A Comprehensive Tally Of Presidential Race Polling

I've updated my May 4, 2020 tally of Presidential polling on a state by state basis below to reflect new Colorado polling and to add polls from all states where 2020 polling is available.

Analysis

Florida and four Rust Belt states are poised to flip from their 2016 support for Trump (all by more than the margin of polling error). Texas and North Carolina are also now toss ups. South Carolina and Iowa have gone from being safe states for Trump to merely leaning in his direction.

One striking point in the polling is that there is a huge and widespread shift away from Trump, even in safely blue and safely red states. Only California (+4.1), Georgia (+2.4), Massachusetts (+0.2), and New Mexico (+0.3) buck that trend, and then only by modest amounts and in safe red or blue states that won't affect the outcome of the election.

Updated Data

Biden leads Trump in national polling by 5.3 percentage points. In the 2016 election, Clinton received 2.1 percentage points of the popular vote more than Trump, but lost the electoral vote.

The 2016 election election results follow the current state polling average in parenthesis. The shift from the 2016 election to the 2020 polling follows that result. Polls older than February 2020 are specifically annotated to reflect the fact that these polls are stale.

Massachusetts (11) . . . . . Biden + 38 (Clinton + 38.2) R+0.2

New York (29) . . . . . . . .  Biden + 28 (Clinton + 21.3) D+8.7

California (55) . . . . . . . .  Biden + 26 (Clinton + 30.1) R+4.1

Washington State (12) . . . Biden + 23 (Clinton + 16.2) D+6.8

Colorado (9) . . . . . . . . . . Biden + 19 (Clinton + 4.9) D+14.1

Connecticut (7) . . . . . . . . Biden + 18 (Clinton + 12.2) D+5.8

New Jersey (14) . . . . . . .  Biden + 17.5 (Clinton + 12.8) D+4.7

Delaware (3) . . . . . . . . . . Biden + 16* (Clinton + 11.5) D+4.5

Minnesota (10) . . . . . . . . Biden + 12** (Clinton + 1.5) D+10.5
Maine (3)**** . . . . . . . . Biden + 10 (Clinton + 2.9) D+7.1

New Mexico (5) . . . . . . . Biden +8 (Clinton + 8.3) R + 0.3
Virginia (13) . . . . . . . . . . Biden + 7.3 (Clinton + 5.4) D+1.9
Pennsylvania (20) . . . . . . Biden + 6.5 (Trump + 0.7) D+7.2
Michigan (16) . . . . . . . . Biden + 5.5 (Trump + 0.3) D+ 5.8
New Hampshire (4) . . . . Biden + 4.6 (Clinton + 0.3) D+4.3
Arizona (11). . . . . . . . . . Biden + 4.4 (Trump + 3.3) D+7.7
Nevada (6) . . . . . . . . . . . Biden + 4.0* (Clinton + 2.4) D+1.6
Ohio (18) . . . . . . . . . . . . Biden + 4.0 (Trump + 8.1) D+12.1
Florida (29) . . . . . . . . . . Biden + 3.2 (Trump + 1.2) D+4.4

Wisconsin (10) . . . . . . . . Biden + 2.7 (Trump + 0.7) D+3.2

North Carolina (15) . . . . Trump + 0.3 (Trump + 3.7) D+3.4
Texas (38) . . . . . . . . . . . . Trump + 1.4 (Trump + 9.0) D+7.6

South Carolina (9) . . . . . . Trump + 4 (Trump + 14.1) D+10.1
Iowa (6) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Trump + 4.6 (Trump + 9.5) D+4.9

Georgia (16) . . . . . . . . . . Trump + 7.5 (Trump + 5.1) R+2.4

Utah (6) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Trump + 10.3 (Trump + 18.1) D+7.8

Kansas (6) . . . . . . . . . . . . Trump + 12.0 (Trump + 21.0) D+9.0

Indiana (11) . . . . . . . . . . . Trump + 13.0 (Trump + 19.0) D+6.0

Mississippi (6) . . . . . . . . . Trump + 15.0 (Trump + 18.5) D+3.5

Tennessee (11) . . . . . . . . . Trump + 16* (Trump + 26.2) D+10.2

Alabama (9) . . . . . . . . . . Trump + 20.0 (Trump + 27.7) D+7.7

Kentucky (8) . . . . . . . . . . Trump + 20.0*** (Trump + 29.8) D+9.8

* Last polling from January 2020.
** Last polling from October 2019.

*** Last polling from June 2019.

**** Excludes Maine's Second Congressional District in electoral vote total. Maine's Second Congressional District is treated as an unpolled safe Republican electoral vote in this tally.

The following seven safe blue states are not including in polling tally because no polls are available: Washington D.C. (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maryland (10), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3).

The following thirteen safe red states (and Congressional Districts) are not including in polling tally because no polls are available: Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Louisiana (8), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Maine's Second Congressional District (1), Nebraska except Nebraska's  2nd Congressional District (4), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Dakota (3), West Virginia (5), and Wyoming (3).

Nebraska's Second Congressional District casts its one electoral vote separately and is more liberal than the state as a whole (as a whole Nebraska is a safe red state) and viewed by Cook's Political Report as a "toss up". Five of the six states classified that way by Cook's Political Report are currently polling in favor of Biden by more than the polling margin of error; the sixth, North Carolina, is Trump + 0.3. So, I assume that NE-2, if polled would have polled in favor of Biden.

Electoral Vote Analysis

Total Electoral Votes For Biden Based On Polling: 337

Total Electoral Votes For Trump Based On Polling: 201

It take 270 electoral votes to win. In the event that each candidate receives 269 electoral votes or there is a tie for some other reason, the outcome is decided by Congress in a special process set forth in the U.S. Constitution that has never been used.

So, Biden can lose states and Congressional Districts with a combined 67 electoral votes currently in his column and still win the Electoral vote. For example, if he won either Nebraska's Second Congressional District or Maine's Second Congressional District, he could afford to lose Wisconsin, Florida and Ohio and still win the Electoral Vote.

Assuming that state polling percentages near the margins are perfectly correlated with national polling percentages, Biden needs to be polling nationally with a 1.3 percentage point lead or less for Trump to win the electoral vote based upon the polling totals above.