Other Polling Averages

FiveThirtyEight's polling averages are the most credible in my opinion. It gives Trump a 52% chance of winning the Presidential race, and provides these swing state averages:

In national polling averages, Harris leads by 1.3 percentage points, which is probably too little to win the Electoral College (this takes a lead of about 3.4 percentage points in national polls for a Democrat).

The national polling also presents the conundrum that Harris has a positive 0.1 percentage point favorability rating, while Trump has a -8.5 percentage point favorability rating, a disparity that isn't reflected in the head to head general election polling.

But FiveThirtyEight isn't the only game in town.

Real Clear Politics, which is right leaning and not nearly as sophisticated or credible provides this data set (which emphasize the 2020 and 2016 elections as a benchmark):

The New York Times provides these averages (which would also probably imply a Trump win if they are perfectly accurate):

CNN's latest polls of likely voters have a tie in Pennsylvania (48-48) and a lead for Harris in Michigan (48-43) and Wisconsin (51-45).

The Presidential race is clearly very close in many of the seven swing states. Trump has improved his position in the polling in the last week or two, giving him a slight edge in all three sets of polling averages, and all three have the critical state of Pennsylvania leaning slightly in Trump's favor.

But given systemic polling biases against Trump in 2016 and 2020, and efforts to overcome those biases by pollsters in 2024, the race is too close to call.

The odds that the control of the U.S. Senate will flip to the GOP are very strong. FiveThirtyEight puts it at 89%. The close Senate races are as follows, and Democrats need Ohio, plus the states where they are leading, plus Florida or Texas, to keep a majority even if Harris wins.

FiveThirtyEight estimates the odds of the Republicans holding onto the House at 52% with a most likely result of a narrow 218-217 seat majority, which would be a few seats less than the House GOP's current majority. There are two House seats (in California and Washington State) that lean GOP by less than a percentage point and two House seats (in New York State and Michigan) that lean Democratic by less than a percentage point.

Analysis

A mere one or two percentage point difference between the polling averages and actual voting outcomes could dramatically swing these races one way or the other (and these results are likely to be strongly correlated).

Harris is unlikely to win and get control of both the House and the Senate if she wins. A Harris Presidency would also have to swim upstream against an ultraconservative U.S. Supreme Court. Arguably, these are plus factors for voters who dislike Trump, but are worried about expansive legislative action from Harris. 

If Trump wins, he will almost surely have a majority in the Senate, and he has a very good chance of having a thin majority in the House, which might be less factious than it is currently, with Trump as President to mediate their internal disputes. A GOP trifecta compounded by the current ultraconservative U.S. Supreme Court would give Trump immense power. If Trump wins the Presidency, but Democrats flip the House, in contrast, his power would be at least somewhat restrained.