The best predictions of the election outcomes in the U.S. show a coin flip for the results in the Presidential race and control of the U.S. House, with the marginal states and congressional districts respectively at fraction of percent margins.
Republicans will almost surely narrowly control the U.S. Senate, with 51-52 GOP seats.
Plan A-1
If Harris wins the Presidency and Democrats win the House, we have a very different future. This would be not all that different from the present, which isn't all that bad. A strong economy, record low crime, and the U.S. not actually fighting any major wars. Trump will be headed to prison or at least house arrest, and more criminal prosecutions will await him. The January 6 criminals will not be pardoned.
Harris won't be able to pass major legislation righting the political balance with a Republican Senate in the first two years, but will probably be able to get a couple of Republicans in the Senate to back necessary appointments and budget legislation, at least. Mitch McConnell, the currently minority leader in the Senate and soon to be the majority leader in the Senate has pretty much indicated he'd prefer a Harris Presidency to a Trump Presidency, so he'd probably cooperate enough with Harris to keep the government functioning.
Looming would be the issue of how do deprogram the deluded 48% who backed Trump after the lies that they have swallowed, and how to address their fear of the Democratic policies that are aimed at helping them. Each election also weakens their demographic base.
Plan A-2
A Harris wins with Republicans controlling both houses of Congress is possible. This would be worse, but the veto power would afford us some protection from Republican excess. Biden has managed to deal with a small Republican majority in the House so far, and due to unreliable Senators elected from his own party who subsequently left the Democratic Party, has limited power in the Senate anyway.
The Republican MAGA movement would also eventually have Trump facing the consequences of his criminal acts and too old and losing cognitive capacity too fast to run again in 2028 at the age of 82, that could deflate the movement and demographic change eats away at it.
Plan B-1
If Trump wins the Presidency and Republicans win the House, we have one future, where Trump is essentially unchecked by Congress or the Courts. This could be grim indeed. It might very well mark the end of our nation's nearly 250 year old run as a democracy, and replace it with fascism.
In that case, the biggest question is how much damage will be done before 78 year old Trump (who isn't particularly healthy) dies or has his already apparent dementia advance to the point that J.D. Vance replaces him. If so, what happens next? Can democracy be restored? J.D. Vance seemed like an O.K. guy before he blatantly did a MAGA turnabout for political gain and it is unclear what he would be like outside of Trump's shadow but still needing the MAGA base for political support.
State governments and their prerogatives would limit a total immediate shift. There is also the related question of how the state law criminal cases against Trump would proceed.
Liberal and moderate federal judges could delay the process. Trump has threatened to purge the civil service, but that can't be done overnight. Serious legislation would require abolishing the filibuster, which would probably be done, but might again delay the process.
Is it better to fight, or is flight the right option?
Plan B-2
A Trump Presidential win with a narrow Democratic majority in the House is possible. This outcome is better than a Republican trifecta, but still pretty bad. One can do lots of mischief with the Presidency even without new legislation, if the ultra-conservative Supreme Court backs you up and the Senators from your party let you appoint whomever you want to executive post spots and to the courts.
It will be one constitutional crisis after another, but perhaps it would not be quite as impossible to overcome.
No comments:
Post a Comment