Making Enemies

One of the big problems facing the GOP is that it is making enemies fast. Furthermore, Trump relies almost entirely on fear and greed to hold onto power. When that works, it works. But the moment his threats prove hollow and his promises are no longer credible, many of his elite level supporters will turn on him in an instant and disavow him as quickly as he has disavowed a huge share of his minions.

Also, now that Trump has delivered on creating an ultra-conservative U.S. Supreme Court (both due to their abortion politics and for other reasons) and permanent tax cuts for the rich, many supporters who collectively held their noses to back him predominantly for those reasons, no longer need to support him.

* First and foremost, the Roman Catholic Church has started to seriously mobilize against their anti-immigration efforts. They have picked a fight with the largest religious denomination in the nation, led by a Pope who understands American politics at an intuitive level, which includes an important share of their base and of their elites. While White Evangelicals are realistically going to continue to be Trump and the GOP's do or die supporters, they need the political support of conservative white and Hispanic Catholics as well to secure majorities.

So far, the Catholic Church in the U.S. has only taken some baby steps to accommodate a heavily immigrant group of parishioners. But the Pope has an immense capacity to turn up the heat, and Trump has denied himself a key tool to fight that by having the IRS take the position that churches can endorse candidates in our elections from the pulpit.

What happens if Catholic justices on the U.S. Supreme Court, in Congress, and in the Trump Administration are denied communion, or even excommunicated? What happens if Pope Leo declares that Trump and his minions are servants of Satan?

The Papacy hasn't tried anything like that for centuries. But there are precedents for a Pope doing so. If Pope Leo sees Trump acting increasingly like Hitler towards a population that is mostly Catholic, the Pope has plenty of room to escalate and the institutional capacity to coordinate that effort in a way that few other movements in the U.S. can. 

Even if the Pope and his bishops and clergy do nothing more than throw shade at Trump, that's something that could flip a lot of swing voters (and not just Catholic ones).

* Southern voters burned by hurricanes, floods, tornados and other natural disasters and denied the federal disaster relief assistance that they've become accustomed to are another set of enemies who will burn hot to oppose Trump and weren't expected what they got, even if Trump campaigned on it. It isn't even just a matter of the economic substance of it. A big part of Trump's appeal in Red States was the perception that he cared more about people like them than the Democrats did. His indifference to their suffering during disasters undermines that perception.

* Veterans tend to vote conservative, but have received almost no respect, with Trump repeatedly disparaging them, and have seen programs for their benefit cut mercilessly. Some veterans will see this as breaking faith with them and dump him. Veterans disproportionately subscribe to a culture of honor, something utterly foreign to Trump.

* Farmers  and small business owners, especially in rural America and small towns, who have been badly hurt by Trump's trade policies, the deportation of their workforces, the imminent shutdown of their local hospitals, and deep cuts to their community schools are another set of potential enemies.

* Everyone involved in the healthcare industry has been alienated by Medicaid cuts, immense threatened pharmaceutical tariffs, indiscriminate cuts to medical research that weren't telegraphed on the campaign trail, and the utter insanity of RFK, Jr.'s pseudo-scientific approach to public health, even wealthy doctors who benefit from his tax cuts.

* The tax cuts Trump has provided to Wall Street and big business are meaningless if they are losing money, which his disastrous trade policy, threats to the independence of the Fed, and the damages he has done to the value of the dollar and the credit rating of the United States has done.

* Trump has flipped Elon Musk from being "co-President" to his enemy. The richest man in the world is a formidable foe, and is the leader of the coalition of tech billionaires that backed Trump. Musk's proposed "American Party" could also split the conservative vote and hand victory to Democrats in many races.

* Non-MAGA smart conservatives from federal judges, to think tank figures and professors, to older generation Republican leaders, to pundits, to military officers, are not keen on some of the directions Trump is taking, such as disregard for rule of law, civility and respect, and his anti-intellectualism, even if they like many of the changes he has made in substance.

* Federal employees are the source of every federal elected official's power. And, Trump has done everything he can to purge civil servants who won't be loyal to him and to cow those who are left with fear. But he's shed a lot of competent seasoned officials, made life very hard for those who are left, and betrayed the longstanding trust of almost every federal employee. So undermined, the federal government is going to be a lot less competent and effective, and federal employees will be looking for passive-aggressive ways to undermine him at every turn. no matter how hard he tries to assert control. And, a large percentage of federal employees who have abruptly seen their secure, high prestige futures shattered are now on a singular mission to use their insider knowledge and connections to fight him with all of their being.

* Educators from every school and higher educational institution in the country now see Trump and the GOP as their unequivocal enemies. While this was never an industry that strongly backed the GOP before, their long standing efforts to be neutral towards the GOP have been shattered now that the GOP has declared outright war on all of them. These institutions are strong not only in their own right, but also because they have a carefully cultivated and nurtured alumni base who will be willing to go to bat for them that includes many powerful, rich, and influential people.

DOD Abandons Cargo Seaplane Program

Aurora Flight Sciences tweaked its original Liberty Lifter design to move floats to its wingtips and adjust its tail to better accommodate its aft cargo door. (Aurora Flight Sciences)

The Defense Advanced Research Program Agency (DARPA) developed an inexpensive, long range, C-17 sized cargo seaplane, tentatively called the "Liberty Lifter" which could land even in rough seas and would allow airlifts to many places that large, long range cargo planes could otherwise not go, filling an important gap in U.S. military capabilities. But, despite the project's success, the program has been abandoned:

The nearly three-year-old Liberty Lifter program was intended to design and build — and possibly float and fly — a long-range, low-cost seaplane that could take off and land in rough seas. DARPA said in 2023 that it wanted the plane to have roughly the same size and capacity as a C-17 Globemaster, which can carry more than 170,000 pounds of cargo such as M1 Abrams tanks.

In a statement to Defense News, DARPA confirmed it had concluded the Liberty Lifter program in June. Aviation Week first reported the ending of the Liberty Lifter program.

“We’ve learned we can build a flying boat capable of takeoff and landing in high sea states,” program manager Christopher Kent said. “The physics make sense. And we’ve learned we can do so with maritime building techniques and maritime composites.” But DARPA said it will not move forward with building an aircraft, which would only be a demonstrator.

“We think our findings validate the hypothesis we had going in: you can build platforms that fly significantly cheaper and at significantly more locations than we do today,” Kent said. “This opens up a pathway for next generation aircraft to be built using far more efficient construction technologies.” DARPA also said more work needs to be done to blend maritime construction with aircraft certification. . . . 

“Through the Liberty Lifter program, we were able to show the viability of the design and the feasibility of novel manufacturing techniques,” Aurora said. . . . 

DARPA hoped creating a cargo seaplane could lead to new opportunities for the military and commercial organizations to conduct fast logistics missions, as well as develop innovative manufacturing techniques and materials to bring down the cost of building large aircraft. . . . . Aurora and DARPA used simulations and tests of scaled models to demonstrate the seaplane’s technical design, as well as building and stress-testing examples of the new methods and materials intended for the plane. . . . DARPA confirmed it spent about $98 million in all on Liberty Lifter.

Midweek Rants And Observations

* It was 101º F today in Denver. Fortunately, we have a brand new swamp cooler, so this is survivable. I'm honestly a little surprised that our power stayed on. We've had two power outs for more than an hour each on hot afternoons in the last few weeks.

* My office suite is having a potluck next week. There was a sign up sheet for names and what you are bringing. A majority of people who signed up said they were bringing "TBD". Suck it up my office neighbors. Commit to something.

* Why does it take the City of Denver weeks for a deed that is recorded and digitally processed by the Clerk & Recorder's office weeks to be reflected in the Assessor's Office records?

* A recent new report stated:

Church stands by call to execute gay people: “I will not apologize for preaching the Word of God.”: A men's night sermon said gay people should "blow yourself in the back of the head."

Just what I would expect a Baptist church in Indiana to say. The most vile people in America are Christians.

"Not all Christians are this bad" you say? Then why aren't they picketing outside the steps of this church for heresy and blasphemy? It isn't my place to do that. Not my monkeys, not my circus. But it is hard to take any Christians seriously when this isn't the instant and vigorous response of Christians who say they're wrong.

* There is a tornado warning in Washington D.C. right now. WTF?

* There are too many crazy people in this country, and not just in the White House.

A group that calls itself an anti-government militia told News 9 it’s “absolutely” targeting Oklahoma weather radars, claiming they control the weather. The warning comes just days after a vandal knocked out News 9’s live radar.

* I don't doubt for a minute that the allegations of this complaint, which was later dismissed (not on the merits), were true:

* The people who leave anti-immigration comments on social media posts and news story (and there are lots of them) are among the most vile people you'll see on the Internet. These people would have been pro-Holocaust, pro-segregation, pro-slavery, and pro-witch burning.

It is a reminder that the evil that is Donald Trump runs deep. There are there millions, if not tens of millions of these monsters in the United States.

Stupid hurts people. But this level of vile goes far beyond that. They are as bad as the most culpable violent criminals in our prisons. Where do these people come from? What can we do about them?

* It just doesn't stop.

* Anti-aging, life extension drugs are a real possibility, if not in my lifetime, in the lives of my children.

A simple monthly injection allows mice to live 25% longer and free from diseases: The strategy — the injection of a simple antibody — has already begun to be tested in humans in an attempt to cure age-related illnesses.

* The Texas floods have are already the fourth most deadly floods in Texas history. There are still 161 people missing, so they could easily rise to #2, and floods in San Antonio are ongoing.

 

Most of these deaths were preventable. The part of Texas hit has consistently had the highest concentration of flood deaths in the United States since the 1930s. State and local officials rejected a proposal in 2017, in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, to install flood detection devices and warning sirens but weren't willing to spend the money to do so. Trump's cuts to NOAA and the National Weather Service impaired the warning that people at risk in the flood received. Trump gutted FEMA which only started to take action to help 72 hours after the floods when it was already too late (the U.S. Coast Guard, in fairness, stepped in anyway and saved about 165 lives at the insistence of a brave rookie over the indifference and waffling of his supervisors). The Texas Governor and its top emergency response official have urged Trump to cut or eliminate FEMA.

* Gun homicides are down, but gun suicides have reached a record high.

The CDC reports 27,300 gun suicides in 2023, constituting 58% of all gun deaths, a record high. Wyoming led the nation with about 19.9 gun suicide deaths per 100,000 residents — nearly 10 times the rate of Massachusetts, which had the lowest at about 2.1 per 100,000.

Gun homicides fell for the second year in a row, dropping from 20,958 in 2021 to 19,651 in 2022 and 17,927 in 2023. Despite the decline, the 2023 total ranks as the fifth highest on record for gun homicides.