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20 November 2016

Colorado Rocks Voter Turnout

Highest eligible voter turnout
1. Minnesota 74.2 percent
2. New Hampshire 72.6 percent
3. Colorado 71.3 percent 
Lowest eligible voter turnout
47(t). Tennessee, West Virginia 51.0%
49. Utah 46.4%
50. Hawaii 42.5%
From the Denver Post. The ultimate source of the turnout data is here.  Election results below are from CNN.

Nationally, eligible voter turnout was 58.4%.

Swing State Analysis

Trump won 306 electoral votes. He needed 270 to win, and 269 to tie sending the election to the U.S. House of Representatives where Trump would probably have won. Thus, if he had won 38 fewer electoral votes, he would have lost the Presidential race.

The marginal state that put Trump over the top was Pennsylvania where he won by a 1.2 percentage point margin.

What was turnout like in selected swing states and how did that compare to the results in those swing states?

Florida (Trump margin 119,770; 1.3 percentage points) 29 electoral votes

2016 Turnout 65.6% of VEP; disqualified 131,688 felons who were not currently incarcerated.

2012 Turnout 62.8% of VEP

2008 Turnout 66.1% of VEP


trump
49.1%
4,605,515
clinton
47.8%
4,485,745
johnson
2.2%
206,007
stein
0.7%
64,019

North Carolina (Trump margin 177,529; 3.8 percentage points) 15 electoral votes

2016 Turnout 64.9% of VEP; disqualified 5,747 felons who were not currently incarcerated

2012 Turnout 64.8% of VEP

2008 Turnout 65.5% of VEP


trump
50.5%
2,339,603
clinton
46.7%
2,162,074
johnson
2.8%
127,794

Pennsylvania (Trump margin 68,236; 1.2 percentage points) 20 electoral votes

2016 Turnout 61.4% of VEP; disqualified no felons who were not currently incarcerated.

2012 Turnout 59.5% of VEP

2008 Turnout 63.6% of VEP
trump
48.8%
2,912,941
clinton
47.6%
2,844,705
johnson
2.4%
142,653
stein
0.8%
48,912

Michigan (Trump margin 11,612; 0.3 percentage points) 16 electoral votes

2016 Turnout 65.6% of VEP; disqualified no felons who were not currently incarcerated.

2012 Turnout 64.7% of VEP

2008 Turnout 69.2% of VEP
trump
47.6%
2,279,805
clinton
47.3%
2,268,193
johnson
3.6%
173,057
stein
1.1%
50,700

Wisconsin (Trump margin 27,257; 1.0 percentage points) 10 electoral votes

2016 Turnout 68.3% of VEP; disqualified 66,222 felons who were not currently incarcerated

2012 Turnout 72.9% of VEP

2008 Turnout 72.4% of VEP
trump
47.9%
1,409,467
clinton
46.9%
1,382,210
johnson
3.6%
106,442
stein
1.1%
30,980

All turnout figures are persons voting for the highest office on the ballot. More details below the fold.


The data for all of  the states and for the U.S. as a whole, with the impact of the percentage of non-citizens and ineligible felons on the voting aged population, is as follows:


VEP % Non-citizen Prison Probation Parole Total Ineligible Felon
58.40% 8.40% 1,493,706 2,298,993 461,472 3,242,614 USA
58.70% 2.60% 31,691 53,640 8,097 69,826 AL
60.60% 4.30% 5,216 7,077 2,210 11,389 AK
56.30% 9.50% 37,516 73,232 7,502 86,028 AZ
52.50% 3.80% 17,756 28,192 21,743 55,287 AR
54.60% 16.70% 136,088 0 0 136,088 CA
71.30% 7.20% 19,121 0 10,067 29,188 CO
62.60% 8.60% 16,113 0 2,564 18,677 CT
64.00% 6.00% 6,625 15,665 676 16,073 DE
60.50% 9.00% 0 0 0 0 DC
65.60% 10.70% 95,671 227,087 4,519 227,359 FL
60.00% 7.10% 50,499 471,067 25,547 339,844 GA
42.50% 8.70% 5,721 0 0 5,721 HI
59.70% 4.40% 7,901 33,450 4,217 30,850 ID
60.10% 8.90% 46,465 0 0 46,465 IL
56.20% 3.60% 28,638 0 0 28,638 IN
68.60% 3.50% 8,686 29,929 5,769 31,215 IA
55.70% 5.40% 9,326 16,328 4,051 22,521 KS
59.50% 2.50% 21,402 54,107 16,729 68,431 KY
60.20% 2.80% 37,881 40,979 29,619 90,448 LA
69.90% 1.60% 0 0 0 0 ME
61.40% 9.00% 20,388 79,539 11,537 76,467 MD
65.30% 8.90% 10,014 0 0 10,014 MA
65.60% 3.60% 42,900 0 0 42,900 MI
74.20% 4.70% 10,003 97,661 6,642 71,335 MN
53.50% 1.90% 18,756 34,398 9,883 47,902 MS
61.90% 2.60% 31,432 47,303 18,495 76,417 MO
62.20% 1.20% 3,681 0 0 3,681 MT
61.70% 5.10% 5,221 12,940 1,067 13,534 NE
57.10% 12.60% 12,537 12,027 5,927 25,199 NV
72.60% 3.00% 2,867 0 0 2,867 NH
59.20% 11.60% 20,255 115,898 14,889 100,047 NJ
54.80% 7.30% 6,879 16,060 2,255 18,128 NM
52.40% 12.00% 48,376 0 44,889 93,265 NY
64.90% 5.90% 35,726 90,918 10,025 96,665 NC
60.10% 2.50% 1,700 0 0 1,700 ND
64.50% 2.40% 51,024 0 0 51,024 OH
52.20% 4.80% 27,650 28,568 2,560 46,208 OK
66.90% 6.70% 15,075 0 0 15,075 OR
61.40% 3.50% 49,643 0 0 49,643 PA
58.80% 7.00% 3,294 0 0 3,294 RI
57.30% 3.40% 20,917 35,096 5,225 45,796 SC
58.70% 2.30% 3,528 0 2,611 6,139 SD
51.00% 3.70% 28,495 62,950 13,498 77,245 TN
51.10% 13.50% 157,361 388,101 111,412 486,110 TX
46.40% 6.70% 6,824 0 0 6,824 UT
64.60% 2.20% 0 0 0 0 VT
65.50% 6.90% 36,943 54,966 1,732 69,456 VA
64.40% 8.60% 17,345 94,112 9,880 79,928 WA
51.00% 0.90% 6,873 7,174 2,749 13,639 WV
68.30% 3.10% 22,097 46,212 20,010 67,986 WI

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