26 October 2025

The Shutdown Continues

The federal government shutdown is on day 26, the second longest of all time, and the record holder for person-days of federal employee furloughs. Trump has accounted for a majority of all days that the government has been shut down for all time.

Trump has literally demolished the East Wing of the White House to put up a ballroom (all contrary to federal law regarding how that is done).

SNAP, a.k.a. food stamps, will be shut off on November 1, 2025, out of Trump's spite because there are contingency funds in place to keep it going longer.

Trump continues to deny everyone federal disaster aid.

Trump continues to illegally murder people in boats in the Caribbean, ostensibly because they are dealing drugs, but that isn't grounds for summary execution, the basis for doing so hasn't been substantiated, and Congress hasn't authorized it.

ICE is ignoring the law and court orders in Chicago. On the bright side, someone stole two National Guard tanks in Memphis.

The No Kings Protest on October 18, 2025 extended to large attendances even in deeply red places. About 8.1 million people nationwide participated.

In a political stunt to celebrate the Marine Corps. birthday, they fired artillery rounds over Interstate Highway I-5, where some rounds exploded prematurely over the highway.

Charlie Kirk's wife appears to be deeply connected to kidnappings of Romanian children for adoptions when she was 17 years old in an activity that Trump apparently played a part in funding.

The National Young Republicans Group's racist, pro-Nazi, pro-rape group chat was exposed. The group also stiffed venues where it held events of tens of thousands of dollars more than once.

More than a third of ICE applicants can't pass basic physical fitness tests. About half of them can't pass a basic, open book test, on the part of immigration law that they need to know and the 4th Amendment.

The Toronto Blue Jays are in the World Series.

Trump increased tariffs on Canadian imports by 10% because he didn't like a truthful TV ad playing recordings of Ronald Reagan explaining how bad tariffs are.

Trump is ramping up dubious criminal prosecutions of his political opponents using illegally appointed attorneys in the Justice Department's U.S. attorneys' office.

Trump appears to have received more than a billion dollars of illegal personal gain from his office already since January 20 when he was sworn in.

Trump illegally tried to conduct layoffs during the government shutdown, which a judge halted.

Republicans are refusing to swear in a newly elected Democrat to the house from Arizona because they don't want to release the Epstein files and don't care about the continuing government shutdown.

All of this just scratches the surface of the horrible news that rains down every day.

16 October 2025

Extinction Burst!

A video at this link explains the concept of an "Extinction Burst". People go into a rage when something that they used to be rewarded for isn't working any more, until they give up.

This is the most hopeful thing that I've seen for ages.

Could The Military Remove Trump In A Coup?

The number one trigger for military coups is the military not getting paid, which the U.S. is doing right now. And, when Trump has called up the national guard, he has done so for time periods one day short of what is necessary for them to receive full compensation for being called up. VA spending has also been slashed.

Corruption and incompetence are also major factors. But you have to go back to Andrew Jackson to find a President who rivals Trump 2.0 in those dimensions. It doesn't inspire confidence to talk about conflicts between Albania and Azerbaijan, or a European country and Cambodia. His dementia is apparent and was on full display at his unprecedented speech to all generals and admirals.

Humiliation and disrespect for the military can be factors, and Trump has shown both towards soldiers, and in particular, POWs and military casualties. The meeting of all generals and admirals where Trump, a repeat draft dodger, and a Fox News commentator, calling them out for being fat and woke, didn't help.

The meeting, met by stony eyed silence from the assembled military brass to the last man, also potentially broke down the single biggest barrier to a military coup in the U.S., which is the collective action problem of figuring out which officers are on your side. This is why numerically smaller militaries are much more likely to carry out coups. But by showing unanimity of distaste for Trump, he may have inadvertently overcome some of that barrier.

There are other signs that the military has distaste for Trump. For his birthday Army parade in D.C., he wanted a communist style show of force and got a boring historical display. Morale was brought very low when the National Guard gardened and cleared trash when occupying D.C. The National Guard has not been effective in L.A. or Chicago or Portland or Memphis at reducing crime and multiple judges have held that Trump is illegally deploying the military. But when rule of law is the only thing keeping the military subordinate to the civilian government of the U.S., Trump's flouting of the rule of law undermines that singular force. The military didn't get involved in January 6 and like most law enforcement is probably dismayed by the January 6 pardons. Trump's rogue attacks on "drug dealing" boats in international waters in the Caribbean without legal authority is another example.

The military has spent a lifetime opposing enemies like Russia, and supporting traditional allies, but Trump has turned that on his head, making war with NATO, coddling Russia, envying North Korea, threatening Greenland, Canada, and Panama.

The idea that an armed public discourages tyranny behind the Second Amendment is empirically not true historically, and obviously not true now. Gun owners in the U.S. today, not only aren't resisting tyranny, they're the ones welcoming it.

Is a coup likely? Probably not. But it is more likely now than at any other point in U.S. history.

15 October 2025

14 October 2025

Catholic Opposition To Trump 2.0

 


In and of itself, this is a relatively minor incident in the overall sweep of Trump 2.0 politics. But Catholics are the largest voting block in the U.S. and if the Catholic church is seen as in opposition to the Trump administration, the electoral impact could be great.

The Shutdown


We are at 14 days of the shutdown (the third time that the government has shut down while Trump was President, including the longest shutdown ever). On Friday, it will surpass the 2013 shutdown during the Obama administration. A week from tomorrow, it will surpass the 1995 shutdown from the Clinton Administration. And, there is no end in sight.

The Democrats are holding out of restoring Medicaid cuts and Affordable Care Act tax subsidy cuts (not healthcare for illegal immigrants or rampant trans surgery as false GOP talking points suggest), which were including the the Trump budget to pay for tax cuts for the rich.

The fact that the Republicans haven't gone nuclear to end the shutdown shows that GOP support for those cuts in the Senate is tepid.

The foreseeable Affordable Care Act tax subsidy cuts were an important reason that I decided that I needed to seek employment with an employer who provided a group healthcare plan, rather than continuing to be self-employed.

Frogs For The Win

 


09 October 2025

Mourning Lost Blogs

The demise of the TypePad blog hosting site has obliterated many of the blogs in my sidebar.

05 October 2025

An Alternative History Story Idea

 This could have been pretty cool.

Around the turn of the 20th century, inexpensive meat, a product of American prosperity that had long been available to even the poorest immigrants, was suddenly in short supply. Louisiana Representative Robert F. Broussard thought he had a solution: embrace hippopotamus ranching. He even outlined the details in his “American Hippo Bill.” 
What did his plan have to do with the water hyacinth and what became of the proposed solution?

Full story at the Smithsonian Magazine.

03 October 2025

The Tide Is Turning In Ukraine's Favor

The Ukraine War seems to have reached a turning point. Ukrainian attacks on the Russian oil and gas infrastructure, and on coal and natural gas fired electrical power plants, often deep inside Russia, are having an impact that ordinary Russian citizens can no longer ignore. And, when Russia can not longer supply oil and gas to Western Europe, European resolve to take a firm stand against Russia strengthens.

In a few cases, strikes deep in Russia have been carried out by Ukrainian special forces acting in concert with domestic minority nationalist groups, raising the specter of a Russian civil war, or at least a renewed insurgency at a time when it's military is stretched thin to beyond a breaking point.

Russia is almost completely out of heavy armored vehicles and has dramatically reduced artillery resources. Russia is still suffering about 30,000 casualties a month, a rate at which it can just barely replace the soldiers it's losing with green conscripts.

Russia's provocation of NATO countries from Poland to Hungary to Denmark is driving these countries in Europe to vigorously prepare for war and take more aggressive measures against it.

Russia is deploying huge numbers of drones, missiles, and glide bombs to Ukraine at unsustainable levels, but many of these are intercepted before they can do harm, and those that done usually result in modest Ukrainian civilian casualties that incited outrage, but have little military effect and have not broken Ukraine's spirit. And, those attacks are unsustainable because Russia's capacity to procure new drones and missiles, and the replace its military equipment losses is far lower than that of Ukraine and its Western allies.

And, while Trump's America has been a feckless ally to Ukraine, it also hasn't turned out to be the solid supporter of Russia that Putin had hoped to receive.

It isn't over, but the tide has turned definitively in favor of Ukraine.

Not All Hope Is Lost (Yet)!

Keep fighting!

Every week (there are rare days of respite) there is news so bad that I vacillate between outrage and despair over the future of our country.

On the other hand, while we have plummeted into a less free semi-democracy, and plenty of irrevocable damage has been done, we aren't yet beyond a point of no return.

The government shutdown demonstrates that Congress can do something. And, with the "nuclear option" well-established in the U.S. Senate now, the fact that the filibuster hasn't be abrogated to end the shutdown means that there is at least some tacit dissatisfaction with the administration among some Republicans in Congress, even if they are too cowardly to translate that into a roll call vote against the President.

While SCOTUS has frequently shut down lower court checks on Trump's assault on the rule of law, the lower federal courts and litigation of blue states has slowed the process down and put serious friction in the way of his bid to become a dictator.

Attempted military occupations of L.A., D.C., Chicago, and Portland (OR), have had far less shock and awe that Trump hoped. His birthday parade flopped and his rally of generals and admirals likewise demonstrated that while the military may reluctantly obey their commander in chief, that he does not have firm control of, or the loyal and enthusiastic support of, the military.

Trump's aggressive secret police style ICE tactics have undermined public backing for his immigration policies, which were a key factor in getting him and the Republicans in Congress who only have a razor thin majority as it is in the House and in the Senate, elected.

Now that the rich have gotten their tax breaks, they don't need him nearly so badly any more, and are shifting to worrying about whether his bad economic policies will deny them any profits to evade taxes on at all.

We are thirteen months away from the midterm elections, at a time when Trump's popularity has plummeted to record lows and where Democrats are vastly over performing in special vacancy elections. GOP gerrymanders are getting a response from Blue state counter-gerrymanders. And, the cost the GOP risks when it grasps for more Republican districts is that those districts may become less safe and flip as public opinion turns against Trump (primarily among disappointed Republicans and independents who voted for Trump).

It is dim, but there is still some light at the end of the tunnel.

02 October 2025

A Fire ICE Act

ICE is rotten to the core. Basically everyone who works for it is a corrupt, racist, bad cop, with no regard for the rule of law who lacks moral character.

Democrats in Congress should sponsor the Fire ICE Act. This would:

1. Immediately terminate the employment of every single employee and contractor working for ICE.

2. Permanently bar every former ICE employee from working for any federal government agency or any federal government contractor in any capacity, even as an unpaid volunteer or as prison labor.

3. Permanently bar every former ICE employee from receiving security clearances.

4. Permanently bar every former ICE employee from receiving federal financial aid for higher education.

5. Permanently bar every former ICE employee from eligibility for SBA loans.

6. Permanently bar every former ICE employee from serving as a sponsor for any immigrant.

7. Retroactively downgrade every former ICE employee who is a military veteran to dishonorably discharged status.

8. Permanently bar every former ICE employee from receiving federal farm aid.

9. Permanently bar every former ICE employee from receiving federal housing or disaster assistance, including FHA and VA loans.

10. Revoke all non-vested employee benefits of the ICE employee from any federal government employment.

11. Extend the statute of limitations for civil liability and criminal liability committed in connection with service as an ICE agent to 50 years.

12. Create a private cause of action, including minimum statutory damages of $50,000 and attorneys' fees, for any violation of federal law committed by an ICE agent while employed by ICE or a contractor for ICE. This would include any wrongful deportation and any detention made without probable cause. And, allow any vested retirement funds or homestead property to be used to satisfy any such judgment even if it would otherwise have been exempt from creditors. Make any such debts non-dischargeable in bankruptcy.

13. Bar all companies that provided deportation transportation services to ICE from all future government  contracts.

14. Make all former ICE employees ineligible to serve on the board of any 501(c)(3) organization, or as an officer or paid employee of any such organization.

15. Revoke the visas of any ICE employee who is not a U.S. citizen.

16. Prohibit former ICE agents from owning or possessing firearms.

17. Bar former ICE officers from making new applications for federal disability benefits.

18. Prohibit federal civilian employees and federal government contractors hired in any law enforcement role from wearing masks, or enforcing the law in unmarked cars, subject to very narrow exceptions that are heavily reported upon, required all sorts of red tape, and are limited to circumstances that never include immigration enforcement.

19. Create a list of places like hospitals, court houses, churches, and immigration offices, where immigration enforcement is not allowed.

20. Allow any state or city to prohibit federal immigration enforcement from taking place in their jurisdiction, subject to very narrow exceptions for people convicted of serious felonies within the last five years.

21. End all grounds for denaturalization and punish people who secured U.S. citizenship by fraud with criminal penalties that do not revoke their U.S. citizenship.

22. Place former ICE agents at the bottom of the priority list to receive organ transplants, at at the end of the line for any Medicaid, Medicare, or VA medical benefit for which there is a waiting list.

23. Prohibit former ICE agents from receiving any honor or recognition from the federal government and revoke any honor or recognition that the former ICE agent was previously awarded by any federal government entity, military or civilian.

24. Deny former ICE agents any benefit of U.S. international child custody treaties.

25. Prohibit former ICE agents from notarizing any document used in the federal courts or submitted to a federal government agency.

26. Make former ICE agents ineligible for all federal licenses, including but not limited to, patent examiners, SEC licenses, BLM grazing permits, FCC licenses, interpreter qualifications, pilot's licenses, federal firearms dealer's licenses, and federal fishing or hunting licenses.

27. Prohibit former ICE agents from being buried in military cemeteries.

28. Prohibit former ICE agents from being granted patent or trademark applications.

29. Prohibit former ICE agents from serving as officers of any federally recognized employee unions.

30. Prohibit former ICE agents from attending any federal educational institutions.

31. Prohibit former ICE agents from making mining claims.

32. Impose a 50% excise tax on any vested, deferred compensation payable to former ICE agents on top of any other applicable taxes.

33. Enact a rebuttable presumption in any federal discrimination case that a former ICE agent intended to engage in illegal discrimination.

34. Prohibit former ICE agents from serving a registered lobbyists.

35. Require former ICE agents to disclose their employment with ICE to all future employers, in any commercial contract, in any campaign for public office, and prior to being issued a marriage license.

36. Make status as a former ICE agent an aggravating factor under the federal sentencing guidelines.

37. Prohibit former ICE agents from entering federal parks and federal landmarks.

38. Prohibit former ICE agents from serving as officers or directors of any publicly held company.

39. Prohibit former ICE agents from purchasing cyptocurrencies or selling crypocurrencies that were not owned prior to the enactment of the law.

40. Prohibit former ICE agents from obtaining any federal loan or bailout of any kind.

41. Disclose all internal ICE records and a list of all former ICE agents to the public on a publicly available database that disclosed all internal affairs information, all service information, and all contract information of former agents.

42. Immediately release everyone in ICE detention who isn't an undocumented immigrant convicted of a crime within the last five years that is a felony or worse. Transfer the rest to the federal Department of Corrections.

43. Ban all future private prison contracts of any kind.

44. Deny all de minimis tariff exemptions for former ICE agents.

45. Formally authorize private sector employers and state and local government employers to discriminate against former ICE agents.

46. Give cases in which former ICE agents are plaintiffs, the lowest scheduling priority in federal court.

47. Require disclosure of former ICE agent status in every lawsuit filed by a former ICE agent, and as part of the witness testimony of every former ICE agent in any federal court or federal administrative agency proceeding.

48. Prohibit former ICE agents from participating in clinical trials for new drugs and medical devices.

49. Prohibit former ICE agents from receiving any new federal tax credits.

50. Prohibit former ICE agents from serving as employees or unpaid volunteers in federal funded schools at any level.

If this bill is introduced as a bill in Congress, and secured enough co-sponsors in the House and Senate to have some credible chance of being seriously considered, it doesn't even matter if it passes. 

It will still powerfully discourage people considering employment with ICE from doing so. Every if some provisions are subsequently invalidated by the courts and are severed from the larger bill, the uncertainty would seriously chill anyway from applying to work for it.

30 September 2025

Autism May Be Related To Human Level Intelligence

Autism may be related to the human specific evolution of higher intelligence: 

Researchers discovered that autism’s prevalence may be linked to human brain evolution. Specific neurons in the outer brain evolved rapidly, and autism-linked genes changed under natural selection. These shifts may have slowed brain development in children while boosting language and cognition. The findings suggest autism is part of the trade-off that made humans so cognitively advanced.

26 September 2025

Why Is MAGA Against The American Way?

A post at Quora has a thoughtful take on why the MAGA movement is opposed to so many fundamental American ideals.

Tomaž Vargazon ·
Practicing atheist 
Sep 10 [2025]

Why are MAGA so opposed to the very principles on which the United States are based -- liberty and freedom? Why does MAGA want to surrender their freedom to an authoritarian loser like Donald Trump, who only wants to use and destroy them?

My personal opinion, after spending an unhealthy amount of time looking at various extremists over the past 20+ years, is a significant minority of people who are simply not capable of modern human civilization. 

ISIS

Take the Islamic world for example. Various studies have been made as to how many Muslims support the crazies and it’s usually in the 10–20% range, depending on the country, region and time in history. They are a minority, but a very sizeable and vocal minority that has the ability to control the narrative, due to their vicious nature.

But this is not limited to Islam at all. In Europe we have various kooky-looney parties that look different, behave differently, but share the same core disdain for modern human civilization. In Germany they’re the ones who support AfD, across Europe they’re the main provider of various neo-Nazi gangs and so forth.

These same people, born in a Muslim family, would become the radical crazies of ISIS. In Europe they fawn over Michaelle Le Pen. In Britain they bend over for Nigel Farage. Born in an America, they become MAGA. It’s the same kind of mindset, right from the stone age: my way or the highway, my leader is perfect, your side has no redeeming qualities, anyone who opposes us is evil or crazy, we will solve everything and nothing you do is worth talking about.

The reason why I think this is intrinsic to humanity is because whereever you look, the numbers are always hover at approximately 20% of the population. Sometimes it’s a bit more due to temporary surges when people don’t really know what they’re voting for (Hitler in 1933 had about 33% support), sometimes it’s a bit less because there are several competing groups for the stone age vote and they steal the stone age vote. Sometimes the excesses of one such groups also drop their support, because they get percieved as bad - this certainly happened to ISIS.

But in the long run the crazies, once they’re known to everyone, end up with ~20% support. It’s not that odd if you think about it, approximately 99% of our history we’ve spent in tribal groups and endemic warfare in prehistory. It was your way or the club or spear of the other tribe. Of the recorded history we’ve spent a clear majority, certainly over 5500 of the past 6000 years and likely more, in one dictatorship or another. Keeping your mouth shut and head down in front of the powerful leader was the way you kept it on your shoulders, questioning authority being something positive is a new development.

In light of this the fact 1 person in 5 is not okay with the modern state of affairs and wants to have a strong ruler that will tell them when to shit, when to eat, when to clap and when to kill, should not be surprising. They don’t function well when disconnected from the hive and feel lost. Making choices and taking responsibility is hard and tiring, just following orders unquestioningly is easy. No, the most surprising fact should be is 4 out of 5 people do want modern society, with all that entails.

Unfortunately that means we have to contend with 20% support for crazies, like MAGA or what have you. What Trump did in other words was not to convince anyone of anything. He just rallied the deplorable vote under one banner and make them vote consistently for the return of the stone age.

15 September 2025

The HR Zeitgeist

So, today was my first day at a new job as a senior assistant city attorney with the City and County of Denver.

As usual, as a lawyer, I can't talk about the substance of what I actually do at work, due to attorney-client privilege and confidentiality rules and so on. 

But, as in any big organization (the City and County of Denver has at least 11,000 employees), day one at a new job is not mostly about the substance of the work that day. I probably only did about two hours of actual legal work on my first day. 

Day one at a new job in a big organization is about getting your employee ID, completing employment related paperwork, getting accounts with various workplace software systems set up, learning where the bathrooms and break rooms are located, figuring out the layout of your part of the building so you don't get lost, introducing yourself to your co-workers while trying to match their names to faces in your memory, watching orientation videos, and reading orientation materials.

This wasn't my first rodeo. I'm a middle aged man and I've been through this drill before in my life. But I haven't done it recently, since I've been self-employed and worked in small offices for a couple of decades. 

A couple of things struck me as very different from my prior experiences.

Preparing For Mass Shootings

The last time I went through the "onboarding" drill, in 2004, was five years after Columbine, and three years after 9-11. At the time, we were more concerned about international terrorism in high profile locations, than we were about the era with a never ending wave of school and workplace shootings, even though, in hindsight, that era really began with the Columbine High School shootings in 1991.

On the day of the Columbine shooting, in 1999, I had just recently moved to Denver and lived close to downtown before moving to the Washington Park neighborhood after which this blog is named the next year. I saw the Denver bomb squad's truck rush right by me, sirens blaring. I recall thinking at the time that something really bad must be going down, although I hadn't listened to the news yet that day and didn't know what was going down at the time. The Denver bomb squad truck was headed for Columbine High School. Not much later that day, the news confirmed my suspicions. It was a massacre. Thirteen students and one teacher were killed before the two shooters committed suicide (one died a quarter century later from these injuries, while the others died almost immediately); twenty-three more people were injured (twenty by gunfire) in a spree that lasted 49 minutes, even though a police office had responded within five minutes.

But back in 2004, during my last onboarding to a larger employer, five years after Columbine, our society's response to "active shooter situations" still hadn't really jelled yet.

Before Columbine, police and institutional administrators had doctrines about responding to armed threats that favored the cautious approach appropriate for situations where an armed person had taken multiple people hostage, but wasn't actively shooting anybody. 

After the fact recognition that the institutional and law enforcement response to Columbine had been inadequate, crystalized the recognition that a different response was appropriate in an "active shooter" situation. In an "active shooter" situation, the right approach is to minimize harm by denying the shooter targets, and by boldly doing everything possible to neutralize the threat as quickly as possible. But it took years for a consensus to emerge around the best law enforcement and institutional response to an active shooter situation.

"Lockdown" and "active shooter" drills only started when my children were in early elementary school, in the late aughts. None of my onboarding experiences in 2004 or earlier had imagined the possibility. 

The mostly small law firms that I worked at over the years devised skeletal security plans on an ad hoc basis when there were specific security threats (usually from a client's ex-spouse, or soon to be ex-spouse), like keeping shades drawn to deny someone with a rifle a target in our office, or thinking about escape routes out back doors and how to stall threatening people while everyone was trying to flee.

Fast forward to 2025. Onboarding and HR materials still have the old mainstays. A brief history of the institution you're beginning to work for. A review of various nuts and bolts considerations related to sick days, employee benefits, and other employee policies and procedures. Strong cautioning against sexual harassment.

What is new to me is the new, major focus on how to head off violence in the workplace, and how to react in the event of an active shooter, even though it has been a part of my children's lives for as long as they can remember. There was even once a shootout unrelated to their school, that took place just outside their high school, during which their high school was locked down. 

For me, this hit hard. Unlike my children, this was not something that I had ever been systemically prepared for before. Even in years in the Boy Scouts, with its "be prepared" motto, all of the way to becoming an Eagle Scout, we'd never considered these scenarios. But, this issue was raised in two or three different sessions in my orientation activities today, consuming almost an hour on my first day of work.

This isn't by any means a criticism, even though it was unsettling. This instruction is necessary in our day and age when these kinds of shootings are weekly, if not daily occurrences. There were two school shootings on the same day on September 10, 2025 last week.  And, the instruction works.

At the Evergreen High School shooting in Colorado last week, which involved an active shooter who emptied and reloaded his revolver many times, all over the school, firing dozens if not hundreds of times, and trying to attack students in many different classrooms, only two victims other than the shooter were shot.

One victim was in the school at the time. This victim was a casualty of one of the first shots fired, and was probably one of the intended primary targets of the shooter. He was shot with little or no warning, and until then, no one at the school knew that the shooter had a gun with him that day.

No amount of training about what to do when an active shooting incident starts could have saved this first victim, although someone might have taken action to prevent it from happening in response to the shooter's disturbing social media activity (which his parents appear to have been aware of, at least to some extent, but didn't act upon). The FBI had started investigating the shooter's social media postings in July, but wasn't able to identify who was making them prior to the September 10 shooting.

The other student was shot by the shooter while fleeing, outside the school. This student was probably a target of opportunity after the shooter was thwarted in his attempt to find his other intended targets in the school, and instead shot someone else at random out of frustration, not long before the shooter shot himself. The active shooting episode (as is often the case) was all over before law enforcement could confront the shooter. This second victim was, realistically, the only conceivably preventable casualty that all those drills were not enough to completely save. 

Both of the victims who were shot were initially in critical condition, but have survived for more than five days so far (as of early this evening one victim was in critical but stable condition, and the other victim was in serious, but not critical, condition), as a result of extremely rapid and decisive medical responses once the shooting stopped (or maybe even earlier, the details aren't perfectly clear). The two victims were brought to a specialized trauma center, while receiving emergency care en route, well within the "hour of power" when a serious trauma victim can often be saved. While this is speculation on my part, I suspect that the less seriously wounded victim was probably the second one who was shot while fleeing, and that the distance that this victim put between him or herself and the shooter was probably decisive in preventing that shot from killing this victim.

The only life that wasn't saved was the shooter, who died from his self-inflicted, point-blank, gunshot wound which he intended to be suicidal and which ultimately did cost him his life. But even he survived in critical condition for hours due to the rapid medical response, and the quality of care that a Level One trauma center can provide. 

There were eight hundred or more people in Evergreen High School school at the time the shooting started. But, the active shooter training and lock down drills paid off. The shooter would almost certainly have killed many more people, as the shooters at Columbine did in 1999 in another affluent part of the same suburban Colorado county, if everyone in the school hadn't done what they had learned in their annual drills. 

Evergreen High School's students, teachers, and administrators, almost instantly after the first shots were fired, turned the school into a fortress of locked or barricaded doors. The shooter repeatedly tried to break into classrooms to kill more people, some of whom were probably his intended targets, but he failed. People who couldn't lock themselves into a safe place hid out of sight if they couldn't flee and weren't shot. The rest of the students, including those in a cafeteria near where the shooting started, and some hallways full of high school students, successfully fled to safety purposefully and without hesitation, mostly getting out within a minute or two after the shooting started. They ran far away, beyond the range of the shooter, to safety. 

Everyone who wasn't shot was promptly accounted for, to make sure that there were no victims who were shot, but not found, who needed medical attention.

The world has changed. Twenty-five years ago, an active school or workplace shooting of multiple people was shocking and almost unthinkable. Now, while it is still much less common than other kinds of murders and attempted murders, school and workplace shootings are a routine fact of life that we have accepted as a society (even though many of us urgently want policy reforms to address them), and we prepare for them in much the same way that we prepared for tornados when I was a kid in school, and in much the same way as we prepare for plane crashes in advance of every commercial airline takeoff.

Preparing For High Rise Fires

Another change today was more thorough and vivid instruction from HR on what to do if there is a fire in a high rise building than at any place I've worked before now. 

This is a direct offshoot of the 9-11 attacks in 2001, as well as the fact that I'm working on the 11th floor of a downtown office building.

I don't recall ever even thinking about fire safety when I worked near the top of a high rise office building in Glendale, Colorado from 1999 until the summer of 2001, a few months before 9-11. No one ever even mentioned the possibility.

My office at the time of 9-11 was a single story steel framed building with a brick facade, multiple exits, and a window that could be opened and escaped from in every room, so escaping a fire wasn't a concern there either. And, nobody was worried that our tiny suburban office building, which was also home to a miniature golf course and a drive though coffee kiosk, was a terrorist target. 

This threat wasn't a big deal at the workplace I joined in 2004, the last time I had a thorough onboarding at a new job in a large organization, since our offices were on the second floor of a modern, up to code, sprinkler equipped, three story concrete, steel and glass building in a suburban office park. It also wasn't much of a concern in 2005 when I worked on the first floor of a two story converted Victorian era mansion with a fire escape from the second floor, and many windows in every room from which people inside could safely escape if need be.

I did get a little fire emergency training from 2010 until 2019, when I worked on the 20th floor of a high rise office building in downtown Denver (on the same block as downtown Denver's signature "cash register building"). Within a year of starting to work there, I was appointed to the unpaid position of fire marshal for our little office suite with a peak occupancy of about six people that took up about half a floor of the building. We went through annual drills where we walked down twenty flights of stairs and assembled at our office's appointed regrouping site in front of the Warwick hotel a couple of blocks away. But my duties were communicated to me in a low key manner, face to face, from our previous office fire marshal to me. I served in this role until the office suite's lease ended, and so I never had to pass that hat to anyone else. My subsequent offices were also small and low rise.

But, now I work on the 11th floor of a downtown office building for a large, bureaucratic organization that employs everyone in the building. And, the horrors of people trying to escape the World Trade Center still seem almost as fresh as they did twenty-four years ago, even though the threat of foreign terrorism has slipped to the back of our consciousness. So, this was, rightfully, a significant focus in our orientation, even though it was also unsettling.

14 September 2025

Retiring The A-10 And The Marine Corps Force Redesign

The case for a next generation A-10.

One recent article tries to justify the retirement of the A-10 Warthog attack aircraft. Retiring the fifty year old aircraft is understandable. But the Air Force has for decades scandalously ignored its obligation to support ground troops and continues to do so. Some of the recent article's reasons are more sound than others:

The F-35 Can Do Its Job

One of the reasons for decommissioning the Warthog is redundancy. While the A-10 is great at its job, which consists of ground strike and close air support, these missions can be carried out by the F-35. Since the Air Force, Marine Corps, and Navy all fly F-35s, each service can call in Lightning IIs for danger-close missions. The F-35 does not have the Warthog’s GAU-8/A Avenger 30-mm rotary cannon, but it can drop numerous munitions when it is equipped in beast mode. F-35s can launch the StormBreaker smart weapon and the Paveway laser-guided bomb. The F-35 can also share targeting data in real time with other airplanes.

The argument that the F-35 is a suitable A-10 replacement doesn't hold water. The A-10 is more robust, is better suited to the slow and low flights needed for close air support, and has better protection for pilots against small arms fire than the F-35, the AH-64 Apache attack helicopter, or the AC-130 adapted C-130 transport plane which only flies missions at night because of its vulnerability. The A-10 (when new) needs less maintenance per flight hour as well. The A-10 is better for most close air support missions than the AH-64 Apache, the AH-1Z Viper of the Marine Corps, the MV-22, or the AC-130, and rivals drones in situations where there aren't sophisticated anti-air defenses but there are anti-drone defenses like electronic jamming or directed energy weapons.

The A-10 Would Not Survive In Modern War

Another reason to retire the Warthog is its low survivability. Air defenses are constantly improving, with better radar and surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems such as the Russian S-400 and S-500 that are layered in depth.

The A-10 would have little protection from being detected, tracked, and destroyed by newer SAMs. The A-10 is not known for speed and maneuverability, although its performance in air shows has left me impressed. A-10s are also not stealthy like the F-35, and they are much slower and less maneuverable.

The basic problem with this point is that it is all or nothing thinking. Against an opponent with strong, modern air defenses, the A-10 (and close air support in general) doesn't make sense. But, in many conflicts, such as President Trump's contemplated involvement in wars with the armed militias of Latin American drug cartels, or in the global war on terrorism, or against pirates, the adversaries don't have modern air defenses and close air support is desirable. As a country with the largest air force in the world, not every fighter aircraft needs to be a generalist suited for every conflict.

Even in the same conflict, there may be an initial stage, when the goal is to destroy enemy air defenses when air superiority has not been secured, when an expensive stealth fighter may be the right tool, and a later stage of the same conflict, when enemy air defenses have been secured and air superiority is substantially achieved, when an attack aircraft may make more sense. 

A manned close air support aircraft may be desirable when the opponent has advanced anti-drone or electronic warfare resources (that can also thwart guided missiles and smart bombs) but not sophisticated air defense resources that are still functioning. And, a modern version of the A-10 would have more active air defenses.

The A-10 Is Costly to Keep in the Air

Further, the A-10 is an older airframe. It was introduced in the 1970s and requires significant maintenance. The airplane’s need for spare parts and tender loving care makes it expensive to keep in the air.

The money saved by no longer maintaining Warthogs can be spent on other airplanes, such as the new F-15EX, as well as the F-35. The cost per flight hour of the Warthog ranges between $19,000 and $22,000. This adds up quickly, and in a future war, the costs would multiply. The Air Force has requested $57 million to retire all A-10s.

This is a legitimate concern. Airplanes are machines that don't last forever and even training missions put a lot of wear and tear on them. But, it is a straw man argument. 

The real debate is not over keeping the original airframes from the 1970s, but over whether the niche of a simple, robust, fixed wing close air support aircraft should continue to exist. The Army designed helicopter gunships and an armed version of the MV-22 Osprey because it didn't trust the Air Force to be committed to providing closely coordinated close air support for it, and the Army wasn't wrong. But a helicopter gunship or MV-22 Osprey is slower and more fragile than an A-10. The real question is whether a successor to the A-10 that is designed in a similar way with a similar mission should be built. If it was, its hourly maintenance costs (and per unit production costs) would be much lower than a supersonic stealth aircraft, or an aircraft like the F-15EX optimized for air to air combat.

Supersonic speeds, advanced air to air combat capabilities, and stealth make an aircraft much more expensive.

Also, an A-10 successor would be better suited to intercepting drones than a more expensive, supersonic, high altitude F-35 or F-15EX. The A-10 or a successor in the same niche, would be better suited to engaging adversaries in the typical drone airspace.

Would It Even Have Any Tanks to Destroy?

Finally, warfare is changing. Combat in Ukraine has focused on first-person view drones that loiter and drop down to eliminate tanks and people. The A-10 is not the best tool to take out small drones.

Plus, the tank, which has historically been the main target of A-10s, is becoming an obsolete platform. The A-10 could still offer close air support for soldiers and Marines in tight spots on the ground, but there may not be as many tanks and armored personnel carriers on the battlefield compared to the days when the United States first fought in Iraq.

Tanks probably will play a smaller role in future conflicts. But, the same folks who are pressing for the retirement of the A-10 also think we still need tracked manned tanks with a 105mm to 125mm main gun whose primary purpose is to destroy other tanks. But even without tanks, close air support is needed, and there are artillery batteries, trenches, fortified positions, and other armored vehicles to strike. Drones can take over many of these roles. But, a manned A-10 isn't vulnerable to electronic jammers, doesn't require fiber optic control wires, can evaluate the situation with richer visual and electronic input than a small laptop computer screen displaying digital camera images can (which is critical when friendly and hostile forces are close to each other), is much faster than any ground vehicle (and especially faster than a tracked vehicle), and can ignore obstacles on the ground like rivers, trees, mountains, and barricades.

In general, fixed wing aircraft are faster, have longer range, can carry heavier payloads, are more fuel efficient, are more survivable when hit with enemy fire, and are easier to maintain from austere forward operating bases. And, unlike transport aircraft, their ability to land and takeoff vertically (as opposed to from short field airstrips) isn't as important (unless they are non-aircraft carrier ship based).

Not Needed for Combat Search and Rescue

The A-10 had a secondary use for combat search and rescue, but the F-35 can carry out this mission as well. Special operations forces have personnel called “combat controllers” who act as air traffic controllers on the ground. Intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance data collected by the F-35 can be shared with the combat controller, who then relays the findings to other special operators and helicopters that can rescue downed pilots or stranded personnel.

A critical mission like combat search and rescue isn't necessary a task for a single aircraft. It is generally a team effort.

Neither an A-10 nor an F-35 is suit for a "rescue" mission. These are single plane fighters that can't pick someone up and evacuate them. They can play a role in a "search" mission, and a supersonic F-35 at 30,000 feet simply isn't as suited for this role as an A-10 at lower altitude with a much lower stall speed that can operate from more primitive air strips. 

Drones do provide an alternative, but a manned aircraft close to the ground provides richer visuals than a digital camera and is vulnerable to being jammed. The attack aircraft could control other drones with line of sight, hard to jam lasers or microwave beams, rather than general radio signals that are used by a more conventional drone.

Also, while a fighter aircraft may not be actually "rescuing" someone, it could be dropping supplies for the troops in need of rescue or could be serving as an armed escort for a helicopter or tilt-rotor aircraft that is actually doing the retrieval. Both rolls may be better suited to a low and slow aircraft.

The case for the Marine Corps force redesign.

Another article complains about the Marine Corps divesting itself of main battle tanks and much of its heavy artillery. The Marine Corps was right and the skeptics are wrong.

I've written repeatedly and at length about why main battle tanks are obsolete. They are highly vulnerable. They are very difficult and slow to deploy. They are very slow moving. They have long and highly vulnerable logistics trails. Their main guns are ill-suited for destroying tanks. 

I have also written somewhat less voluminously about the problems with traditional howitzers, which are vastly less accurate than missiles and drones (which both means multiple shells per target destroyed and undesirable collateral damage, which also undermines their cost advantage particularly with cheap drones that are often comparable to or lower in cost than a cheap suicide drone), often have more limited range, and are much heavier than missiles or drones per target hit.

As a rapid reaction, expeditionary force, these heavy, slow to deploy systems with long logistics trails are ill suited to the Marine Corps.

11 September 2025

Excessive Drinking By U.S. County

 


U.S. counties with the highest and lowest rates of excessive drinking.

Observations:

* There are legitimately low levels of drinking in the deep South, Appalachia, and Oklahoma. It could be that people there can't afford to buy alcohol. Religion could be another factor. The fact that people in these states behave so badly while being more sober than average isn't impressive.

* Low rates of drinking in Utah and parts of Idaho (which is heavily Mormon as well) are unsurprising.

* Low rates of drinking in almost all of New Mexico, the Indian Reservation area of Arizona are mildly surprising.

* Low rates of excessive drinking in Las Vegas are very surprising.

* Wisconsin is well known for its heavy drinking. Alaska and Montana are unsurprising on that score. North Dakota and Colorado are mildly more surprising.

Musings On September 11

 * I was supposed to be in a trial out of town today for one of my clients. She's been hospitalized since Sunday (it is not life threatening at this time, although it sucks to be in the hospital, of course). So, the trial had to be continued to a future date to be determined. As a result, I have some found time today.

* I was in court 24 years ago, on September 11, 2001, when the attacks on the World Trade Center, the Pentagon took place, and Flight 93 crashed after passengers rose up and disrupted the efforts of the men who hijacked the plane. 2,996 people were directly killed in the attacks including 19 terrorists were killed in the attacks, predominantly passengers on the four hijacked flights, people in the World Trade Center, and World Trade Center first responders. 

I still lived in the same house and was married to the same wife. Back then, I was a junior associate attorney with a two year old and an infant. Now, my children have finished college, have apartments of their own, have good jobs, and have significant others with good jobs. My daughter is engaged to be married in less than a year. I'm a few days away from starting a new job as a senior city attorney for the City and County of Denver, after almost twenty years of self-employment as an attorney in the interim.

* In the U.S., the 9-11 attacks, after briefly completely shutting down commercial air travel in the U.S., resulted in the formation of the Transportation Security Administration, the reorganization of the federal government bureaucracy to create a Department of Homeland Security, the establishment of much more strict security checks and protocols for commercial air travel, the creation of memorials and compensation schemes for the victims of the attacks (several thousand people were killed), the rebuilding of the Pentagon, and the erection of a new skyscraper where the World Trade Center once stood. Islamic terrorism in the U.S. after 9-11 proved to be extremely rare and small in scale. Some of the measures imposed in the wake of that attack, like a requirement to remove one's shoes in a security line that was triggered by a single failed shoe bombing attack on December 22, 2001, are finally being rolled back now. The 9-11 attacks also spurred the passage of the controversial PATRIOT Act which strengthened the authority of U.S. intelligence agencies, the substance of which largely remains on the books with several modifications adopted since then.

* A U.S. Supreme Court ruling in the case of Ashcroft v. Iqbal, dismissing a lawsuit alleging the arbitrary detention without probable cause and mistreatment of American Muslims in the wake of the 9-11 by the federal government adopted a new standard for bringing federal lawsuits, that replaced "notice pleading" that allowed lawsuits to be brought upon information and belief to be substantiated in the discovery process with "plausibility pleading" that requires allegations of facts that were actually known to state a plausible claim for relief to bring a federal lawsuit, and many but not all U.S. states subsequently also adopted this standard. The case was dismissed because the plaintiffs didn't have actual knowledge of the insider discussions of top U.S. officials in adopting the policy. The case and a related one called Twombly, which involved an anti-trust lawsuit in which the plaintiffs did not have the "smoking gun" of actual knowledge of the deal reached by allegedly conspiring insiders who had allegedly reached an anti-competitive agreement with each other, made it much harder to bring lawsuits that involve misconduct that only actual insiders have actual knowledge of without court ordered discovery.

* The 9-11 attack was planned and orchestrated by Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda organization operating in Afghanistan, an organization that the Taliban, which controlled almost all of Afghanistan at the time. al-Qaeda was backed financially and intellectually mostly by factions of the Saudi Arabian royal family and allied wealthy elites were were not part of the ruling faction. The terrorist was Saudi Arabian and Egyptian and Lebanese nationals.

In response to the attacks, Congress promptly and almost unanimously passed the Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) against this non-state actor. Starting on October 7, 2001, a small U.S. force using a combination of CIA operatives, U.S. Special Forces, and U.S. air power promptly crushed the Taliban (by December 7 of 2001), which had been on the verged of conquering the entire control over the opposition of a coalition of warlords, called the Northern Alliance, that was resisting them. 

A multinational coalition led by the U.S. then occupied Afghanistan in the resulting power vacuum, shepherded a constitutional assembly based upon local traditions which adopted a Western style government (but with Islamic law as the supreme law of the land) under which a democratically elected civilian government of Afghanistan was formed, with the multinational force supporting the newly formed Afghan government (whose take on Islamic law was far less extreme than that of the Taliban) in counterinsurgency actions against the Taliban. 

The Afghan government fell in 2021, just days after U.S. forces withdrew on August 30, 2021, under an executive agreement that previous U.S. President Trump had negotiated with the Taliban without Afghan government involvement. The Taliban government swiftly seized control of the entire country and has imposes a very strict Islamic law regime in the four years that have followed. 

The AUMF, however, continues to be in force to fight a larger "War on Terrorism" against Islamist terrorist groups and insurgencies related to al-Qaeda, especially the "Islamic State" group that briefly operated an ultra-extreme Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. U.S. military action under the AUMF, predominantly in the Middle East and Africa, has continued into 2025.

About 5.5 million members of the U.S. military served in the post-9-11 era and a large share of the soldiers in the Army and Marine Corps, as well as many members of the U.S. Air Force, and a modest number of U.S. Navy sailors, serve in Afghanistan and/or Iraq (where the Iraq War was conducted from March 10, 2003 to December 15, 2011 with some U.S. forces remaining on a residual basis afterwards). There was a steady, but small stream of casualties from that conflict: 2,420 U.S. soldiers were killed and 20,093 were wounded but not killed in the Afghan War over almost twenty years, usually from improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and ambushes from Taliban-linked insurgents. The peak strength of the multi-national force in Afghanistan, in October of 2019, was 17,178 soldiers (about two-thirds of whom were U.S. troops, with British and Canadian troops making up a little more than half of the rest), which was about 5% of the peak number of U.S. troops deployed in Iraq. The U.S. spent $2.3 trillion on the war in Afghanistan (about 90% for the conduct of the war and 10% for related care of Afghan war veterans). At least 243,000 people died as a direct result of this war (mostly Afghani civilians, contractors, and Afghan combatants on both sides). These figures do not include deaths caused by disease, loss of access to food, water, infrastructure, and/or other indirect consequences of the war. 

* Afghanistan has been immersed in civil wars and insurgencies, with only brief interruptions, since 1979 (just six years after the 18th century monarchy that unified the country was removed in a 1973 coup, with the Western style republic's government removed in a 1978 coup). As a result, on essentially ever element of human development is it the worse in the world outside Sub-Saharan Africa, with only Yemen and the Palestinian territories within Israel (especially post-October 7, 2023 Gaza) coming anywhere close.

09 September 2025

A Leading Blogging Platform Will Be Gone In Three Weeks


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05 September 2025

The Complicated Story Of MAGA Politics

The modern Democratic party operates to a great extent like politics is supposed to work in Civics 101, and follow on political theory says that it is supposed to. It has found policies, that its leaders believe are good ones for the nation, that can unite a diverse big tent coalition. Democrats believe that government can be a force for good and want to use it the implement policies that make the world a better place. They go to great lengths to demonstrate with evidence that their policies do indeed do so. They aren't saints, but they also view stupidity, bad character, and malice in their leaders negatively and are generally happy to cast out leaders who demonstrate those traits.

The Republican party, in living history, was a pretty similar organization and movement that assembled a different bundle of policies to unite a different, smaller tent coalition.

But, that Republican party is almost gone and rapidly dissolving, even though most of its top leaders got their political start in that party.

The MAGA Republican party and movement, in contrast, is something else entirely. It absolutely still has its roots in the pre-FDR solid south Democratic party, in the Dixiecrats, and in the post-Southern strategy anti-civil rights Republican party. But unlike the Republican party that preceded it, it doesn't fit the Civics 101 model.

MAGA Republicans don't accept a lot of the bipartisan consensus about many aspects of policy making and governing that preceded it. It is isolationist. It is anti-trade, anti-immigration, anti-NATO, and unconcerned about alliances with foreign dictators. It has no respect for expertise. It doesn't think that government does anything good (and is oblivious to the benefits that its members receive from government), so it isn't troubled by having the government run by incompetent fools. It has strong authoritarian leanings, no commitment to democratic ideals, and little concern for the rule of law. It sees power as a tool to utilize to fight culture wars and its political opponents, rather than as a means to advance the greater good

Republican political leaders know perfectly well that most of President Trump's executive branch appointees, like RFK, Jr., are incompetent idiots whose only redeeming quality is their momentary personal loyalty to Trump. Most of them are also well aware that many of the policies that Trump is pushing for are objectively bad ones.

Then why do these Republican leaders back Trump anyway?

They can read the room. They know that they face mafia style backlash from Trump if they cross him. They also know that their not terribly bright constituents in the MAGA base firmly support Trump (or at least have until very recently within Trump's second term when they've discovered personally, the hard way, how bad his policies really are) seeing any deviation from Trump's agenda as a betray of Trump's MAGA base including them. The MAGA base also sincerely believe in a lot of the misguided elements of Trump's agenda because unlike most Republican leaders, they don't know any better.

Billionaires and the political representatives of many big businesses also know personally well that Trump is a horrible person who supports mostly bad policies who is basically trying to destroy the federal government from the inside. But, for them, the immense tax cuts that Trump has delivered to them, and the dismantling of federal laws and regulations that cost them money have seemed worth it to them so far.

The conservative leaning members of the college educated upper middle class, who used to work in think tanks formulating conservative policies that they thought furthered the national interest on a basis similar to that of their liberal peers, who served as senior civil servants, and served as professionals in roles that either supported conservative economic and religious interests, or were at least apolitical, meanwhile, have abandoned the Grand Old Party in droves, some to be unaffiliated politically, some to be libertarians, and some to become "moderate" and "neo-liberal" Democrats. Fools loyal to MAGA and Trump's cult of personality, and powerful hypocrites, have rushed in to fill the vacuum that they upper middle class conservatives left behind.

The agenda of Trump and his MAGA cult of personality isn't sustainable. But it wasn't really meant to be. The objective of MAGA is to burn it all down, and to entrench far right cultural dominance and political power now, knowing that in the long run, the democratic process and respect for the rule of law and settled political norms, run fairly, will undermine those objectives.

Destruction can be accomplished more quickly than building something that works. So, it doesn't have to last long. And, if the MAGA base comes to realize that the face eating leopard they supported ate their faces once the damage done is irrevocable, that's their tough luck in the eyes of the billionaires and far-right cranks who actually benefit from its agenda. By then, if the MAGA agenda is successful, they will have dug the United States (and even the larger world) into a hole that will be very hard to get out of again.

The system struggles to stop them. Trump has installed enough people loyal to him that share his far from the mainstream agenda in key institutions like the U.S. Supreme Court, the military, and senior government offices that he wasn't supposed to be able to oust and oust, and key policies that he wasn't supposed to have the legal right to control, that the systems and people designed to stop him aren't doing their jobs. The system wasn't designed to to stop a President who had no respect for his oath of office, no commitment to the good of the nation, no respect for the rule of law, and immense political power arising from a base brainwashed by decades of lies from clergy, Republican political leaders, and cynically manipulative conservative mass media outlets that jettisoned their journalist ethics long ago.

Of course, the willingness of the MAGA base to be manipulated and accept these lies didn't come from nowhere. It isn't that information that reveals that these are lies isn't available. It isn't that members of the MAGA base unanimously agree that Trump has good character.

They are motivated to accept a false worldview because the last half century of American progress has left them behind and greatly diminished their socio-economic status in relative terms. They are willing to take the gamble of destroying the system because of they feel that it has done nothing for them, and that they have no prospects of improving their lot within it.

Most of them made a bad bet. Trump's agenda will leave them worse off and reveal to them that they actually did have something to lose in the system that they are trying to destroy. The policies that they thought were the problem aren't the source of their dismay. Their future prospects within the system that they support destroying were better than they believed them to be. But, now that they've made that bet, a psychological unwillingness to admit that they've been duped and made a mistake, and the fact that much of the damage to both the system and the political process has already been done, makes remedying their mistake difficult.

The situation could still be turned around: If enough of the MAGA base is disillusioned fast enough. If enough old guard Republicans and conservative judges who are hypocrites wake up to the fact that the end game isn't a good one before it is too late. If Trump dies or implodes (which is a bet the left is trying to make by pushing the Epstein files issue) and no successor to Trump as the leader of the MAGA movement arises. 

But if it is turned around, the most likely failure mode for MAGA will be a dramatic collapse of the entire political movement. It will look like an economic bubble popping. It will look like the sudden death of the Whig party in favor of the new Republican party shortly before the Civil War. It will look like the collapse of Naziism at the end of World War II, or the collapse of the Soviet Union. It will look like the post-Herbert Hoover Republican Party of the 1930s. It might even look like the French Revolution with guillotines and all.

There isn't much room for a middle ground business as usual alternation of power at the margins at this point.