Colorado's Democratic U.S. Senate Primary Update

The Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate must replace incumbent Cory Gardner in the general election in 2020 is the Democrats are going to take back the U.S. Senate, and Colorado is a much more Democratic leaning state than it was six years ago when Gardner was elected, who is doing poorly in favorability ratings and head to head polls. 

While the polls are stale, Hickenlooper led Gardner 53-40 in an August 2019 poll and also had a commanding lead over Gardner in other polls in August and October of 2019 (53-42 in October 2019) (also here). Polling as of March 5, 2020 suggested that no other U.S. Senate seat is more likely to change parties than Colorado's.

A leading pundit has stated that the U.S. Senate race in Colorado "leans Democratic" noting that "Gardner’s 48%-46% victory in 2014 over then-U.S. Sen. Mark Udall came in part from a strong performance in Congressional District 6. Since then, the district has voted in much greater margins for Democrats."

The Cook Political Report rates the U.S. Senate race in Colorado as a mere toss up, but it is very hard to see hard evidence supporting that conclusion which is too bullish on Garnder's chances.

As of January 31 to February 4, 2020, a poll from the Rocky Mountaineer, a progressive research group showed that: "37% of all voters approve of Gardner’s job performance, less than the 44% who approve of Trump. Among “very conservative Republicans,” 99% approved of Trump, compared to 76% who approved of Gardner."

Most pundits and polling suggest that Colorado will be a relatively safe state for Joe Biden relative to Donald Trump in the President election in November. Colorado backed Democrats by safe margins in the Presidential races in 2008 (Obama), 2012 (Obama) and 2016 (Clinton). See, e.g., here. So, if Gardner is a weaker candidate than Trump in the eyes of Colorado voters, and either Democratic nominee is a stronger candidate than Biden in the eyes of Colorado voters, Gardner's odds of prevailing in the U.S. Senate race are poor indeed. And, Gardner has done basically nothing so far to put political distance between himself and the unpopular Donald Trump, or to court moderate voters in Colorado.

Voter registration has shifted towards Democrats in Colorado since 2014, the state has supported Democrats for statewide office since then. Democrats control both houses of the state legislature in Colorado. The 6th Congressional District is now held by Democrat Jason Crow.

The Democratic party's nominee will be chosen via a mail in primary ballot which must be received by June 30, 2020. There are two ways to get onto the primary ballot. The caucus process culminates in the state Democratic party assembly on Saturday is one way onto the ballot. The other way onto the ballot is to petition onto the ballot.

The race to take on Gardner has included 21 candidates over the past year and a half, the race dwindles to an assembly that pits only former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, educator Stephany Rose Spaulding and tech entrepreneur Erik Underwood. Romanoff won the U.S. Senate preference poll held at Democratic precinct caucuses on March 7 with 55% of the vote, ahead of Hickenlooper's 30%. Zornio [who announced she was dropping out of the U.S. Senate race today] was third with 6.4%. 

Former Gov. John Hickenlooper is assured a place on the June 30 ballot by turning in more than enough petitions to qualify on March 16. Lorena Garcia has submitted petitions and awaits word from the Secretary of State's Office if she has enough valid signatures from qualified voters in each congressional district. 

From Colorado Politics (order of paragraphs changed). 

Neither Stephany Rose Spaulding nor Erick Underwood have any meaningful chance of getting the 30% support needed to make it onto the Democratic primary ballot from the state assembly, let alone winning in the primary if either of them made it onto the ballot.

Andrew Romanoff will definitely get the top line spot on the Democratic U.S. Senate primary ballot by finishing in first place at the state assembly. John Hickenlooper will also be on the ballot as his petition to do so got sufficient signatures and was approved a month ago, although since he will not be the top finisher in the state assembly, he will not get the top line.

UPDATE (April 18, 2020): The state assembly results (per Morgan Carroll, the state party chair) are as follows:

END UPDATE

So, the only uncertainty is whether Lorena Garcia will manage to have enough signatures to make it onto the primary ballot. This may be an even odds proposition. There isn't even a 1% chance, realistically, that Lorena Garcia will be the nominee. Romanoff and Hickenlooper are at the top of the A list of potential Democratic party candidates, have strong name recognition, and both have wide support among likely Democratic primary voters. Lorena Garcia is almost completely unknown at the state level in Colorado and doesn't have the pre-existing base of support or top level experience that Romanoff or Hickenlooper do, and will be hard pressed to raise any meaningful campaign funds for her bid for the U.S. Senate nomination, even though many Democrats in the abstract would like to have a female woman of color as a nominee.

Hickenlooper easily led Romanoff in primary oriented polling in July and August of 2019.

Romanoff, who was the former Speaker of the State House from a seat representing the Washington Park neighborhood in Denver is the progressive candidate in the race. 

Hickenlooper is in the "moderate Democrat" slot who is tarnished most strongly in the eyes of those on the left by his ties to and support for the oil and gas industry in which he was employed as a geologist before he entered the real estate development and restaurant business, after which he became Denver's mayor, and then Colorado's governor. Hickenlooper will almost surely receive more campaign finance support than Romanoff in the Democratic primary, in part, because he has been endorsed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to the dismay of grass roots Democrats in Colorado who take umbrage at the national party meddling in their state party primary. Hickenlooper led Romanoff in campaign contributions by roughly 10-1 as of February 3, 2020 (pre-caucus).

Both men are remarkable individuals in terms of personal charisma, talent and political aptitude.

Romanoff's background, running in state house races, has been in face to face, knocking on doors style campaigns which he works harder at than anybody. His previous bid to win the 6th Congressional District, a bellwether for the state, failed, in part, because he didn't transition well to mass media oriented campaigning. Hickenlooper run his races for Denver mayor and Colorado governor with clever campaign ads and by presenting well on television and in the mass media arena that will be critical in a statewide campaign against Gardner.

Either man could win the U.S. Senate race against weak Cory Gardner. Some people think that Hickenlooper is more electable, and that may be true, but the race may not be so close that this really matters given that both candidates are solid ones. This race may not be "in the bag" for Democrats in the general election, but it is probably one of the most likely in the nation to replace a Republican with a Democrat in the U.S. Senate. See also here stating: "Sen. Cory Gardner (R) is considered one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the 2020 election."

I would prefer Andrew Romanoff as Colorado's U.S. Senator whom I supported in caucus, with whom I have something of a personal relationship having worked on many of his campaigns and having contributed to more of them, and will support on my primary ballot in all probability. Colorado could use a true liberal to counterbalance Michael Bennet, the very moderate Democrat who is Colorado's other U.S. Senator. But, I also have a far less negative opinion of John Hickenlooper, who is also an extraordinary man and not as conservative as many on the left believe, than most left leaning Democrats in Colorado, and would be the more competent and political left leaning of Colorado's two U.S. Senators if elected.