Some Automobile Industry Predictions

* I predict that within ten years, the automobile manufacturing company Tesla, will offer a plug in electric vehicle which, like the Chevy Volt, has a fossil fuel powered back up generator to charge batteries when charging stations are unavailable.

* I predict that within ten years there will be very strong regional differences between countries, states, and smaller the country or state sized regions, in rates of electric vehicle utilization, because some areas will develop a robust networks of electric vehicle charging that makes electric vehicles more attractive creating a "virtuous cycle" of increased electric vehicles use, while other areas will have only anemic networks of electric vehicle charging facilities which will lead to a "vicious cycle" of little investment in vehicle charging facility networks because there is little demand for them.

* Currently, the market share of the U.S. automobile companies for cars and light trucks (GM 17.1% (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Holden, Jiefang, OnStar, Wuling, Baojun), Ford 14.4% (including Lincoln) and Tesla 0.7%) is 32.2% of the market as of 2018. A list of world automobile manufacturers current and defunct is here.

Toyota is 14.0% (Japanese) (also Lexus)
Chrysler-Fiat 12.9% (Italian) (also Abarth, Alfa Romeo, Jeep, Dodge, Ram, Maserati and Lancia)
Honda is 9.3% (Japanese) (also Acura)
Nissan is 8.6% (Japanese) (also Infiniti)
Hyundai-Kia is 7.3% [1] (South Korean)
Subaru a.k.a. Fuji Heavy Industries 4.0% (Japanese)

Volkswagen Group 3.3% (German) (also Audi, Bentley, Lamborghini, Seat and Cupra)
Daimler a.k.a Mercedes 2.1% [2] (German) (also Smart and Maybach)

BMW 2.1% (German) (also Mini and Rolls-Royce)

Mazda 1.7% (Japanese)
Jaguar Land Rover 0.7% [3] (Indian)
Mitsubishi 0.7% (Japanese)

Volvo 0.6% [4] (China) (also Lotus)
Porshe 0.3% (German)
Other 0.1%

Market Share Percentage By Region

Japanese 38.3%

U.S. 32.2%

Italian 12.9%

German 7.6%
South Korean 7.3%
Indian 0.7%

China 0.6%

Total sales: 17,274,250

Even treating Chrysler-Fiat as American, the U.S. market share would be 45.1%.

Of course, these statistics conceal as much as they reveal. Many "foreign cars" are mostly made in the U.S., Canada and/or Mexico. Likewise, each of these companies generate profits for shareholders from myriad nations. And, essentially all of the employment generated from selling and maintaining "foreign vehicles" in the U.S. is U.S. based. In the case of Chrysler-Fiat, unlike the other companies, a lot of the design and upper management employment is also U.S. based.

[1] Hyundai Motor Company was founded in 1967 and it, along with its 32.8% owned subsidiary, Kia Motors, and its 100% owned luxury subsidiary Genesis Motor, altogether comprise the Hyundai Motor Group. Kia in turn is a minority owner of more than twenty Hyundai subsidiaries ranging from 4.9% up to 45.37%.

[2] Daimler has small percentage ownerships by Chinese car market Geely 9.7%, French car maker Renault 1.54% and Japanese car maker Nissan 1.54%.

[3] Formerly U.K. owned Jaguar Land Rover and formerly South Korean Daewoo are subsidiaries of Indian car maker Tata.

[4] Swedish firm Volvo is a subsidiary of Chinese car market Geely.

There are a number of companies which sell only luxury cars or sports cars often including a small number in the U.S. market such as Ferrari (Italian), Pagani (Italian), Aston-Martin (U.K.), McLaren (U.K.), and Koenigsegg (Sweden).

French car maker PSA (with the Citroën, Peugeot, DS, Opel and Vauxhall brands) and Renault, Japanese car maker Suzuki, and Czech car maker Skoda are almost entirely absent from the U.S. market.

Bugatti, which was French, went out of business in 1963. Saab, which was Swedish, went out of business in 2012.

I don't have a good prediction regarding how this market share will change over time, as I can see forced working in the direction of greater than lesser U.S. market share. I do predict, however, that at least one additional country other than Japan, Italy, South Korea and Germany will export a greater than 1% share of U.S. cars and light truck within ten years.