24 August 2007

The Iowa Presidential Nomination Race

Via Zogby (hat tip to Tancredo Watch):

Republicans--Aug. 17--May 15
Fred Thompson--12%-------9%
Tommy Thompson-Out-------4%
Someone else----2%--------3%
Not sure--------14%-------22%

The Newsmax/Zogby telephone survey, conducted August 17-18, 2007, included 487 likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

The GOP nomination is Romney's to lose. Other polls have shown McCain and Guiliani falling even faster than Zogby's does. A commentator at Tancredo Watch thinks Brownback is on the verge of getting out of the race. Fred Thompson still hasn't officially announced, officially denying that he is officially running as recently as August 1, 2007, and Hamlets don't become Presidents. Tancredo is and always has been a joke as a Presidential candidate. Paul would run into the same roadblocks that Giuliani did once GOP voters got to know him, if they ever did. Everyone else is too far back to start now.

Huckabee could give Romney a run for his money. But, Romney should have an edge in New Hampshire where he is probably better known by the locals than any of the other candidates. If Romney secures a solid first place finish in Iowa and New Hampshire, group think will take over, even in a compressed primary season.

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