So, Trump won the Presidential election. The exact electoral vote count isn't certain, probably 301 unless he wins Arizona, the only state whose actually vote totals were close to a toss up and which is still too close to call, in which case it is 312. He also won the popular vote by about four point five percentage points (subject to modest adjustment when the complete results are final).
Harris will win Maine. Trump will win Alaska, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada.
The outcome of the election won't be contested (except perhaps with a renewed attempt to invoke Section 3 of the 14th Amendment). It wasn't that close.
The average anti-Trump bias in the national polling estimates and in the average swing state and lean state polls was about 4 percentage points, roughly the same as in 2016 and 2020. There was also a fair amount of ticket splitting with Democrats running for Governor (e.g. in NC) or U.S. Senate (e.g. in AZ) often outperforming Harris at the top of the ticket.
Trump did significantly better in many states than he did in 2020, despite the fact that he was a convicted felon, has other pending felony prosecutions, was found civilly liable for rape and for fraud, was four years older, showed more marked signs of dementia in his campaign, can't speak in complete sentences, has the vocabulary of a fifth grader, is a former porn star and is marrieds to a porn star in his third marriage, had no significant support from family and was denounced by many of his former inner circle, is easily triggered and baited, lost the only debate with his opponent, and employed more deplorable rhetoric and more blatant lies which were routinely pointed out publicly. No candidate has so openly pledged to defy the U.S. Constitution and U.S. law, to abandon democracy, to urge political violence and sedition, to embrace foreign dictators hostile to the U.S., to persecute his personal and political opponents, and to welcome racism, xenophobia, misogyny, and homophobia. The man is an incompetent but evil monster.
He also improved his winning margin despite the fact that the economy was remarkably strong, crime was near 55 year lows, teen pregnancy was near record lows, and we were not at war, and despite the fact that he cost at least 300,000 American lives as a result of his mishandling of the COVID pandemic.
The Republicans also gained a majority in the Senate (the exact partisan divide is not yet certain, it could be as many as 55-56 Republican Senators). Democrats lost the only Senate race forecast to be truly close, in Ohio, by several percentage points more than the polls had forecast. It is unlikely that Republicans will preserve the filibuster under Trump's leadership.
The U.S. Supreme Court has a conservative 6-3 vote majority, three of whom are ultra-conservative.
The races for the House are very close. If every race not called yet is resolved as it is trending as I write, the Democrats will have a one seat majority in the House, but it is too close to be sure at this point. If the Republicans maintain control of the House, their majority may be cut from four seats to one to three seats.
If the Republicans manage even a single vote majority in the House, there will be essentially no checks and balances on Trump of any kind. Trump is likely to be able to prevent the internal divisions that have plagued the GOP's thin majority in the House over the last two years.
All of this is despite the fact that Trump is far and away the worst candidate for President in all of U.S. history, and shouldn't have been constitutionally permitted to run for the office at all.
A majority of Americans are evil, stupid, or both. There is really no other explanation. Trump myriad flaws and shortcomings were screamed from the rooftops, but a majority of U.S. voters didn't care. Interviews with Trump supporters made clear that many or most of them were well aware of his shortcomings. Even while being elected President, Trump has a net nine percentage point unfavorable rating in polling (significantly worse than Harris).
There was a seventeen percentage point gender gap (men favored Trump, women favored Harris). There was twenty-nine percentage point gap between voters with college degrees and voters with no college (college educated voters favored Harris). The gap between men without college degrees and women with college degrees was forty-three percentage points. These gaps surged in Trump's three campaigns.
As usual, white Evangelical Christians strongly backed Trump for reasons that are inexplicable through logic, while non-whites and non-Christians backed Harris. Few candidates less exemplify christian virtues or even familiarity with Christian doctrines.
Basically no mainstream media outlet, other than Fox News, supported Trump.
It is a day to mourn. There is no reason to expect anything but the worst possible scenarios going forward.
As I noted before, there is real doubt over whether Trump will be able to complete his term. He is 78 years old. His dementia has advanced perceptibly during the current Presidential campaign. He is not a particularly healthy man, and is obviously quite obese. Time will tell. If he doesn't complete his term, J.D. Vance will become the acting President, and it isn't clear how he will act if he isn't in Trump's shadow.
There were other results at the state and local level, but those pale to the point of triviality compared to these results. One exception to that may be the abortion related ballot issues summarized below (the outcome of these ballot issues isn't available yet, however, in several of these states).
Much more trivially:
4 comments:
inflation
Often claimed, I'm highly skeptical that this is the true reason (although their true reason could be subconscious). Among other things, wages for hourly workers increased faster than inflation over the last four years and the inflation spike was two years old after which it got much lower. Dems weren't aggressive enough in pressing the point or making clear that several of Trumps policies are almost sure to lead to much more inflation. Biden was horrible to explaining himself and touting his accomplishments to the American people and Harris didn't have time to make up for this failure. Trump's pitch, especially on immigration, was emotive not significantly economic and about fear not reality (his strongest support is from people who live in places with very few immigrants, and likewise with virtually no "out" transgender individuals). Economics may be part of what is driving the "burn it all down" instinct that helps drive his support - nominally Christian middle aged white men with no college have been economically stagnant since the 1970s with women, non-whites, and college educated people have improved in relative terms compared to them. This stagnation and their high unemployment drives the trouble getting stable relationships and marriage, custody fights, child protective services issues, substance issues, etc. too. But they attribute the marriage issue to societal moral collapse rather than their own economic failings which is a big driver of the homophobia and trans panic and trad wife envy. And they attribute their economic failings to immigrants and international trade, rather than to automation, their weak ability to be respectful well-behaved social beings on the job, their resistance to getting more education or learning new skills, and post-WWII manufacturing capacity being restored abroad after a temporary deficit immediately post-WWII that fueled U.S. manufacturing export demand. The envy the pre-1970s mirage when their relative economic status was stronger since the economy needed them (and men like them such as their fathers) then and rewarded them well, but that was a temporary blip and not sustainable.
Also, they believe what Trump tells them, even if it isn't true and despite the fact that they know that he lies about facts all the time. To them, truthfulness is more about "authenticity" and a sense that their culture and rough edges tolerated nowhere else are legitimatized, than it is about actually telling the truth. Also, public opinion about people's truthfulness has a lot to do with not negotiating, whereas people who negotiate (including most politicians) are seen as untrustworthy and dishonest. Salesmen, politicians, and lawyers who negotiate daily, are seen as dishonest, while doctors and soldiers and law enforcement who rarely negotiate are perceived as honest and trustworthy (even though all three of those professions lie about facts much more often that salesmen, politicians, and lawyers).
Hi Folks, A comment I sent to a friend: Hi Mark, I was disappointed as well. The best explanations I have heard point to two major issues. 1. The government is too complex to run by democratic principles, it requires a professional management class to implement the policy directives coming out of Congress. Many people feel that these professional managers are making too many policy level decisions that should be left to Congress. That could be because the Democrat party to a large extent has decided that it's too difficult to get its major policies accepted by a majority of the population. This "democratic deficit" gives rise to a populist pressure that Trump has cleverly ridden. 2. Wokism and DEI are extremely unpopular. They represent a new approach to solving the black/white issue in the US, but the underlying assumptions have not won out in the arena of public discourse. Instead, the Cathedral (academia and the press) have broadly decided that the matter is too complex for the plebs to understand and also so obviously correct that anyone that is not on board is evil and stupid. Most folks react poorly to be considered evil and stupid. Call someone a Nazi too often and they'll conclude that being a Nazi must not be so bad. So, the behavior that you want to decrease instead increases due to the tactics used. (Note that this also applies to calling an ethnic group stupid criminals. Perception is reality.) The Woke folks mean well. The anti-Woke want the black/white issue improved or solved. (Though it may not be a top priority - possibly due to the assumption that American Blacks are living the life that most folks in the world can only dream of.) Not sure how to wrap up that argument but I think those two points are what lead us to where we are. In both cases the Democrat party could have kicked the legs out from under Trump's platform by being honest about their goals and tactics and showing some contrition for using non-democratic tactics. Cheers,
Guy
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