24 June 2022

How Religious Are People In Different U.S. States?

The data on which U.S. states are most religious isn't very surprising, but worth a view anyway, as summarized by this 2022 summary of a Pew Study on the topic. 

There is not a comprehensive way to determine what states are the most religious. However, Pew Research Center’s Religious Landscape Study gives us the best picture of what states are the most religious.

This study looks at four measures to determine what states are the most religious. . . . 
Religious attendance
Frequency of prayer
Belief in God
Self-assessment of the importance of religion . . .

Seventy-seven percent of Alabama residents stated that religion was very important within their own lives, compared to just 74% of people who said the same in Mississippi. Mississippi topped Alabama when it came to prayers, with 75% of Mississippi people stating they pray daily compared to just 73% of people in Alabama.

When it comes to attending worship services, neither Alabama nor Mississippi came out on top. That honor went to the state of Utah, where 53% of residents attend worship services at least weekly. Alabama came in second place with 51% of residents regularly attending services, while Mississippi came in 4th with 49%.

For belief in God, both states were tied. 82% of people in each state believe in God with absolute certainty.

From here (along with the table below, which I have color coded by state level 2020 Presidential election results with red supporting Trump and blue supporting Biden). 

In the United States as a whole, 55% of adults are religious as determined by Pew's standards, a figure quite close to the best dividing line between state election outcomes. 

StateReligious Adults
Alabama77.00%
Mississippi77.00%
Tennessee73.00%
Louisiana71.00%
Arkansas70.00%
South Carolina70.00%
West Virginia69.00%
Georgia66.00%
Oklahoma66.00%
North Carolina65.00%
Texas64.00%
Utah64.00%
Kentucky63.00%
Virginia61.00%
Missouri60.00%
South Dakota59.00%
Ohio58.00%
New Mexico57.00%
Iowa55.00%
Kansas55.00%
New Jersey55.00%
Florida54.00%
Indiana54.00%
Maryland54.00%
Nebraska54.00%
Wyoming54.00%
Arizona53.00%
Michigan53.00%
North Dakota53.00%
Pennsylvania53.00%
Delaware52.00%
Idaho51.00%
Illinois51.00%
California49.00%
Minnesota49.00%
Nevada49.00%
Rhode Island49.00%
Montana48.00%
Oregon48.00%
Colorado47.00%
Hawaii47.00%
New York46.00%
Alaska45.00%
Washington45.00%
Wisconsin45.00%
Connecticut43.00%
Maine34.00%
Vermont34.00%
Massachusetts33.00%
New Hampshire33.00%
Map from here.

Political Analysis

Overall Trends

It is not surprising to anyone familiar with U.S. politics that political identity is links to how religious you are: more religious people, on average, are more likely to support Republicans, while less religious people, on average, are more likely to support Democrats, although correlation isn't perfect. Also, it is worth noting that many of the states in the middle of the ranking of percentage of religious adults, were also swing states: Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, for example, each of which were 53% religious, were each states with quite close outcomes. 

There is a certain irony in this, as former President Donald Trump is not at all a religious man, even though many very religious white American Christians have embraced him as a prophetic savior, while President Biden is a very devout Catholic and has been for his entire political career.

States with large percentages of Hispanic and non-white voters are more likely to support Democrats, even though these demographics are often quite religious. More urban states are also more likely to support Democrats, while rural states are also more likely to support Republicans.

To oversimplify, the Democratic party is a coalition of urban less religious white voters and non-white voters, while the Republican party is made up of less urban, more religious white voters.

The More Religious States

Only five of the twenty-six states with 54% or more of adults who were religious (Georgia, Virginia, New Mexico, New Jersey, and Maryland) voted for Biden. 

All of the outliers have large populations of religious non-whites, Georgia, Virginia, New Jersey, and Maryland are relatively urban and many of the non-Hispanic whites who live in these states live in urban areas (and are often relatively recent migrants from other places). 

New Mexico is 49% Hispanic and only 37% of New Mexicans are non-Hispanic white. Maryland is 50% non-Hispanic white. Georgia is 52% non-Hispanic white. New Jersey is 55% non-Hispanic white. Virginia is 62% non-Hispanic white. New Jersey also has a significant number of very religious non-Christians. 

Mining and agriculture are not particularly central to the economies of Georgia, Virginia, New Jersey, and Maryland (something that is a relatively recent development in Georgia and Virginia).

The Less Religious States

Only four of the twenty-four states with 53% or fewer of adults who were religious (North Dakota, Idaho, Montana, and Alaska) voted for Trump. 

North Dakota, Idaho, and Montana are all very rural and have few black or Hispanic voters. Montana is 86% non-Hispanic white. North Dakota is 84% non-Hispanic white. Idaho is 82% non-Hispanic white. None of them have any really major cities.

Agriculture and mining are very important components of the economies in all of these outlier states.

The Case of Alaska

Alaska, however, in addition to being the least religious state that supported Trump, is only 60% non-Hispanic white, the same percentage of the United States as a whole (with Native Alaskans making up the largest share of non-white residents), and unlike many other red states, its white population is much more urban than its non-white population with a very large share of white Alaskans living in a handful of major cities. Alaska's people are also younger than the average state, which should favor Democrats.

On the other hand, Alaska perceives itself as very rural with much of its territory roadless and virtually uninhabited, and none of its cities being particularly large, and even many Alaskans in very urban areas are heavily reliant on the oil and gas industry. 

The Case of Wisconsin

Wisconsin, which was a very narrow Democratic win and hence not exactly an outlier, is still one of the more surprising cases. 

One wouldn't think that it would have been close as it isn't a very religious state (only five states are less religious), although it is still 81% non-Hispanic white, and isn't overwhelmingly rural (with some notable urban centers like Milwaukee and Madison). Part of the issue may be that while Wisconsin isn't overwhelmingly rural, it doesn't have all that many urban whites, and its non-white population isn't all that large. 

It may also be the case that lots of rural whites in Wisconsin aren't terribly religious (a secularization trend typical among white Catholics and Lutherans, who were historically predominant in Wisconsin) but remain conservative rural whites who identify as Christian anyway, despite not being very religious as measured by factors like church attendance and daily prayer.

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