01 May 2007

Denver Municipal Election Results (Updated)

So, the election is over (except for runoffs) and its time for popcorn.

According to the Election Commission's first round of results (with 30.0% turnout -- basically all pre-Tuesday voting):

Votes/Total Votes % Votes
- Bill Wells 12190/ 56,879 21.43%
- Dennis J. Gallagher 44689/ 56,879 78.57%

Votes/Total Votes % Votes
- Jacob Werther 11403/ 51,612 22.09%
- Stephanie Y. O'Malley 40209/ 51,612 77.91%

Votes/Total Votes % Votes
- Carol Boigon 25001/ 80,117 31.21%
- Doug Linkhart 32961/ 80,117 41.14%
- Carol E. Campbell 22155/ 80,117 27.65%

Votes/Total Votes % Votes
- Rick Garcia 3975/ 3,975 100.00%

Votes/Total Votes % Votes
- Jeanne Robb 5443/ 5,443 100.00%

Votes/Total Votes % Votes
- Michael Hancock 3396/ 3,396 100.00%

Votes/Total Votes % Votes
- Jeanne Faatz 5587/ 5,587 100.00%

Votes/Total Votes % Votes
- Antoinette Alire 54/ 2,668 2.02%
- Paul D. L�pez 1187/ 2,668 44.49%
- Niccolo Casewit 123/ 2,668 4.61%
- JoAnn Phillips 428/ 2,668 16.04%
- Kathy Sandoval 325/ 2,668 12.18%
- Mark Roggeman 302/ 2,668 11.32%
- Ben Romero 249/ 2,668 9.33%

Votes/Total Votes % Votes
- Peggy A. Lehmann 5231/ 8,107 64.52%
- Ike Kelley 1687/ 8,107 20.81%
- Bill Rutherford 1189/ 8,107 14.67%

Votes/Total Votes % Votes
- R.J. Ours 636/ 7,530 8.45%
- Marcia Johnson 5788/ 7,530 76.87%
- Mitchell Poindexter 1106/ 7,530 14.69%

Votes/Total Votes % Votes
- Charlie Brown 6107/ 6,107 100.00%

Votes/Total Votes % Votes
- Shelly Watters 1365/ 4,800 28.44%
- Dennis Smith 328/ 4,800 6.83%
- Chris Nevitt 2211/ 4,800 46.06%
- Julie Connor 896/ 4,800 18.67%

Votes/Total Votes % Votes
- Darrell B. Watson 1216/ 4,546 26.75%
- Carla Madison 1255/ 4,546 27.61%
- Sharon Bailey 1697/ 4,546 37.33%
- Greg Rasheed 378/ 4,546 8.32%

Votes/Total Votes % Votes
- Judy H. Montero 2103/ 2,877 73.10%
- Waldo Benavidez 774/ 2,877 26.90%

Votes/Total Votes % Votes
- Danny F. Lopez 7641/ 62,339 12.26%
- John Hickenlooper 54698/ 62,339 87.74%

DA Term Limits 0/420 0.00%
Votes/Total Votes % Votes
YES 44567/ 58,274 76.48%
NO 13707/ 58,274 23.52%

Most of my predictions were right, but a couple were a little off.

I predicted a Council District 8 runoff between Watson and Madison. But, at this hour, it looks like Bailey and Madison, with Watson 0.86% (39 votes) behind second place Madison. This race could still swing based on ballots cast today that haven't yet been counted. Madison's Denver Post endorsement probably helped her edge out Watson.

In a Bailey v. Madison race, I think Bailey probably has an edge with Watson and Rasheed supporters over Madison, whose appeal is greater in the central business district area. Madison, of course, needs to win a supermajority of Watson and Rasheed supporters to win, in any case.

If the tide turns based upon today's voting and it becomes a Bailey v. Watson race, it is harder to tell how the race will come out, but I'm inclined to think that Madison supporters would disproportionately favor Bailey, if for no reason other than that the competition between Madison and Watson in the first round was very hot, while almost nobody campaigned against Bailey.

I predicted a Council District 3 runoff between Lopez and Romero. In fact, the runoff will be between Lopez and Phillips. The Lopez v. Phillips runoff is big enough that it is unlikely to be upset by today's returns. Kathy Sandoval, next in the vote count, is 103 votes behind Phillips (almost 4 percentage points). Assuming that Lopez holds onto voters who voted for him in the first round, he needs only about one in seven of voters who didn't vote for Phillips or himself to win. Phillips was endorsed by the Denver Post after my last set of predictions and this clearly gave her campaign a boost.

The third runoff, which I did predict will be between Nevitt and Watters. This result won't be changed by today's voting. Watters leads third place Connor by almost ten percentage points. Nevitt needs about one in six of the votes for Conner and Smith to win. He is unlikely to get many Smith votes (Smith was the only registered Republican in that non-partisan race, while Nevitt is a strongly labor union backed candidate), but he has a good shot at getting at least a quarter of Connor's votes. Watters Denver Post endorsement did little to upset the status quo in that race.

The Rocky Mountain News endorsements, while printed less often than those of the Denver Post, better match the results. The Rocky endorsed Lopez in District 3, Nevitt in District 7 and split its endorsement between Bailey and Madison in District 8.

UPDATE: 40 minutes later, the close races are even less close.

There are on the order of 3,000 votes to be counted citywide, at most, and far less than that in District 8 where it is most likely to matter, where the are probably something on the order of 400 more votes to be counted, split among four candidates. In the third council distict there are probably only 300 more votes to be counted and they are going to be split seven ways.

Madison and Watson supporters may want to hang on for late breaking results, but everyone else can call it a night and return to popcorn and after campaign beer.

Antoinette Alire's mere 60 vote showing in the 3rd Council District is notable, not only because it is the smallest number of votes cast for a non-write in candidate (the 3rd district has the lowest voter turnout and the largest number of candidates so someone in that race was bound to have that distinction) but also because, if I recall correctly, you need 100 signatures to get on the ballot -- Alire lost at least 40 of the people who signed her petition on the way to the mailbox to mail ballots.

Trust the Denver Post to run with the most uninformative headline imaginable for anyone who has been paying any attention to prior coverage of this race: "Hickenlooper Re-elected." When did they come up with that one? Last month? The mediocre Denver Post coverage of city issues continues. The Rocky in fairness, does little better, proclaiming "Hick Wins Second Term", although it does have subheadlines about other races that are mildly more informative.

FINAL UPDATE: At 8:18 p.m. the next round of results has come in, and with 68,960 votes counted, better than 36% turnout, which should be nearly all of them (and all but about 100 votes or so, if that, in the critical 8th Council District race) there is still a 75 vote lead for Madison over Watson. Today's races are over. Everybody can go drinking now.


Andrew Oh-Willeke said...

Final result here.

Andrew Oh-Willeke said...

Denver Politics has a great wrap up analysis, concurring that the runoffs in 3 and 7 are almost foregone conclusions, and noting that even 8 will be a tough slog for Madison given historical precedents.