04 March 2020

Democratic Presidential Race Results Through Super Tuesday

Popular vote totals through Super Tuesday:

1. Biden 4,820,409
2. Sanders 3,906,337
3. Warren 1,743,524
4. Bloomberg 1,689,001
5. Buttigieg 594,772
6. Klobuchar 378,545
7. Steyer 208,734
8. Gabbard 100,604
9. Yang 75,783

From Real Clear Politics.

Excludes smaller popular vote totals for a handful of candidates like Patrick and Bennet who dropped out of the race early on.

The delegate count post-Super Tuesday below has not been complied fully yet and excludes not yet allocated delegates in large numbers in states shown below:

1. Biden 553
2. Sanders 488
3. Warren 61
4. Bloomberg 50
5. Buttigieg 26 (final)
6. Klobuchar 7 (final)
7. Steyer 0 (final)
8. Gabbard 1 (final)
9. Yang 0 (final)

Total allocated: 1186 pledged delegates

Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Gabbard delegates probably lean towards Biden since all of them by Gabbard have endorsed Biden, and Gabbard is definitely not a progressive. Collectively they have 84 delegates so far.

Warren delegates probably lean towards Sanders and she has 61 delegates so far.

Not yet allocated pledged delegates from Super Tuesday (a handful may have gone to candidates who dropped out the race not listed above) with the percentage point lead of Sanders v. Biden in each state:

California 144 (Sanders +8.7) 
Texas 93 (Biden + 4.3)
Colorado 28 (Sanders + 13.0)
Utah 19 (Sanders +17.5)
Tennessee 13 (Biden + 16.8)
North Carolina 7 (Biden + 18.9)
Arkansas 3 (Biden +18.2)
Massachusetts 3 (Biden + 7.1)
Minnesota 1 (Biden + 8.7)

Total unallocated: 311 pledged delegates

Since most of the not yet allocated pledged delegates come from states that Sanders won, or where Biden had only a slight lead over Sanders, the final delegate count post-Super Tuesday will considerably narrow the 65 delegate lead that Biden has over Sanders and could even put Sanders in the lead.

This is encouraging news for Sanders, because the post-Super Tuesday calendar favors Sanders somewhat. A large share of the states most favorable to Biden have already held their contests. So, if Sanders and Biden are in basically a dead tie at the end of Super Tuesday, that tends to favor Sanders.

Bloomberg dropping out does help Biden in contests going forward, but if Warren drops out, Sanders will receive a big boost going forward that was handicapping him on Super Tuesday, when the progressive vote was divided, but the moderate vote was much more consolidated.

The Democratic Presidential primary could easily go right down to the wire on the eve of the convention.

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