The partisan edge due to the Electoral College was worse in 2020 than at any time since 1948, 1936, 1920, 1876 and 1872 (the flip from 1872 to 1876 was particularly stunning). But the fact that it has changed over time provides a little hope. Much of the change is due to shifting partisan coalitions. It is also worth observing that the partisan edge only matters when the parties are roughly equally balanced, which is a state they are naturally attracted to according to political theory, but isn't a stable equilibrium.
It is also notable that in 2008 and 2012, Colorado was a tipping point state, while now it is a safe blue state.
The chart is from 538.
| YEAR | NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE | TIPPING-POINT STATE(S) | TIPPING-POINT MARGIN | ELECTORAL COLLEGE EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | D+4.5 | WI (D), PA (R) | D+0.9 | R+3.5 |
| 2016 | D+2.1 | WI* | R+0.8 | R+2.9 |
| 2012 | D+3.9 | CO | D+5.4 | D+1.5 |
| 2008 | D+7.3 | CO (D), IA (R) | D+9.2 | D+2.0 |
| 2004 | R+2.5 | OH | R+2.1 | D+0.4 |
| 2000 | D+0.5 | FL | R+0.0 | R+0.5 |
| 1996 | D+8.5 | PA | D+9.2 | D+0.7 |
| 1992 | D+5.6 | TN | D+4.7 | R+0.9 |
| 1988 | R+7.7 | MI | R+7.9 | R+0.2 |
| 1984 | R+18.2 | MI | R+19.0 | R+0.8 |
| 1980 | R+9.7 | IL | R+7.9 | D+1.8 |
| 1976 | D+2.1 | WI | D+1.7 | R+0.4 |
| 1972 | R+23.1 | OH (R), ME (D) | R+22.3 | D+0.9 |
| 1968 | R+0.7 | OH (R), IL (D) | R+2.6 | R+1.9 |
| 1964 | D+22.6 | WA | D+24.6 | D+2.0 |
| 1960 | D+0.2 | MO (D), NJ (R) | D+0.7 | D+0.5 |
| 1956 | R+15.4 | FL | R+14.5 | D+0.9 |
| 1952 | R+10.9 | MI | R+11.5 | R+0.6 |
| 1948 | D+4.5 | CA (D), IL (R) | D+0.6 | R+3.8 |
| 1944 | D+7.5 | NY | D+5.0 | R+2.5 |
| 1940 | D+9.9 | PA | D+6.9 | R+3.1 |
| 1936 | D+24.3 | OH | D+20.6 | R+3.7 |
| 1932 | D+17.8 | IA | D+17.7 | R+0.1 |
| 1928 | R+17.4 | IL | R+14.7 | D+2.8 |
| 1924 | R+25.2 | NY | R+26.6 | R+1.4 |
| 1920 | R+26.2 | RI | R+31.2 | R+5.0 |
| 1916 | D+3.1 | CA | D+0.4 | R+2.8 |
| 1912 | D+18.7 | IA (D), NJ (R) | D+17.0 | R+1.7 |
| 1908 | R+8.5 | WV | R+10.2 | R+1.7 |
| 1904 | R+18.8 | NJ | R+18.6 | D+0.2 |
| 1900 | R+6.2 | IL | R+8.4 | R+2.2 |
| 1896 | R+4.3 | OH | R+4.8 | R+0.5 |
| 1892 | D+3.0 | IL (D), CT (R) | D+3.2 | D+0.2 |
| 1888 | D+0.8 | NY | R+1.1 | R+1.9 |
| 1884 | D+0.6 | NY | D+0.1 | R+0.5 |
| 1880 | R+0.1 | NY | R+1.9 | R+1.8 |
| 1876 | D+3.0 | SC | R+0.5 | R+3.5 |
| 1872 | R+11.8 | OH | R+7.1 | D+4.7 |
| 1868 | R+5.3 | NC (R), AR (D) | R+7.1 | R+1.8 |
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