The market at Tradesports only gives the GOP a 53% chance of retaining the US House. That is a dramatic change from the 72% probability they had in November.
Congressional Quarterly appears to concur with this trend, noting that of the nine races in which there is no clear favorite, that eight are currently seats held by Republicans.
The odds of the Democrats gaining control of the Senate, which has only a third of its seats up for election every two years, many of which are not competitive, is far smaller. Tradesports puts the chance of the GOP retaining control of the Senate at 79.7%.
The participants at Tradesports also give Democrats a 60% chance of prevailing in the closely watched 7th CD race, and give Bill Ritter a 48% chance of success compared to 51% for a Republican opponent.
Montana, which Tradesports participants give each party even odds in, is the closest Senate race in the country. Republican incumbent Conrad Burns appears to be in trouble, in part due to his close ties to Jack Abramoff. At least four Democrats are considering challenging Burns in the race. Once promising Democratic candidate and state auditor John Morrison, no longer looks so appealing in this race, but other candidates like Jon Tester do look promising. This is truly audacious, given that Montana has historically been one of the most Republican states in the nation. In 2004, George W. Bush got 59% of the vote in Montana. Burns was first elected to the Senate in 1988, and so is seeking reelection for the third time in 2006.