the process over the next year." Presumably, that means no new funds are in the budget to transition or close three more recreation centers.

Of course, the budget still needs to be balanced, so programs saved were accompanied by programs lost. General fund homeless program funding originally proposed at $2.25 million will now drop to $1.25 million. Unobligated business-incentive funds, designed to bring new businesses into the city, will be reduced from about $700,000 to $250,000. Collective bargain costs have been reduced by $40,000 due to extended public safety union contracts.

Denver's Mayor has extraordinary budget powers compared to the Governor or President, so the Mayor's decision is likely to stick:

The mayor will deliver his final draft of the budget to the City Council on Monday. The public can speak out during an Oct. 26 hearing.

The council can amend the mayor's budget if seven of its 13 members agree to do so. The mayor can veto any changes, but the council can override a veto if nine members agree to do so.


The power of the City Council to amend the budget is also limited by the fact that the City's budget, unlike the federal budget, must balance and the City news voter approval for tax increases. In practice, this means that proposals by the City council to increase spending in one place must be accompanied by cuts somewhere else.

An important practical benefit of the system used in Denver is that it dramatically reduces the risk of a government shutdown in the face of legislative gridlock, something that happens on a regular basis at the federal level.

Against Banking?

A lengthy post at the Naked Capitalism blog makes the case that bankers (really investment bankers and bankers on the high end side of big commercial banks) have been taking more from the economic for their own benefit than they have added to it. The striking argument in that post is that:

Corporate stock repurchases and grants of stock to officers have exceeded new capital raised by the U.S. capital markets this decade. That means that the capital markets decapitalize the real economy.


If true, this implies that either the banking sector is broken, or that our economy had previously invested too much in the real economy. While my gut reaction is to say that the banking sector is broken, the overcapitalization theory has more to it than one might think.

The United States federal income tax system has strongly and systematically favored unearned income over earned income since not long after the tax reforms of 1986. For two decades profits from capital gains have been undertaxed and deferred, while tax losses from depreciation have been intentionally allowed before the economic reality justifies it.

Is it really any surprise that well counseled businesses have responded to these incentives?

In the U.S. economy, as a consequence of our tax laws, it makes economic sense to replace a job with a robot, even if the robot is actually slightly less cost effective. It makes sense from a tax perspective to retain earnings, rather than distributing them so that investors can put the funds to more productive uses in other entities, despite the fact that this makes it tempting for senior management to raid excess corporate cash. It makes sense from a tax perspective to reduce equity relative to debt. It makes sense from a tax perspective to compensate senior executives in a way that has a huge upside for the executive, but shifts all the downside risk to shareholders and creditors.

Banking and corporate governance probably are broken. But, the more frightening prospect is that the problems may run deeper. Perhaps the financial sector, while somewhat flawed, has fundamentally been doing what they system has been created to give it an incentive to do. If that is the case, then unwinding the mess and creating a new positive set of incentives may take more understanding and political will than our nation has at its disposal.

The finance industry is made up of a lot of very competent people with extreme tunnel vision. Lots of people know a great deal about their piece of the elephant, but very few people understand the organism as a whole very well. Many of the most affluent people on Wall Street have only a dim understanding of what role they play in making our economy productive. They trust the system. They follow the incentives that they have from their vantage point. They learn to tell enough of a myth about their value to society to provide a fig leaf for the spouses, children and the people they encounter at cocktail parties. But, only a very small percentage of individuals within the finance industry have more than a vague sense of how their efforts indirectly contribute to economic activity.

Most finance industry participants are like members of a symphony orchestra recording a harmony part, alone in a soundproofed room with a view of the conductor but no ability to hear what anyone else is playing. Not many are conductors. How can there be in an economy dominated by few than a thousand companies, not all of which engage in major financial transactions in any given year?

This suggests that the notion that financial companies are simply following the incentives created by the system itself, and that the system is telling them to decapitalize the real economy, is quite plausible.

Birther Suit Lawyer Self-Destructs

A recent episode of this season's Heroes program on NBC featured an office worker at Hiro's company who was fire for photocopying his butt at the Christmas party and was on the verge of committing suicide when he called Hiro's dial-a-hero service, not to save himself, but to secure a witness for who suicide. Hiro goes back in time, repeatedly, trying to saving him, only to discover the employee doing one thing after another to torpedo himself. Ultimately, Hiro sits the employee down and explains that if you really, really hate your job, it is better to find a new line of work than to intentionally screw up, get fired and kill yourself over it.

Orly Taitz is acting like Hiro's employee.

Orly Taitz is a California attorney. . . . Taitz, who likes to refer to herself as “Dr. Orly Taitz Esquire,” has a law degree from distance learning school Taft and a dental degree from Hebrew University.


She is a key figure in the "birther movement" and created a related non-profit.

Earlier this year, Taitz went to federal court (M.D. Ga.) to request a restraining order on behalf of Army doctor Connie Rhodes preventing Rhodes’s deployment to Iraq. Taitz claimed that the deployment order was illegal because President Obama is not legally president, and attached among her evidence the obviously-faked Kenyan birth certificate for Obama that has circulated on the Internetz.

Federal judge Clay Land aborted that birther suit and reprimanded Taitz for filing a frivolous lawsuit. . . .

Yet Taitz is still laboring over this suit and filed an order challenging Land’s dismissal of the case. He responded by giving her a two-week deadline to explain why he shouldn’t sanction her and fine her $10,000. On the deadline, she filed a motion to recuse Land from the case. . . . Judge Land decided to double the amount of the fine. Now, Taitz has 30 days to pay $20,000.


Her client informed that court that Taitz had been taking action not as her lawyer, but as her ex-lawyer. Taitz's client plans on grieving her.

Judge Land's order says:

The absolute absence of any legitimate legal argument, combined with the political diatribe in her motions, demonstrates that Ms. Taitz’ purpose is to advance a political agenda and not to pursue a legitimate legal cause of action. Rather than citing to binding legal precedent, she calls the president names, accuses (Land) of treason and gratuitously slanders the president’s father. [Taitz’s arguments are] shockingly devoid of reality. . . . [Her allegations of judicial bias is] breathtaking in its arrogance and borders on delusional. She expresses no contrition or regret regarding her misconduct.


When asked by a blogosphere reporter whether she would pay the $20,000 fine, she said: "Are you kidding? Of course not. This is a form of intimidation.”

The judge is sending a copy of the Order to the California State Bar.

It is fair to guess that Orly Taitz won't be a lawyer much longer. A willful decision to bring frivilous litigation often receives a modest and intermediate sanction. But, bringing a lawsuit in the name of someone who isn't really your client anymore is a direct route to disbarment.

13 October 2009

Denver's Baseball Season Over

A loss to the Phillies on Monday at Coor's Field ended the Rockies playoff bid. The Denver Broncos (who are 5-0 for the season) and Colorado Avalanche, however, offer exceptionally promising football and hockey seasons this year.

Aurora Libraries Face Life or Death Vote This Month

Denver's library system is facing cuts of about 10% this year, including one branch library in its extensive system, and all Sunday hours. Aurora, Colorado's municipal library system is in a more dire situation, as part of $14 million of cuts in the City's budget for 2010, bringing it the general fund budget to $231 million.

A decrease in sales-tax revenue and money from construction and building fees are the biggest reasons for the cutbacks.

The City Council agreed to cut about 135 positions for 2010, with about 50 of those positions now filled. The rest were already vacant.

About 40 people who work at libraries will be cut and three of the seven libraries could be shuttered unless voters approve a property-tax hike next month to stave off the closures. . . .

Twenty-two positions will be cut from Parks, Recreation and Open Space.

Also, three swimming pools will no longer be open; two of them had already been shut down this summer. The pool at the former Fitzsimons Army base will remain closed as planned for the new Veterans Affairs Hospital. The Village Green and Pheasant Run pools will not be back next year, either.


Local governments has highly cyclic finances because so many are highly reliant of sales taxes, one of the most cyclic forms of tax revenue. Property tax revenues are far more stable, and income tax revenues are usually somewhere in between.

Aurora is a first ring suburb of Denver with a population of 319,057 in 2008, making it the state's third largest municipality after Denver (#1) and Colorado Springs (#2). While it is home to the historic (and economically troubled) Old Town Aurora neighborhood, for the most part the city consists of stereotypical suburban tract housing, large apartment complexes, strip malls and conventional malls. The rapid residential development that fueled the city from the 1940s onward started to cool in the 1990s, and the housing bust of the financial crisis hasn't helped it usually vigorous new home construction market.

The city's crowned jewel is the Fitzsimons medical center to which several regional hospitals and medical facilities (e.g., the Children's Hospital and University of Colorado Hospital) were relocated from Denver. A new Veteran's Administration Hospital is also planned for the complex.

Goyangi Passes

The family cat died yesterday (he was fourteen and a half years old). His body and his unopened supplies went to the Denver Municipal Animal Shelter on Jason Street which handles disposition of deceased pets for free, on a walk-in basis during business hours, for Denver residents.

Inheriting Asperger Syndrome

Q: What are the chances of Asperger syndrome being inherited?

A: . . . [T]here seems to be a strong genetic component associated with this disorder. . . .

Asperger syndrome is a developmental disorder that affects a child's ability to socialize and communicate effectively with others. Children with Asperger syndrome typically exhibit social awkwardness and an all-absorbing interest in specific topics.

Signs and symptoms of Asperger syndrome often include engaging in one-sided, long-winded conversations; displaying unusual nonverbal communication, such as lack of eye contact, few facial expressions, or awkward body postures and gestures; showing an intense obsession with one or two specific, narrow subjects; appearing not to understand, empathize with or be sensitive to others' feelings; and having a hard time reading other people or understanding humor.

Doctors group Asperger syndrome with other conditions that are called autism spectrum disorders or pervasive developmental disorders. . . . Asperger syndrome is generally thought to be at the milder end of this spectrum. . . .

[A] child born to parents who already have one child with an autism spectrum disorder has approximately a 4 to 10 percent chance of also developing one of these disorders, including Asperger syndrome. In families without a history of autism spectrum disorders, the chance of having a child with one of these disorders is approximately 0.7 percent.


There is no genetic or biological test for Asperger's snydrome. It is diagnosed by observing behavior. Some studies put the heritability of austism spectrum disorders considerably higher.

12 October 2009

Penry v. Penry

Before you condemn your opponent for something, make sure that you didn't vote for it.

[N]o GOP criticism has hit him harder than the contention that Ritter has hired 4,000 employees since taking office. . . . it has become a key talking point for Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry, R-Grand Junction, as he runs for governor. . . .

The budget lawmakers approved for the current 2009-10 fiscal year shows a total of 52,429 full-time state employees, an increase of 4,446 employees from fiscal year 2006-07, which ended in June 2007, six months into Ritter's term.

But of the 4,446 employees Republicans point to as having been added under Ritter, 46.6 percent of those, or 2,071, were higher-education employees, whose hirings are not directly controlled by the governor or the legislature. . . . higher-ed spending was on the rise early in Ritter's term in no small part to Referendum C, the measure voters approved in 2005 that gave the state a five-year timeout from constitutionally imposed revenue limits. The measure said that one-third of the money collected as a result of Ref C had to go to higher education, and for the first two years of Ritter's term, higher-education spending increased. . . .

The increase in judges and other court employees statewide accounted for 13.6 percent of the 4,446 employees added during the four budget years.

And of the 603 employees added to the judicial branch during the four fiscal years — workers who include judges, probation officers, public defenders, and court employees — 307 positions came through increased funding from just one bill in 2007.

Penry was a co-sponsor of that bill. . . .

The third-largest category of employees added over the four-year period were corrections workers, who accounted for 539, or 12.1 percent, of the 4,446. Much of the increase in corrections workers was due to the additional prison staff needed after the state started double-bunking inmates in some facilities as a result of a rising prison population.

Penry and other Republicans have also blasted Ritter for more than doubling the number of employees in his office from 121 to 376 since being elected.

But of those additional 255 employees, 212 — or 83 percent of those added — were existing information technology workers moved from other areas of state government and consolidated into the governor's office in an efficiency move.

Penry also co-sponsored the 2008 bill that made that happen.


You know you are in bizzaro world when the Republican candidate is attacking the Democratic former DA for increasing spending on the criminal justice system and prisons, and for not vetoing his own bills.

At any rate, now is not the time to be arguing that having created too many jobs was a bad thing. Support for the limits imposed on the state budget by TABOR has never been weaker. People favor repealing TABOR even in Republican strongholds like Colorado Springs.

This said, a look the poll numbers suggests that Penry's talking point hasn't made a difference. Penry's strategy is to preach to the already converted at a time when Republicans make up a record low percentage of voters in the state. Admittedly, Ritter isn't winning over Republicans. But, Democratic incumbents don't normally expect to win over Republicans.

Ritter's poll numbers are so remarkably low for an incumbent because Democrats aren't lining up in his column. Most successful politicians at the state level have done so by winning over almost all members of their own party, and a disproportionate share of independents.

Ritter has lost his base. His base may return by election day. He doesn't have a serious primary challenger. And, when push comes to shove, not many Democrats will pull the lever for a "starve the beast" Republican. Bill Ritter's poor poll numbers (hovering in the low 40s for an incumbent) reflect a vote of no confidence from unions supporters and Democrats, not bloated state payrolls.

Descriptive Economists Rock Nobel Prize

This year's Nobel Prize winners for Economics made their mark describing how institutions and their governance work in the real world.

Elinor Ostrom of Indiana University showed that management of collective natural resources often works better than conventional economic theory would expect. A recent book she served as editor for discussed the need to rethink the fundamental premises of intellectual property law with a focus on concepts like the open source movement.

Oliver Williamson of Berkeley is known for his contract oriented research on how transaction costs, agency problems, imperfect information and similar frictions and drive strategies of corporate governance. One recent paper by Williamson finds common cause with Joseph Schumpeter in attaching economic importance to the way that firms are organized and governed, and complaints that strategic issues in the private contractual ordering of firms "had been ignored by neoclassical economists from 1870 to 1970."

The awards are made in a climate of massive backlash against the disciplinary program of academic macroeconomics and modern finance theory, which failed to understand the financial crisis because their models were too disconnected from the realities that drive the collapse of economic bubbles. In particular, critics argue that corporate governance created the wrong incentives for managers in big business and the investment banking world.

As Krugman explains the old status quo:

There was an old tradition of economics that focused on the origins and nature of economic institutions. This tradition was very influential before World War II.

But it proved not at all helpful during the Great Depression. My caricature version is that when the Depression hit, institutional economics, asked for advice about what to do, replied that well, it’s all very complicated, and has deep historical roots, and … Meanwhile, Keynesian economists, using very simple mathematical models, basically said “Push this button — we need more G”.

And this had a somewhat perverse effect. The rise of Keynesian economics also meant the rise of the equations guys (Samuelson in particular), and in the end the equations crowded out institutional economics even as Keynes fell into disfavor.


In the current cycle the time for the "More G" Keynesian's is passing and the time to improve our institutions so that this doesn't happen again for a long time has come. Fortunately, Nobel Peace Prize winner President Obama's own economic leanings are willing to deal with the "it's all very complicated" work that it takes to rebuild our economy on a better foundation.

11 October 2009

Denver's Emergency Room Scene

George in Denver offers his detailed impressions of a recent emergency room visits to Lutheran and St. Joseph's hospitals, that says as much about our health care system as it does about his own moment of personal distress.

I come away with the same conclusion that I had after my dad's experience at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, and a lot of studies I've read about health care quality. Health care quality and efficiency have as much to do with the quality of the administrative side of the operation and a lack of good systems as it does with technology or the skills of particular practitioners. The quality of the administration of our hospitals and doctor's offices is often mediocre. And, the way health insurance companies are run is an important contribution to this mediocrity.

09 October 2009

Who Can Save Sunday Library Hours?

The City and County of Denver has to make budget cuts in the face of declining sales tax revenues, just like almost every other state and local government in the United States during the current financial crisis.

One of the cuts that Mayor Hickenlooper has proposed is to close all of the city's libraries on Sunday. The cuts to the Central Branch library Sunday hours are anticipated to save the City $269,100 per year, a little more than $10,000 per week. The City has sought private assistance in keeping four recreation centers that are scheduled to close open, however, and this little piece of the budget would be another natural place to seek partial private help.

Currently, the central branch of the Denver Public Library is open for a half a day on Sunday afternoon for a few hours, while all other branches are closed. On Sunday, the Central Branch is Denver's Public Library. I currently make heavy use of those hours, just as I make heavy use of Colorado's new Sunday hours for liquor stores (a change sponsored by my own State Senator Jennifer Veiga). It isn't always easy to get home, grab the kids and make it to a branch which closes at 6 p.m. or 8 p.m. on weekdays. Many banks are only open on Saturday mornings and that is also a common time for kids athletic events. Many branches are open from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. on Saturdays, but sometimes for a variety of reasons, Saturday afternoons get booked too.

The Sunday hours of the library, together with the seven day a week schedules of the Denver Zoo and Denver Museum of Nature and Science and the Denver Art Museum Sunday hours in synch with the Denver Public Library Central branch's Sunday hours (DAM closes on Mondays) are symbolic of the fact that we are a tolerant place that isn't a "hick town" despite our darker past (embodied in the likes of the KKK backed former Mayor Stapleton after whom the Northeast Denver neighborhood built on the site of the former Stapleton airport is named). (One wonders if the hours at this branch would have been cut if the Mayor still lived in Lodo instead of Park Hill, where he now resides).

Sunday hours for the library add to the vibrancy of the City and County of Denver, which is one of the reason that a majority of the metro areas building permits came from Denver during the area's real estate downturn, even though Denver proper is almost landlocked and makes up only about a quarter of the metro area population.

Who could step in? I haven't talked to anyone soliciting help, but some ideas come to mind for a short list.

One possibility would be an interfaith coalition of groups representing those for whom Sunday is not a key day of religious observance.

The Jewish community (perhaps through the Jewish Community Center), the Seventh Day Adventist Community (which has a regional headquarters near Harvard Gulch park), the secular community (perhaps through the Freedom from Religion Foundation which last year spent money on billboards a few blocks from the central branch library), and the Muslim community (perhaps through the Colorado Muslim Society) could each chip in a little.

The Central branch's Sunday hours are a little league version to all of these communities of what Chinese restaurants are to Jews on Christmas.

The Roman Catholic Church doesn't strictly fit this definition, but thirty-two of the parish churches in the Archdiocese of Denver which are located in Denver proper offer a Saturday anticipated Mass, and for those attendees, a Sunday opening time for the Central Branch would be useful. For those who attend services at the Cathedral of the Archdiocese (on Pennsylvania and East Colfax), the Mother of God parish church (at Grant and Speer), the Holy Ghost parish (downtown), and the St. Elizabeth of Hungary parish (on the Auraria campus), the Central Branch of Denver Public Library is closer than any other branch of the Denver Public Library.

Perhaps the Denver Lodge #5 chapter of the Free Masons, whose lodge is just a few blocks away at 16th and Welton would look forward to an opportunity to further the values of interfaith cooperation and the pursuit of estoric knowledge, that the current organization touts. Denver's Scottish Rite Masons, who have a most excellent Masonic Center building just two blocks from the Central Branch library, might join in the effort, in a spirit of friendly competition with the peers at Denver Lodge #5. The First Unitarian Society of Denver for similar reasons, in addition to its advocacy for Denver's homeless (for whom a day without a public bathroom near Civic Center would be a hardship) might also help.

Capital Hill United Neighborhoods, Lower Downtown Neighborhood Association and the Golden Triangle Association, all of which are local neighborhood associations (basically organized city lobbying and zoning consultation groups), might help because this is their local library that serves their community. Perhaps Governor Bill Ritter, Jr., whose neighborhood library at the Governor's Mansion is the Central Branch, would symbolically pitch in a little as well.

The Denver Public Schools (which is facing less deep cuts than the City because it has a more stable tax base and state constitutional funding protections), whose procastinating students all put off their research projects until Sunday afternoon when the only library in town is the Central Branch, might also chip in on behalf of their students who get so much value from the Sunday service. Notably, the Aurora Public Library, which is currently in even more dire fiscal straights, has a branch open on Sunday afternoons during the school year for this very purpose.

Westword whose headquarters in also in the neighborhood, might help because I'm sure that some of their staff make professional use of the Central Library on Sundays and this free weekly has always shown intense editorial interest in the fate of the Civic Center Park area, of which the Denver Public Library Central branch is a part.

Can all cuts be avoided? No. I know that money is tight. I know that it is too late to put a TABOR waiver to raise new tax revenues on the ballot for this fiscal year, even if it was politically feasible to do so. The total library system is cutting about $3.2 million this year and I know that stopping all of that, including the closure of a branch library, may be impossible. But, preserving four symbolically and practically important hours of library service at a single branch library in the entire city, with at least partial private help from organizations like the ones that I have identified, seems within the realm of the possible. It also doesn't hurt to recall that those cuts are mostly coming out of the personal budgets of a lot of librarians.

When Does Limited Liability Work?

Big companies are much less vulnerable to "piercing the corporate veil" than small ones according to a review of six years of litigation in the federal courts. Undercapitalization, which rarely prevails in Colorado appellate litigation of the issue, in contrast, is strongly associated with veil piercing success in federal trial court litigation. The study also finds, surprisingly, that liberal judges are less likely to pierce the corporate veil.

Flu Attacks

Both my kids have had the flu and they are now almost recovered. One of my colleagues and one of her daughters also have the flu. This is notable this year because flu fear is high since H1N1 (aka swine flu), which first surfaced last year, has killed the kind of people for whom flu is normally just an inconvenience. For example, a healthy 25 year old who died from flu in Colorado this month. Absences are high at the local elementary school, and the recreation center's cross country team has had notable numbers of participants out every week due to flu.

I've had a season flu shot, but not an H1N1 shot, and I'm crossing my fingers. I suspect that I will soon learn if I'm feeling less than wonderful due to flu, or just from lost sleep from everyone else being sick and waking up in the middle of the night.

It isn't terribly reassuring that I also learned from an article in virology yesterday evening that one of the main ecological purposes of viruses is to kill things so that they biomass can re-enter the food chain. Viruses kill 20% of the plankton in the ocean every single day (which, fortunately, grow right back). The white cliffs of Dover? A grave yard of diatoms killed by viruses.

Of course, that isn't their only purpose. Viruses are also "gene brokers." They are probably responsible for the fact that there is a slug which can perform photosynthesis with the cooperation of algae organelle that it harvests by eating them. Indeed, most plants and animals have DNA that can probably be traced to viruses.

Viral Genetic Change

The power of viruses in action in their gene broker role is humbling. For example, scientists gave male monkeys in a species where male monkeys are always red-green color blind a virus that carried a gene for red-green color sight. Suddenly, and for the rest of their lives, they could see red and green. In the middle of their lives, a virus permanently changed their genes. You usually think of as one of the quintessential and immutable parts of the definitions of "you." But, this isn't always the case. Humans genes are sometimes changed by viruses as well. At least one such virus has been documented in modern Latin America.

How Far Should Gene Therapy Go?

So far, gene therapy via intentional infections with custom designed viruses is still in the experimental stage. Fewer than a couple dozen people, all in the 21st century, have been treated using it. But, the principle has been established. Sooner or later, it will become one more prevention and treatment modality along with medical treatments like antibiotics, vaccination, surgery, physical therapy, vitamins, radiation treatments, anti-viral drugs, and chemotherapy.

Author Kate Elliott's Jaran series took this theory to a logical extreme where the entire civilized human race intentionally altered its genome with gene therapy to give itself incredible longevity, fixing a host of disease causing genetic flaws.

Are we smart enough to decide what to change? It is hard to fault science for dramatically reducing (and in some cases virtually eliminating) small pox, polio, diphtheria, measles, mumps, rubella, and more by engineering our immune systems.

Would it be so bad to make available genes closely associated with longevity found in the existing population? Haemophilia (a blood clotting disorder) is the first well understood genetic disorder; it is genetically simple and well understood. Would a gene therapy to treat haemophilia be a bad thing? More frivolously, what would be so bad about giving healthy people, who wanted it and gave their informed consent, a gene that allowed them to see ultra-violet colors (a trait found in butterflies, most birds, some fish and possibly even very rare human beings)?

I think it is fair to say that our society no longer sees modifications designed to improve physical health as a sacred frontier that should not be crossed. There are utilitarian concerns about unintended consequence and side effects, similar to those involved in prescription drugs, but not deep moral concerns.

Mental health is another issue. Lots of mental health conditions have a strong genetic component.

Some of these appear to be far too complex to treat with gene therapy, because they seem to involve the cumulative effect of many small genetic issues, rather than a small number of particular genes (bipolar disorder and schizophrenia are examples). But, surely, other genetic mental health conditions are far more straight forward.

Some anxiety conditions are symptomatic almost from birth, and fairly simple genetic models may explain many anxiety disorders. Blood testing for panic disorders may be around the corner. The U.S. Army has been doing blood testing on new recruits for vulnerability to stress related disorders for about three years now. About 40% of people with agoraphobia (often crudely described as a fear of crowd), for example, have a relative with agoraphobia, which has been linked to a chromosome 3 trait. Many panic disorders and obsessive-compulsive disorder may likewise have relatively straight forward genetic origins. If a safe, effective gene therapy for agoraphobia were developed, how many agoraphobics would happily allow the gene that causes this condition to be altered in a way that would permanently end this condition?

Under what conditions is it worth tinkering with our genomes to mitigate these traits, which may have historically had adaptive value but may be maladaptive now? Anxiety disorders are currently one of the most common mental health issues. Would it matter if some subset of the population chose to forgo gene therapy for anxiety disorders with simple genetic models, keeping those traits in the gene pool, but at lower frequency rates? At what point does anxiety become a personality trait rather than a disorder? And, it is right to use gene therapy to change one's personality as opposed to curing a disorder?

Are we brave (or foolish, as the case may be) enough to address these traits permanently through gene therapy, much as we do temporarily through drug therapy? Are the risks of declining neurodiversity too hard to evaluate relative to the risk of declining physical diversity associated with genes that have less of a mental health impact?

Are there mental traits, IQ perhaps, that are simply better in almost all cases? Who decides? Is a brain-body distinction even something that makes sense?

There is already a history, which is decidedly mixed, of people intentionally altering gender and hormonal identity through castration and more recently chemical castration. This has been done to preserve male soprano voices, to create trustworthy eunuch servants, to tame violent sexual predators, and the purify holy men. What if this was done with gene therapy instead?

Suppose that a ten year old clearly had a transgender identity? Would it be inappropriate to use gene therapy to change that child's genetic gender before puberty through gene therapy to match that child's self-identity?

These decisions are no longer in the distant science fiction future. If my generation does not face them, my children's generations probably will.

08 October 2009

Military Related News Briefs

* The British Navy is basing some Apache AH-64 attack helicopters on its small aircraft carriers (21,000 ton v. 100,000 ton for a U.S. carrier). It is a concept that I've previously suggested for the U.S. Navy in connection with the Littoral Combat Ship for missions like anti-piracy, shipping control, and support of ground troops. Most naval helicopters are lightly armed and designed primary for carrying cargo and passengers. None are gunships to the same extent as the Apache.

While helicopters are slower than most fixed wing military aircraft, they are faster than any ground based vehicle, and an order of magnitude faster than tracked tanks, ships and boats.

* Israel is now using armed, unmanned boats (USVs) for coastal patrol duties. The U.S. model discussed before was first used in the real world in 2003 in the Persian Gulf to patrol shipping, and the Israeli model used by Singapore and in the Persian Gulf has been used at least since 2004.

The Protector USV is basically a four ton, 30 foot long (9 meter) speedboat (up to 72 kilometers an hour) equipped with radar, GPS and vidcams, and armed with a remote control 12.7mm machine-gun (using night vision and a laser rangefinder). There is also a public address system, to give orders to boats that should not be there. . . . Protector can be controlled from an operator ashore, or in a nearby ship, usually out to the horizon or at least 10-20 kilometers distant. Protector can stay out eight hours at a time. The one big shortcoming is that Protector is built for speed, not rough seas. . . .

The U.S. Navy had earlier developed the lighter Spartan Scout USV. The Spartan Scout is a two ton, 22 foot long, radio controlled boat. It is armed with a .50 caliber machine-gun and a number of sensors (mainly day and night vidcams.) Spartan Scout is more suitable for patrolling port areas and inland waterways.

Both USVs can operate without an operator (by using GPS to move between specified locations.) Spartan Scout can stay out for up to 48 hours, depending on how much high speed (it can hit up to 80 kilometers an hour) running is done. It also has a loudspeaker and microphones, so that the operator, who is usually so far away that he can't see the USV) can converse with crewmen on small ships. . . . While Spartan Scout was developed primarily to work with the new LCS (Littoral Combat Ship), every ship now wants one or more of them, just for port security.

Spartan Scout is also designed to use different sets of equipment for different missions (detecting mines, Intelligence-Surveillance-Reconnaissance, Anti-Terrorism/Force Protection, destroying threats with the machine-gun, and Antisubmarine Warfare.)

Seeing the need for a larger USV, the U.S. Navy has developed a new USV (unmanned surface vessel) to be used by its LCS (Littoral Combat Ships) for anti-submarine warfare. Officially called the 11-meter Fleet class Anti-Submarine Warfare Unmanned Surface Vehicle (ASWUSV), the 39 foot long boats weigh 8.5 tons and can carry 2.5 tons of sensors and other equipment. The USV can move up to 63 kilometers an hour and stay at sea for up to 24 hours. Most of the time it would be moving slowly, using its sonar to search for subs. The ASWUSV is equipped with GPS and a computerized navigation system that allows it to automatically run search patterns. Thus the sailors controlling the boat remotely, can move it to an area that helicopter or aircraft dropped sonobuoys have picked up a contact, and pursue it more intensively with the more powerful sensors it has on board. . . . While two of these ASWUSVs can be carried by LCS ships, the boats can also be used from shore stations. Apparently the first ones to see service will be sent to the Persian Gulf in the next three years, to help keep the Straits of Hormuz free of Iranian submarines. The ASWUSV also carries vidcams and radar, to assist in avoiding collisions with other ships, and to keep Iranian gunboats from capturing or damaging one. The ASWUSV was developed based on experience with the Spartan Scout.


While unmanned land vehicles, planes, boats and submarines are new, this is a technology that is ready for prime time and will have a sweeping impact on the future of warfare. Almost all are primarily remote controlled, with truly automated operations that aren't much more sophisticated than a cruise control on automobile or an autopilot on a commercial airplane.

The big benefits are an ability to stay on station for long periods of time, small size relative to capabilities made possible by not having to have accommodations for crew, and the ability to attack while the operators are out of range of those being attacked.

* The U.S. Army is converting two heavy brigades (units with about 3,900 soldiers) into medium weight Stryker brigades (with a similar number of soldiers), one will transition in 2011, the other in 2012.

Each Heavy Brigade (HBCT for Heavy Brigade Combat Team) contains:

[T]wo battalions of 28 M1 Abrams tanks each (14 per company) along with two infantry companies of 14 Bradley’s each. There is also an armed reconnaissance squadron of 30 [M2] Bradley’s. An artillery battalion has 16 M-109 155mm self-propelled howitzers along with a support battalion and brigade special troops battalion consisting of headquarters, signal, intelligence, security and engineer companies round.


Both the Abrams tank and the Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicle (which is half-missile tank and half-armored personnel carrier) are too heavy to carry on the Air Force's most common short range cargo plane, the C-130, or on any helicopter. A C-17 transport plane can carry one M1 Abrams tank (about 70 tons) or two M2 Bradley infrantry fighting vehicles (about 35 tons each). Thus, it takes 57 C-17 trips to tkae the heavy Abrams tanks and Bradleys in a HBCT, and more trips to take the rest of the unit's gear and personnel, which is difficult, because C-17s are a scarce resource as the only largest long range transport in U.S. service that doesn't require a commercial grade airport. (The C-5 is a larger long range transport but requires a commercial grade airport.)

In practice, heavy units usually have their gear delivered by a combination of train, sea lift and ground convoy, which can take weeks, and their vehicles can destroy local roads and bridges not designed to carry shut heavy loads. Even in Europe, many road and rail bridges would collapse under the weight of an M1 tank.

Each Stryker Brigade (SBCT for Stryker Brigade Combat Team) contains:

3 Stryker infantry battalions, each having 36 Stryker vehicles distributed among 3 companies (12 each). Nine Stryker Mobile Gun vehicles, mounting 105 mm guns are there for anti-tank and infantry support roles. Nine Strykers, equipped with guided anti-tank missiles, form an anti-tank company. There’s also an artillery battalion with 18 towed 155mm Howitzers, a support units (usually company size) for Medical, Maintenance and Distribution, Headquarters, Signal, and Engineers. There is a Reconnaissance squadron comprised of 42 vehicles.


Everything in a Stryker brigade should be capable of being delivered by a C-130 transport plane. These can land on short field airstrips and are much more numerous than larger C-5 and C-17 long range transports. These medium weight units aren't as well defended against heavy weapons used by enemy forces as the heavy units. But, the vehicles do have sufficient armor to protect the occupants from typical infantry small arms, and have the ability to take on small numbers of more potent opponents. Thus, these units have far more capabilities than paratroopers do, and can be deployed anywhere that an small field airstrip can be prepared.

This is a move in the right direction. The Reagan defense buildup during the Cold War built a force that was overweighted towards heavy, anti-Soviet tank oriented units, and there were almost no medium weight forces in the Army. This change leaves the U.S. military with more of a mix of light, medium weight and heavy forces.

* China is dramatically reducing the size of its military and moving away from a heavily conscription oriented model. It plans to reduce its active duty force by 700,000 soldiers over three years to a total size of 1.6 million troops, which is similar to that of the United States (with 1.4 million), reduce conscription (which it could do almost entirely with that large a reduction), and devote more military resources to procurement of ships and planes. It is also planning to reduce the number of officers in its force, while developing more career non-commissioned officers.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome Akin To HIV

A new study has found that a retrovirus that originated in mice and attacks the human immune system is found in 68% of people diagnosed with chronic fatigue syndrome, but only 4% of healthy control subjects. This implies that there are something like 12 million asymptomatic or undiagnosed XMRV carriers out there, in addition to two-thirds of the 1-4 million people who have chronic fatigue syndrome. This suggests that millions of people have XMRV for years that only produces chronic fatigue syndrome after stress, a weakened immune system or something else allows the XMRV to take hold.

Only six kinds of human retrovirus had previously been discovered. Two types of HIV (HIV-1 and HIV-2 discovered in 1983 and 1986 respectively) which cause AIDS, and four kinds of HTLP which causes a rare, highly lethal form of leukemia that impacts T-cells (one in 1977, one in the 1980s, and two in 2005). Both retroviruses have long periods of dormancy. Untreated HIV typically doesn't cause death for a decade. About 4-5% of people with HTLP will eventually develop the associated form of leukemia; about 1 in 1500 carriers develop the associated form of leukemia each year. There are about 75,000 HTLP carriers in the United States right now. Both HIV and HTLP are far more common among IV drug users and among African-Americans than in the general population in the United States.

XMRV is in the same genus of retroviruses as the feline leukemia virus, which is well known because house cats are routinely immunized against it. Indeed, the existence of a feline leukemia virus vaccine offers hope that an XMRV vaccine may someday be developed. Vaccination may be a more attractive option for XMRV than for HTLP which is quite rare, or HIV, for which it has been notoriously difficult to create an effective vaccine. The first successful HIV vaccine test conducted in Thailand was announced this year, but it worked only about a third of the time.

Chronic fatigue syndrome has historically been a diagnosis obtained only by ruling out all other possibilities. Now, a blood test will be able to quickly identify people who are XMRV positive, leading to quick diagnosis and more focused treatment for two-thirds of sufferers, who have historically faced great skepticism from the medical establishment and seen treatment delayed to their detriment during prolonged periods of diagnosis. Some members of the medical establishment have seen chronic fatigue syndrome as a form of hypochondria or mass hysteria, and in the case of XMRV positive patients, that attitude will evaporate. The discovery will also suggest many strategies used to deal with HIV like control of viral transmission via blood or sexual transmission, and blood supply screening. XMRV carriers may also be prime candidates for efforts to boost their immune systems and limit stress in order to prevent the XMRV infection from giving rise to full blown chronic fatigue syndrome. But, a positive XMRV test could cause chronic fatigue syndrome to be viewed by a health insurance company as a pre-existing condition that will not be covered when, and if, it emerges.

The situation could also increase skepticism from the medical establishment for XMRV negative patients.

Denver Zoning Reform Timeline

Per the Denver Post, Your Hub section today, the timeline for Denver's overhaul is as follows, pursuant to a schedule adopted 11-0 by the City Council:

* Late October - Publication of Semi-Final Draft
* By Third Week In November - At least two listening sessions and/or prehearings for public comment held jointly by City Council and Planning Board.
* December 22, 2009 - Department of Community Planning and Zoning shall submit to Blueprint Denver Committee of City Council the final draft of the new zoning code and map.
* By December 22, 2009 - Publication of final draft at www.newcodedenver.org
* A single bill for the an ordinance adopting the new zoning code and map in one legislative enactment will be filed by the Department of Community Planning and Development.
* January 6, 2010 - Planning Committee public hearing.
* January 13, 2010 - Blueprint Denver Committee will consider final draft of zoning code and map.
* January 21, 2010 -- Ordinance introduced by Department of Community Planning.
* January 25, 2010 -- First Reading of Ordinance by City Council.
* February 22, 2010 -- Final vote on Ordinance after formal public hearing.

In other words, the basic outlines of Denver's zoning code proposal are a done deal. A last round of meaningful modifications within the basic outline of the proposal will be considered for good cause between late October when a semi-final draft is proposed and Thanksgiving.

The final two months of the process will give Denver a chance to know what is about to hit them and to propose trivial modifications through January 25, 2009. The Ordinance will be adopted with only slight modification on February 22, 2010 unless a tidal wave of opposition has surfaced to the proposal.

UNRELATED NOTE: In a few days, ballots for the November 2009 election are going out. It will contain school board contests (one at large and district seats in about half of the districts. It will also contain one ballot initiative, Issue 300.

Issue 300 is an anti-immigrant, anti-civil liberties, anti-police proposal to require mandatory car impoundment of certain people. The last one was found to be unconstitutional in some respects. The one is opposed by the City Council and just about everyone else. It is a bad proposal. Vote No On Issue 300.

07 October 2009

Health Care Reform Comes Together

The details of health care reforms being considered by Congress are coming together. The Senate Finance Committee will vote as early as Friday on a health care reform bill where approval is expected. A House bill and another Senate bill from the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee are also being considered. The House bill has a public option, the Senate bills do not. A floor vote in the House and Senate is planned within the next few weeks.

Health care legislation drafted by a key Senate committee would expand coverage to 94 percent of all eligible Americans at a 10-year cost of $829 billion . . . the legislation would reduce federal deficits by $81 billion over a decade and probably lead to "continued reductions in federal" red ink in the years beyond. . . .

The Finance Committee bill does not require businesses to offer coverage to their workers . . . although large firms that do not would be required to offset the cost of any government subsidies going to those employees. . . . the estimate does not include the costs of proposed payment increases for doctors serving Medicare patients, roughly $200 billion through 2019. Additionally, a so-called fail-safe mechanism to hold spending in line could result in cuts as large as 15 percent in federal subsidies designed to help the poor afford insurance . . .

Beginning in 2013, the measure would require that millions of Americans purchase private insurance for the first time, and would set up a new marketplace where policies would be available. Failure to obey the requirement would result in penalties of up to $750 per family.

Federal subsidies would be available to millions of lower-income individuals and families to help defray the cost of coverage that would otherwise be out of their reach. . . .

The legislation also would ban current insurance industry practices that deny coverage on the basis of pre-existing medical conditions, and restrict companies' ability to charge vastly higher premiums on the basis of age, gender or other factors.

The measure would be paid for through a variety of tax increases and spending cuts, including savings of hundreds of billions of dollars from Medicare, the federal health care program for seniors. . . .

It said that by 2019, "the number of nonelderly people who are uninsured would be reduced by about 29 million," either through private insurance or by enrolling in federal programs. That would leave an additional 25 million uninsured, about one-third of them illegal immigrants who are not eligible for coverage under the bill.

"Under the proposal, the share of legal nonelderly residents with insurance coverage would rise from about 83 percent currently to about 94 percent," Elmendorf said. Elderly Americans are eligible for coverage under the federal Medicare program.

The report was released as House Democrats met privately to consider ways to hold the cost of their version of the legislation to the $900 billion 10-year limit that Obama has set.

Officials said one of the options under review would add as many as 7 million lower-income individuals to Medicaid, the federal-state health care program for the poor. It would be cheaper for the government to cover costs under that program than to pay subsidies designed to make private insurance affordable for the same group. Aides put the savings at about $25 billion over 10 years.


As Drudge likes to say, the story is "developing."