Colorado Passenger Rail: Cool But Unnecessarily Expensive

The federal government will provide $500,000 in seed money to help kick-start construction of Colorado’s Front Range Passenger Rail project between Fort Collins and Pueblo — a decision that brings the prospect of millions more in future funding. 

The U.S. Department of Transportation and the Federal Railroad Administration are set to announce that the rail project will be included in the Corridor Identification and Development Program, according to a news release issued Wednesday by U.S. Rep. Joe Neguse, a Democrat from Lafayette. The program is a major component of the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law that aims to facilitate the development of intercity passenger rail corridors across the nation. Front Range rail’s inclusion could mean significant money from the federal government over the coming years as the project moves closer to reality. 

Among its chief boosters is Gov. Jared Polis. “This corridor stretches across more than 160 miles, connecting 13 of the most populous counties across the state and acting as a transportation ‘spine’ for the Front Range,” Neguse said in a statement. “I am excited to see this project become a reality for our growing communities.” . . .

Early estimates have put the cost for a starter system — likely to be operated by Amtrak in a partnership — at $1.7 billion to $2.8 billion, with as many as six trains a day running mostly on shared freight tracks connecting cities including Pueblo, Colorado Springs, Denver and Fort Collins.

The first passenger trains between Fort Collins and Pueblo could be rolling within the next decade, Karsian said. Later upgrades to speed up service and add more frequent trains would add billions of dollars to the cost.

From the Denver Post. 

The Front Range railway plan is in flux but calls for passenger service that potentially would start as far north as Cheyenne, Wyoming, and go as far south as Pueblo or Trinidad, eventually linking with Amtrak’s Southwest Chief.

Last week, Amtrak officials expressed strong support for the regional line and said they would work to help pay for it. Costs for an initial route have been estimated at $2 billion or more, making use of existing freight rail corridors, with a full buildout costing as much as $14 billion. State legislators are considering a bill that would create a Front Range Passenger Rail District in all or parts of 13 counties to oversee the effort.

From the Denver Post.

Front range passenger rail is cool, but it doesn't makes much economic sense.

Front range passenger rail would be much cheaper than passenger rail in the I-70 corridor from DIA to the mountains (by a factor of ten or more) where the need is arguably much greater (I-70 is routinely locked in stop and go traffic in the mountains), because building both road and rail in the mountains is expensive as a result of the difficult terrain.

The Limited Benefits In Speed

I-25, making maximum use of HOV lanes as a luxury bus would, is quite fast for much of the route from Fort Collins to Pueblo route: 75 mph for much of the trip and 55 mph or more for the rest.

Traditional Amtrak service on rails shared with freight trains averages 45-60 mph. Enhanced shared freight line service would be hard pressed to exceed average speeds of 75-100 mph. 

True dedicated high speed rail with average speeds of 125-200 mph is possible and would be a meaningful improvement in speed, but would be much more expensive than what is proposed for $2 billion or so, and wouldn't serve all that many people even considering increased traffic made possible by higher speeds.

Time spent going to and from airports, security, and boarding time destroys the time advantage for airplane travel between Colorado's front range cities (even though commercial aircraft on short flights are going 350-550 miles per hour when actually flying), and those flights are pretty expense compared to the current alternatives as well.

The Intercity Bus Service Alternative

Luxury bus service would be at least 10 times less expensive to implement the front range passenger rail sharing freight rail lines, even with some added stretches of HOV lanes, new electric powered luxury buses to be environmentally comparable to electrically powered passenger rail engines (if used), and nice new dedicated intercity bus stations (or upgrades to existing bus stations) to make it more attractive to would be passengers.

We already have a state subsidized luxury bus service filling this need from Fort Collins to Colorado Springs, called Bustang, which gets modest but steady use, and makes one or two round trip runs a day. Current adult one way, one time Bustang fares are $10 from Fort Collins to Denver and $12 from Denver to Colorado Springs.

The drive from Colorado Springs to Pueblo, in particular, is very fast, in part, because there isn't much traffic on the route. The cost-benefit ratio of adding existing freight line passenger rail to Pueblo, compared to expanded Bustang service, is particularly low because of the reduced speed benefits and low levels of traffic.