Not All Races Are Close

It is worth recalling that while there are some very close races this year, most aren't close at all.

Out of 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, only seven has a polling lead for on candidate or the other of two percentage points or less. The next closest race Minnesota, is one where Harris has a 5.7 percentage point lead.

There are 66 U.S. Senate seats that aren't even up for re-election this year: 28 held by Democrats and 38 held by Republicans. Ohio is the only one with a margin for the leader of less than two percentage points in the polls. In the next seven closest races, the leader has a lead of two point five to five point five percentage points. Twenty-six more Senate races aren't remotely close with the leader having a polling edge of eight point five or more percentage points.

There are 435 U.S. House races. Two have uncontested Republican candidates. But, of the other 433, only six have a leader with a two percentage point lead or less. Twenty-four more have a leader with a five point five percentage point lead or less. The other 403 contested U.S. House races have a candidate with more than a five point five percentage point lead.

So, there are just 7 close states in the Presidential race, 8 remotely close Senate races (only one of which is a true toss up), and 30 remotely close House races (only six of which are true toss ups).

The Presidential race isn't close in the District of Columbia or in 43 U.S. states. There is no U.S. Senate race for 66 seats and 26 more U.S. Senate races aren't close. There are 405 U.S. House races that are either uncontested or not close.

This is also true of a great many down ticket races.

If it weren't for the fact that the nation is quite evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, so that the close elections will actually decide the national outcomes this year, this would be a boring election.

Of course, some races that polled as not being close could end up being close, and some races that polled as being close could end up having far less close actual outcome. That's why we actually have to hold elections.