Geopolitical Alliances As Of 2022

Map prepared by Andrew Oh-Willeke with this web tool.

Piracy incidents in 2021 per the ICC-CCS.

The first map was prepared from a starting point of analyzing the missions that it does and does not make sense for the U.S. military to prepare for, and of the allies who could be relied upon to be part of coalitions in connection with those missions.

It also relates to the observation that many of the nations with the most powerful naval forces also have nuclear arms, which is a fact that would profoundly influence the character of naval warfare between these countries.

The second map shows global piracy hotspots, with the Gulf of Guinea near West Africa as the primary one, island Southeast Asia the second area of concern, and a mix of other places with less systemic issues.

Will This Strip Of Land Lead To A NATO War With Russia?

Politico named the most dangerous place on earth right now.

The "Suwałki Gap" from Belarus to Kaliningrad, where the border of Poland and Lithuania now passes is the most dangerous place because of the threat of a direct conflict between Russia and NATO.

From here.

The war in Ukraine has probably decreased the threat posed by this potential trigger of a war with NATO.

A Russia-NATO war (or nuclear conflict of some kind) is more likely to be triggered by Russian frustration with military and intelligence aid provide to Ukraine in the war there, in my humble opinion.

Still, this is definitely a significant and under appreciated potential flash point between Russia and NATO.

On the other hand, this also represents a diplomatic opportunity. 

If Poland and/or Lithuania were to offer Russia a tiny strip of land providing access between Kaliningrad and Belarus in a NATO brokered deal, despite the fact that the war in Ukraine has gone badly for Russia, this could allow Russia to save face and would make it harder for Russia to demonize NATO.

This could be done in connection with a global deal that also resolved the remaining conflict in Ukraine, or could be a side agreement, muddying the waters of the Russia-NATO relationship.

On the other hand, outside a global agreement, this could look like appeasement and encourage further Russian military aggression.

U.S. Household Income v. Children Per Woman Per Lifetime (TFR)

From here.

Women from households with low income and very high incomes have the most children per lifetime, while middle and upper middle income women have the fewest children per lifetime.

In pre-modern history, everyone had more kids, but everyone had lots of children who died young.

Affluent women have fewer children, to a significant extent, because they postpone marriage and child bearing to gain more higher education and to establish professional careers after doing so. Women who don't pursue as much higher education or as high end careers don't wait as long (and often have children first, and marry second, if they marry at all).

Women on track to be highly educated, professional women with highly economically successful careers pay a very high economic prices for doing so that extends long after they return to the work force. In contrast, women whose market economic activity involves jobs that require little education pay a quite low and rarely extends a long time after they return to the work force.

Affluent women have children at a much greater age, on average, something that fertility treatments help to facilitate. The "trophy wife" phenomena of affluent men marrying much younger women (sometimes in second marriages) is also a factor.

Only women with household incomes of less than $25,000 a year and more than $1,000,000 a year have children at or in excess of the replacement rate of 2.1. Women in households with incomes of less than $25,000 a year are in less than the bottom 10% of income. Women in households with incomes of $1,000,000 a year are in the top less than 1% of income. About 95% of women have household incomes associated with a less than a 2.1 replacement rate TFR.

Lower income women having more children are much more numerous than higher income women having more children, as illustrated by this graph:

Race is also factor in TFR although not a huge one (a factor somewhat diluted by the chart below which lumps all non-white categories together). 

Religion would be a better distinguishing factor (with Mormons, Hispanic Catholics, and Evangelical Christians having higher TFRs), but isn't present from this source because the American Community Survey (a research project of the Census Bureau in the U.S. Commerce Department) doesn't ask about religion to avoid church v. state issues, so the relationship has to be inferred from other data.

The TFR of lower income women has fallen considerably in recent years, while the TFR of women in high income households has grown in the same time period.

But, the small magnitude of the impact of household income on TFR is also notable. There is a variance of less than 0.5 children per lifetime in TFR in the entire household income range of $50,000 per year to $499,999 per year. The TFR of households with incomes of $1,000,000 per year or more is a mere 2.4 or so and the lowest income women have a TFR of only a little more than 2.1. The magnitude of the income effect on TFR is even smaller for white women.

Economic success is negatively correlated with reproductive fitness up to $199,999 per year of household income. Economic success is far less than linearly correlated with reproductive fitness at household incomes of $200,000 per year and more. 

Even billionaires don't have that many kids per lifetime, in stark contrast to per modern times, and this isn't just due to men having a small number of mates. Women in high income households also don't have nearly as many children as they could without any economic strain.

This chart also suggest the possibility that higher TFR in rural than in urban areas may be related to lower income in rural than in urban areas.

It also demonstrates that eugenics is not a very powerful ideology in U.S. politics.

Quote Of The Day

We are none of us one thing alone and unchanging. We are not static, or at rest. Just as a city or a prince's court or a lineage is many people in one, so is a person many people within one, always unfinished and always like a river's current flowing onward ever changing towards the ocean that is greater than all things combined. You cannot step into the same river twice.

- Kate Elliott, "Cold Magic" (2010).

Life Isn't Fair

Economic fitness corresponds to fitness in other domains as well. People who are successful tend to be well off across the board, even though we'd like to think that there was some kind of karmic balancing between people's lots in life. 

[E]xceptionally successful careers were not associated with medical frailty, psychological maladjustment, and compromised interpersonal and family relationships; if anything, overall, people with exceptionally successful careers were medically and psychologically better off.

- From  Harrison J. Kell, et al., "Wrecked by Success? Not to Worry." Perspectives On Psychological Science (June 10, 2022).

https://doi.org/10.1177/17456916211055637

The paper's full abstract states:

We examined the wrecked-by-success hypothesis. Initially formalized by Sigmund Freud, this hypothesis has become pervasive throughout the humanities, popular press, and modern scientific literature. The hypothesis implies that truly outstanding occupational success often exacts a heavy toll on psychological, interpersonal, and physical well-being. Study 1 tested this hypothesis in three cohorts of 1,826 high-potential, intellectually gifted individuals. Participants with exceptionally successful careers were compared with those of their gender-equivalent intellectual peers with more typical careers on well-known measures of psychological well-being, flourishing, core self-evaluations, and medical maladies. Family relationships, comfort with aging, and life satisfaction were also assessed. Across all three cohorts, those deemed occupationally outstanding individuals were similar to or healthier than their intellectual peers across these metrics. Study 2 served as a constructive replication of Study 1 but used a different high-potential sample: 496 elite science/technology/engineering/mathematics (STEM) doctoral students identified in 1992 and longitudinally tracked for 25 years. Study 2 replicated the findings from Study 1 in all important respects. Both studies found that exceptionally successful careers were not associated with medical frailty, psychological maladjustment, and compromised interpersonal and family relationships; if anything, overall, people with exceptionally successful careers were medically and psychologically better off.

Where Do People Use Top Sheets and Why?

Where do people use top sheets?

In the British Isles (i.e. Scotland, Ireland, Wales and England, plus some small islands in the vicinity) people don't use top sheets. They put a fitted sheet on a bed and a duvet with a duvet cover which is washed from time to time. This practice is pretty much universal in the British Isles from the cheapest hostel or AirBnB, to the most deluxe four star hotel, and pretty much everything in between.

This is also the predominant practice in some of Northern Europe (including all or most of Scandinavia) although I don't have detailed geographic boundaries for this practice worldwide.

In the U.S. and Australia, in contrast, people put a fitted sheet on a bed, then a matching top sheet, and then on top of the top sheet, a bedcover, a quilt, or a comforters (a.k.a. duvet) usually without a duvet cover.

If I recall correctly, they also use top sheets in New Zealand, even though parts of its are cooler than the U.S. and Australia in the summer, probably mostly out of cultural influences from the U.S. and Australia.

Why does this happen?

The key point is that summers in the British Isles and much of Northern Europe aren't very hot. The average high in July in London, near the southern end of the geographic range of this practice, is 72º F.

There is no place in Australia that is that cool in the summer (a season it experiences when it is winter in the Northern hemisphere).

There is only one major American city that is that cool in July: Anchorage, Alaska, where the average high in July is 65º F (although San Francisco has the same average high temperature in July at London, as does Vancouver, British Columbia in Canada).

Basically every major city in the continental U.S. (even in Maine and Washington State) and Hawaii and in other U.S. territories is warmer than London in July, although a few high elevation mountain towns are an exception.

In places that are warmer than London in the summer, it is frequently too hot at night for a duvet or comforter to make sense, especially if one is trying to be thrifting by not using excessive air conditioning only to warm yourself against the air conditioning with insulation at night. 

In middle latitudes of the U.S. interior in places like Denver and Cincinnati, it is frequently too hot for a comforter from sometime in May until sometime in September. Further south, the comforter season is even shorter. Further north, it is a little longer.

On the the other hand, even if it is too warm for a comforter, people in the U.S. and Australia often still like to have something over them while they sleep, both for modesty and to keep out the occasional flies, gnats and mosquitos that manages to make it into the house. Some people find that having something on top of them while they are in bed also helps them to sleep.

Often, to keep the bed pretty when it is made and not being used, people in the U.S. or Australia will also add a pretty bed cover such as quilt or thin, not very warm blanket. But, the top sheet is necessary to avoid having to clean the quilt or blanket (or in colder months the uncovered comforter or duvet) in the laundry on a regular basis because it prevents the harder to clean fabric from being exposed to sweat and smells. 

The duvet cover fills that role in cooler climates, and since it is very rarely too warm to use a duvet at night in the places where this is the common practice, they is no need to have top sheets as a substitute for duvet covers when it is warmer.

Russian Military Losses Updated

After noting the extent to which the U.S. is providing multiple rocket launchers and howitzers to Ukraine, a Washington Post story notes Russian military losses. The losses are very significant, but haven't been nearly as dramatic in recent weeks as they were at first.

Russian losses of soldiers and equipment have been staggering. The Pentagon estimates that the Russians have lost 2,600 armored vehicles, or about 30 percent of their inventory. That includes about 1,000 tanks and 1,600 armored personnel carriers. The Russians have also fired nearly 70 percent of their precision-guided munitions, and because of Western sanctions, Moscow may be unable to resupply those critical munitions.

From the Washington Post.

Colorado Republicans Weak Going Into Midterms Elections

Polling by the Global Strategy Group of registered voters in Colorado puts Colorado's incumbent Democrats, Governor Polis and U.S. Senator Michael Bennet safely ahead of the Republican front runners in this race going into the primary which will be completed on June 28, 2022:

In the Gov race: Polis currently leads Ganahl 54/37 (+17) Polis currently leads Lopes 53/39 (+14)

In the Senate race: Bennet currently leads Hanks 50/37 (+13) Bennet currently leads O'Dea 49/36 (+13)

The leading GOP candidates in the Colorado Secretary of State race, facing Democratic incumbent Jena Griswold, are Republican front runner Tina Peters, the Mesa County Clerk and Recorder who has been indicted for election law violations and was prevented by a court from administering the most recent elections in the county, and Republican underdog Pam Anderson, who does not agree that the 2020 Presidential election was compromised by massive fraud.

Given the likelihood that Tina Peters will win the primary race, and the partisan leanings in the top of the ticket state races, Jena Griswold's changes look pretty good too.

The Republicans have nothing special going on in the Colorado Attorney General or Colorado State Treasurer races either.

There are also lots of GOP primaries at the Congressional District level. 

Incumbent Lauren Boebert faces stiff competition in CO-3 primary from Don Coram, and some strong competition in the general election from Sol Sandoval as well. She is a weak candidate in a Republican leaning district that nonetheless isn't the most red district in the state by any means.

The incumbents in CO-4 and CO-5 have primary challengers, which they may overcome, in otherwise safe districts.

There is a three way GOP race in Democratic leaning CO-7 where strongly right leaning candidates are again favored in the primary. Any Republican opposition in safe Democratic seats in CO-1 and CO-2 isn't worth mentioning.

Finally, there is a GOP free for all in the newly created and highly competitive CO-8. While there are four candidates on the GOP primary ballot in CO-8, however, according to Colorado Pols:

the race for the Republican nomination in CO-08 is essentially now a two-candidate battle between Weld County Commissioner Lori Saine and State Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer. Thornton Mayor Jan Kulmann continues to generate little interest, and not a lot of people have ever heard of a “Tyler Allcorn.”

The two candidates running strongest in the GOP primary in CO-8 are both right leaning within the field of four Republicans running, which is not the best way to win over swing voters in a close race.

A Gun Control Deal In Congress

Sources including Politico report that 10 Republican Senators have joined Democrats to back gun control measures which would create a filibuster proof majority in support of the bill, possibly within the week.

The bipartisan framework would change the background check system to increase scrutiny of juvenile records for gun buyers under the age of 21 and closes the “boyfriend loophole” by broadening restrictions for individuals who have abused their romantic partners. In addition, it includes grants for states to implement so-called red flag laws, as well as new spending for mental health and school security.

These are incremental baby steps, but it would still enact the first new national gun control measures passed in a long time, at a time when almost all significant non-fiscal legislation has been held up by partisan gridlock made possible by the filibuster.  

Selected Good Government Reforms For Colorado

I Voted.

Today, I cast my Denver primary ballot (by mail). 

There are only two contested races. There was a very marginal challenge to our incumbent Democratic Congresswoman of many years, in which I supported incumbent Diana DeGette, and there was a race between two candidates for CU-Regent for our Congressional Democrat, in which I voted for Johnnie Nguyen, a former employee of mine (he worked for me only briefly, but he's a good guy, even though is opponent is also a good person).

Selected State and Local Good Government Reforms

This makes it as good as time as any for my periodic call for select good government reforms to Colorado's electoral system.

One reform that I strongly favor is reducing the number of elected offices and shortening the ballot, in order to reduce the informational burden on voters and the risk of bad decision making in low profile elections about which there is little information and about which partisan politics should play a smaller role.

Fewer Ordinary Elected Officials

State Offices

If I had my way, all of the following state offices, which are now elected offices, would be appointed offices:

1. Colorado Secretary of State (this would be a civil service appointment)

2. Colorado State Treasurer (this would be a civil service appointment)

3. Colorado Attorney General (this would be a political appointment of the Governor not subject to legislative approval) (if any of these offices were to remain elected, this would probably be the best one to retain as an elected post as it creates a de facto independent prosecutor, but an attorney general who structurally owes full loyalty to the Governor as an employee at will, when the Governor is already the AG's chief client representative in an attorney-client relationship with the state anyway, and AG is still a hard post for voters to evaluate well).

4. Colorado State School Board (a state board appointed by the state officials with a say in funding the system would be better)

5. University of Colorado Regents (a state board appointed by the state officials with a say in funding the system would be better)

This would leave a Governor-Lieutenant Governor ticket, the State Senate, and the State House as the only statewide elected offices. Vacancies in these offices would be filled in the same manner that they are now.

As is the case now, state house elections would be held every two years, state senators would be elected to four year terms half every two years, and the Governor-Lieutenant Governor ticket election would be held in midterm years.

Local Offices

If I had my way, all of the following local offices, which are now elected offices, would be appointed offices:

1. County Coroner (this office, in addition to being a civil service appointment, rather than elected, should be transferred from county government to state government since small counties don't have the resources to have an adequate coroner's office).

2. County Clerk and Recorder (it would be a civil service position)

3. County Treasurer (it would be a civil service position)

4. County Assessor (it would be a civil service position)

5. County Surveyor (it would be a civil service position)

6. County Sheriff (it would be a political appointment of the county elected officials) (if any of these offices were to remain elected, this would probably be the best one to retain as an elected post since it is not merely ministerial and citizens are fairly well informed about it, but the virtues of having elected officials who can fire a bad sheriff quickly outweigh the benefits of giving citizens an independent say in an election to this post).

I would also make the board of county commissioner have five members elected on a non-partisan basis from single member equal population districts elected to four year terms in midterm elections, rather than three elected at large (typically to four year terms with two in off years and one in on years), since three member parties elected at large aren't that democratic, in all counties that are not city and county governments and don't have such small populations that districts don't make sense. A five member board limits the harm that can be done by any one bad board member.

This would leave county commissioners and district attorneys as the only local county or judicial district elected offices, and district attorneys as the only partisan local government officials.

I would retain non-partisan Regional Transportation District elections, city council elections, mayoral elections, and city auditor elections.

Elected special district offices other than local school boards (discussed below) would be reviewed on a case by case basis. There aren't many such offices now, but I think that I have omitted a few, and I'm not familiar with all of them. Special district elections would be held in midterm general elections (without primaries) and would be non-partisan. 

Municipal elections would be held at a time separate from the general and midterm elections (as they are in Denver) and would be non-partisan, so that public attention would not be distracted from them.

Vacancies in these offices would be filled in the same manner that they are now.

Local School Boards

I would replace public school boards elected by the general public with school boards elected by the parents or guardians of students on a one student, one vote basis. The have better access to information, more reason to pay attention, and ultimately the schools impact their children more than anyone else. Local school board elections have historically been low information races which makes for bad decision making by voters.

All property tax funding of local school boards would end, and public Pre-K through 12 education would be entirely state funded. As a result of funding being handled by the state, voter participation in tax levies and debt offerings by school boards would end as well

Direct Democracy

I would end the requirement for public votes to retain revenues earned under existing tax laws under TABOR. TABOR refunds of excess revenues would be replaced with rainy day fund contributions for the taxing entity.

In general, I would retain citizen legislative initiatives on the basis that they are allowed now. But, I would end the ability of initiatives (as opposed to referendums referred by elected officials) to impose new taxes, limit taxing authority, authorize new spending, or limit the authority of elected officials to spend, although initiatives could de facto cause governments to incur de minimus new spending to administer a basically non-fiscal measure.

I would end ability to petition to put newly passed legislation up for vote as a ballot issue if the body passing it did not refer it to the voters in the first place.

I would retain the ability to have citizen proposed constitutional amendments or local charter amendments, although they would be harder to pass than legislative initiatives as they are under the status quo. 

But, I would transfer a significant share of matters set forth in the state constitution to statutes, and a significant share of matters set forth in most municipal charters to municipal ordinances, to reduce the scope of matters that amend the state constitution and municipal charts requiring voter approval, so that voters don't have to vote on administrative and "house keeping" charter amendments and constitutional amendments any more than absolutely necessary.

Citizen approved initiatives would require supermajority legislation to modify for the first four years (reducing the incentive to propose constitutional or charter amendments merely to protect them from immediately legislative modification). 

End Recall Elections

I would end recall elections in all non-municipal posts. 

This is something that is made more desirable and workable by the fact that the only non-legislative, multimember board elected officials above the municipal level would be the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and District Attorneys. All twenty-five of these officials could be impeached by the state legislature. 

District attorneys could also be removed from office by attorney regulation officials of the Colorado Supreme Court if a DA's license to practice law was suspended or a DA was disbarred for ethics violations. But giving elected DAs who have acted ethically slightly more insulation from public opinion when enforcing the laws is a good thing.

Elections happen often enough for legislative body officials, usually every two year or four years, to make them unnecessary in such bodies (as opposed to situations when there is an elected executive branch official accountable to no one). 

The Colorado House and Colorado Senate, respectively, can also expel members by supermajority vote for misconduct.  

Recalls for municipal and special district offices would be governed by municipal charters or state law, but not by the state constitution. I would be inclined to allow recalls of these officials under the relevant default state laws, as these recalls are much more manageable and less burdensome on the overall electorate, and the risk of a bad slate of officials in a very small municipality or special district is much greater in practice.

Judicial Retention And Removal.

I would end judicial retention elections, which voters routinely complain that they are not qualified to vote in for lack of adequate information, which remove very few judges (on the order of 1% or less). Usually judges can be removed in cases that lead to non-retention by other means anyway.

Retention elections could be triggered for any judge, by the state legislature, with a simple majority of both houses in the Colorado General Assembly required by not approval by the Governor, and in the case of a trial court judge, a majority vote of county legislative bodies with a majority by population in the district served would also be required. These triggers, if met, would simply put a retain or not retain issue on the ballot for a judge which voters would weigh in upon, and could only be done at the time when retention elections are held now. 

Recall petitions would not be allowed for judges, although state level impeachment would still be an option. I would also strengthen judicial ethics oversight body powers, and would allow this body (subject to appeal to the Colorado Supreme Court), or a 5 out of 7 judge supermajority of Colorado Supreme Court of its own initiative, to remove any lower court judges. Judges could also be removed by impeachment.

I would require all judges to be attorneys, but would grant the four remaining sitting county court judges who are not lawyers admission to the bar by special legislation. It could be that some of them have already retired.

Municipal Courts And Local Ordinance Authority

I would abolish municipal courts, vesting all jurisdiction that they had in county courts. Municipalities hire and fire their own judges to not give rise to sufficient judicial independence. Municipal parking violation bureaus which are not currently handled by municipal courts anyway, could continue, subject to county court review.

I would also end the authority of municipalities and local governments to create ordinances punishable by incarceration, something that would then only be possible for violations of state laws, although a few state laws might need to be added to the state criminal code to address offenses now covered primarily by municipal ordinances where incarceration is really appropriate.

Fines for violations of traffic laws would be payable primarily to the state government, with only a small amount of such fines remitted to local government in amount only sufficient to cover all or most of the actual costs of traffic law enforcement.

Election Administration Details

Overall, the way Colorado elections are run is a national model, but I would make some modest changes.

I would have postage prepaid for all mail in ballots.

I would discontinue the process of putting uncontested races on ballots, allowing voters to focus more easily on what they really had to decide.

I would create a create a government office in every county charged with maximizing voter registration. 

Prison inmates should be counted for redistricting purposes as residents of the place they were before being incarcerated, not where the prison is located.

Redistricting would be limited to Congress, State Senate (but see my proposal below), State House, and County Commissioner posts (excluding municipal and special district offices), which isn't that much different from the status quo.

In all single member district elections (federal, state and local), I would require a majority of the votes validly cast for a candidate to win, with a runoff of the top two candidates if no candidate received a majority.

Ballots would be much shorter, and would be limited to higher information races (in most cases, with partisan label cues that are sufficient for most voters to make a choice by themselves). This would probably increase voter turnout, would increase voter participation in races on the ballot as opposed to leaving them blank, and would reduce vote counting disputes and voter error.

In Presidential election year general elections, in addition to the Presidential race there would be one to two federal offices, and one or two state legislative offices for a total of three to five candidate races (only some of which would be close) following up to five partisan primary election races. 

In midterm election year general elections, there would be one to two federal offices, the Governor's race, the DAs race, one non-partisan county commissioner's district race (outside consolidated cities and counties),  and possibly one non-partisan special district race, for a total of three to five candidate races (only some of which would be close) following up to four partisan primary races. 

There would also be in even year general elections citizen initiatives (state legislative and constitutional amendments and county legislative initiatives) and referred measures (constitutional or tax or debt related), all of which tend to increase public interests. 

Municipal ballot issues (legislative initiatives, and tax and debt referred measures, and initiated and referred charter amendments) would be on the ballot at the time of municipal elections (perhaps in odd year general election times). Other ballot issues would appear on the ballot only at general elections every two years.

Party List State Senate Representation Considered

Personally, I'd like to replace single member district state senate elections with a proportional representation, party-list based election for the entire state senate at once every four years in an off year  election (ending that opportunity for gerrymandering and making third-parties much more viable since they'd need only about 3% of the vote to get at least one seat). It would also shorten the Presidential election year ballot and create more interest in otherwise duller midterm elections.

But that might be too bold relative to the other innocuous good government reforms already suggested.

How Are U.S. Senate Vacancies Filled?

This is useful background information for future reference.

 

Among the 46 states that do give their governors authority to name replacement senators, 11 limit their field of choice in some way. 

Seven states – Hawaii, Kentucky, Maryland, Montana, North Carolina, West Virginia and Wyoming – make the governor choose from a list of nominees submitted by the previous senator’s party. (Kentucky joined that group last year, at the urging of Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell, age 80; perhaps coincidentally, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is a Democrat.) 

Utah requires the governor to choose from a list of candidates compiled by the legislature, all of whom must be of the same party as the previous senator. 

Arizona and Oklahoma simply require the governor to choose someone from the previous senator’s party.

Connecticut has the most restrictive rules: The governor can fill a Senate vacancy only if there’s a year or less remaining in the term, and his or her choice must be approved by a two-thirds vote in each house of the state legislature.

The 17th Amendment also gives states considerable leeway in deciding how long temporary senators can serve until a special election. In 30 states, special Senate elections must be held concurrently with regular general elections. In some cases, those special elections coincide with the next scheduled general election, but in other cases – especially if the vacancy occurs late in the election cycle – they coincide with the general election after the next one.

Five states have specific timetables for holding special Senate elections, usually a certain number of days following the occurrence of the vacancy. Thirteen states authorize either a separate date for the special election or hold it concurrently with the next general election, depending on when the vacancy occurs. And two states have few or no rules on when a special election must be held, effectively leaving the decision up to the governor.

From Pew. 

Rail Gauges

Rail gauges present another set of differing national standards that are really little more than historical accidents. Also, this is relevant to the difficulties faced by Ukraine in trying to export farm goods by rail.

World Rail Gauges (from here).

Prior to 1886, the South and the North in the U.S. had different rail gauges, but there is now a standard 1435 mm standard, which is the same as the "standard gauge" in Europe.

The vast majority of North American railroads are standard gauge (4 ft 8+1⁄2 in / 1,435 mm). Exceptions include some streetcar, subway and rapid transit systems, mining and tunneling operations, and some narrow-gauge lines particularly in the west, e.g. the isolated White Pass and Yukon Route system, and the former Newfoundland Railway. . . . 

In 1886, the southern railroads agreed to coordinate changing gauge on all their tracks. After considerable debate and planning, most of the southern rail network was converted from 5 ft (1,524 mm) gauge to 4 ft 9 in (1,448 mm) gauge, then the standard of the Pennsylvania Railroad, over two days beginning on May 31, 1886. Over a period of 36 hours, tens of thousands of workers pulled the spikes from the west rail of all the broad-gauge lines in the South, moved them 3 in (76 mm) east and spiked them back in place. The new gauge was close enough that standard gauge equipment could run on it without problem. By June 1886, all major railroads in North America were using approximately the same gauge. The final conversion to true standard gauge took place gradually as track was maintained. Now, the only broad-gauge rail systems in the United States are isolated rapid transit, light rail, and streetcar systems as well as some heritage railways and hill railways.

Quoted material from Wikipedia. 

More Surface Warships Still Don't Make Sense

More destroyers is not the right response to concerns about China invading Taiwan or seizing control of the Western Pacific. 

Anti-ship weapons delivered from ground based batteries, aircraft, submarines, and ad hoc (basically disposable) freighters converted into arsenal ships all make more sense as ways to address this threat.

An Arleigh Burke–class guided-missile destroyer costs approximately $2 billion to build, not including its weapons or operating costs. It could be damaged, disabled, or sunk by a range of Chinese antiship cruise missiles or ballistic missiles. Conversely, a Chinese Type 52 or Type 55 destroyer could be disabled or sunk by a U.S. Long-Range Antiship Missile (LRASM) or a Naval Strike Missile costing approximately $2 million. The math for mines and torpedoes is of the same order of magnitude. While delivering these weapons requires costly assets, surface vessels are among the most cost-ineffective options.

Air power’s primary benefit is being able to deliver large quantities of weapons over extended time periods. For example, B-1 Lancers can deliver 24 LRASMs at a time. Even assuming a low sortie rate, a single B-1 could quickly surpass a warship’s offensive firepower. The addition of other aircraft, such as other bombers, P-8 Poseidons, and tactical aircraft if in range, would allow air power to deliver punishing blows against an adversary. . . .

The United States should do everything in its power, including subsidies or other methods if politically and diplomatically acceptable, to encourage Taiwan and other allies to purchase large numbers of antiship weapons. . . .

the Navy should invest in ways to cheaply increase the missile capacity of sea-based assets. Practically, this means exploring the potential to rapidly purchase and convert merchant ships, particularly from the Maritime Security Program, into missile carriers.

From here.

Economic Returns For Graduate Degrees

This is what should be the case if the system is working properly. Query if sorting effects are properly controlled for, however.

Most graduate degrees have positive returns for wages (though not humanities for men); returns are similar except higher for law & medicine (& nursing for men)

From here citing this paper whose abstract states:

This paper uses a college-by-graduate degree fixed effects estimator to evaluate the returns to 19 different graduate degrees for men and women. We find substantial variation across degrees, and evidence that OLS overestimates the returns to degrees with high average earnings and underestimates the returns to degrees with low average earnings. 

Second, we decompose the impacts on earnings into effects on wage rates and effects on hours. For most degrees, the earnings gains come from increased wage rates, though hours play an important role in some degrees, such as medicine, especially for women. 

Third, we estimate the net present value and internal rate of return for each degree, which account for the time and monetary costs of degrees. We show annual earnings and hours worked while enrolled in graduate school vary a lot by gender and degree. 

Finally, we provide descriptive evidence that gains in overall job satisfaction and satisfaction with contribution to society vary substantially across degrees.

The Socio-Economic Class Consequences Of U.S. Civil Service Meritocracy

A study of the socio-economic class impacts of the establishment of the civil service system in the U.S. federal government (which must have involved an immense amount of work to conduct), produces results that are largely unsurprising. There were fewer lower class civil servants. There were more "educated outsiders" (e.g. Jews). There were more middle class civil servants.

In my view, the increased elitism that arose from the civil service system is a feature and not a flaw of meritocracy, because it causes government to perform better, on average. Government employment is not simply a patronage and social welfare tool. How well it does its job matters a lot.

The paper and its abstract are as follows:

Does screening applicants using exams help or hurt the chances of lower-SES candidates? 

Because individuals from lower socioeconomic backgrounds fare, on average, worse than those from richer backgrounds in standardized tests, a common concern with this "meritocratic" approach is that it might have a negative impact on the opportunities of lower-SES individuals. 

However, an alternative view is that, even if such applicants underperformed on exams, other (potentially more discretionary and less impersonal) selection criteria might put them at an even worse disadvantage. 

We investigate this question using evidence from the 1883 Pendleton Act, a landmark reform in American history which introduced competitive exams to select certain federal employees. Using newly assembled data on the socioeconomic backgrounds of government employees and a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that, although the reform increased the representation of "educated outsiders" (individuals with high education but limited connections), it reduced the share of lower-SES individuals. This decline was driven by a higher representation of the middle class, with little change in the representation of upper-class applicants. 

The drop in the representation of lower-SES workers was stronger among applicants from states with more unequal access to schooling as well as in offices that relied more heavily on connections prior to the reform. 

These findings suggest that, although using exams could help select more qualified candidates, these improvements can come with the cost of increased elitism.

Diana Moreira & Santiago Pérez, "Who Benefits from Meritocracy?" NBER Working Paper 30113 (June 2022) DOI 10.3386/w30113.

Did The Wars U.S. Veterans Fought Make Us Free?

 

The commonplace pablum in this meme is widely accepted uncritically (apart from its obvious poetic disregard for the laws of physics). But, of course, it isn't completely, or even mostly, true.

U.S. soldiers died to protect the freedom of the South Koreans. They died, futilely, to protect the freedom of the South Vietnamese. They fought wars and sometimes died in Somalia, in Kosovo, in Iraq, in the Persian Gulf, in Afghanistan, in Syria and in World War I in Europe, to make the world a better place in ways that our leaders had deemed worthy of their sacrifice. Those sacrifices often made other people more free. Those sacrifices were not meaningless for the most part (although in cases that ultimately resulted in failure like Vietnam and Afghanistan, it is a harder case to make).

But honestly, the freedom of Americans in the United States was never seriously imperiled, win, lose, or draw, in any of those conflicts, nor was it in the many military interventions in Latin America in which the U.S. has engaged. The notion that these wars prevented terrorism is likewise doubtful.

The wars in which U.S. freedom was really plausibly at stake were the Revolutionary War, the War of 1812, the U.S. Civil War, and World War II.

The Revolutionary War secured our independence from Britain, and the War of 1812 reinforced it, although in hindsight, our British rulers didn't turn out to be all that terribly horrible in the long run (to which our friends in British North America a.k.a. Canada can attest), and we're fast friends with the U.K. now.

The U.S. Civil War freed the slaves and made white Southerners less free in ways that their ancestors resent to this day. This was worth fighting and deserve the slogan in the meme. But the freedom of people in Union states was never really in question, and white Southerners, while disregarding the opinions of slaves and even freed blacks, widely supported succession democratically.

U.S. participation in World War II was critical in making the world safe for all the U.S. held dear, but presented only a modest domestic threat. Japan probably would never have tried to conquer Hawaii after destroying the U.S. fleet there, and neither Japan nor German, nor their allies, seriously considered invading the U.S. mainland, although perhaps if they had conquered the rest of the world, they would have done so.

Also, lots of Americans had their freedom limited during World War II, sometimes necessarily, but none the less freedoms were lost, and in the case of Japanese-Americans, these restrictions on their freedoms were extreme, undeserved, and have gone uncompensated.

The U.S. also fought wars of conquest, such as the Mexican-American War and the series of conflicts over many decades on U.S. territory described for statistical purposes by the U.S. military as "the Indian Wars." These too made some people in what was, or would come to be, part of the U.S. less free, and provided opportunities to others.

Also, quite a few of those who sacrificed and died in the Civil War, World War I, World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War, were draftees, i.e. young men who were temporarily enslaved and forced to fight by the government. The freedom of the draftees who died was not enhanced by their military service.

Ultimately, I am not an anti-war pacifist. Sometimes war is worth it or necessary. But the main pithy knee jerk justification for all that we paid in blood and treasure in our many wars also vastly overstates the historical reality.

Deskilling Teaching

Curiously, in a chain of schools that are in a former British colony, the instruction method is much more in line with the centralized approach of the French education system in the industrial age. 

The education minister was once said to have looked at his watch and told an interviewer that "every 4th grader in France is now singing 'The Bluebird'" or something to that effect.

But, it is hard to argue with success, even if it makes the job of being a teacher less delightful and creative, and while it isn't widely know, the quality of education in less developed countries notoriously awful.

We examine the impact of enrolling in schools that employ a highly-standardized approach to education, using random variation from a large nationwide scholarship program. Bridge International Academies not only delivers highly detailed lesson guides to teachers using tablet computers, it also standardizes systems for daily teacher monitoring and feedback, school construction, and financial management. At the time of the study, Bridge operated over 400 private schools serving more than 100,000 pupils. It hired teachers with less formal education and experience than public school teachers, paid them less, and had more working hours per week. Enrolling at Bridge for two years increased test scores by 0.89 additional equivalent years of schooling (EYS) for primary school pupils and by 1.48 EYS for pre-primary pupils. These effects are in the 99th percentile of effects found for at-scale programs studied in a recent survey. Enrolling at Bridge reduced both dispersion in test scores and grade repetition. Test score results do not seem to be driven by rote memorization or by income effects of the scholarship.

From here. 

The Ukraine War After 100 Days

It is day 100 of the Ukraine War.

Russia's initial efforts to seize Kyiv and secure regime change in all of Ukraine failed, disgracing its grossly incompetent military force in the process. 

But Russia has gained control of about 13% more of Ukraine's territory in Eastern Ukraine than it had immediately before it attacked on February 24, 2022, mostly in areas with large ethnic Russian populations.

This has come at a high cost, however, with Russia estimated to have lost 20% to 33% of its initial invasion force of about 150,000 military personnel (including many generals and senior officers), with serious losses of armored vehicles, some naval vessels in the Russian Black Sea fleet, depletion of Russia's supplies of its most sophisticated guided weapons, and some Russian military aircraft. Russia does not have air superiority over the parts of Ukraine that it does not control and Ukraine still has a functional air force and significant anti-aircraft resources.

Ukraine has also suffered serious losses of military personnel and military equipment as well as very significant civilian casualties and damage to civilian equipment and buildings.

The war has also resulted in swift and severe economic and diplomatic sanctions, both legally mandated and privately determined, and to withdrawals of foreign business investments and cancelations of foreign business deals, to a largely unprecedented level, against Russia and Belorussia.

Natural gas exports from Russia to Western Europe have been seriously disrupted and ceased in some areas. Petroleum exports from Russia have also been rebuffed by much of the world.

The West has united in providing Ukraine with immense military aid, but not troops, out of fears that doing so would trigger a nuclear war with Russia.  The West has also grown united in presenting a common front against Russia, just as Russia, weakened by its military losses in Ukraine is weaker than ever in terms of its available conventional military resources.

Ukrainian Territory Lost To Russia

Image from the Washington Post.

Russia currently occupies about 20% of Ukraine's territory, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says in a video address to Luxembourg's parliament.

"We have to defend ourselves against almost the entire Russian army. All combat-ready Russian military formations are involved in this aggression," he said, adding that the front lines of battle stretched across more than 1,000 km.

From here.

Image from the Washington Post depicting the situation immediately prior to the Ukraine War. According to a 2001 census, more than 50 percent of the population in Crimea and Donetsk identified Russian as their native language.

Ukraine has an area of 232,032 square miles (603,650 sq. km), of which 7.1% was occupied by Russia immediately prior to the current Ukraine war (according to the World Almanac and Book of Facts 2022), which it mostly seized control of in 2014.

The area of the Crimean Peninsula is 10,425 square miles (4.5% of the total area of Ukraine), so this was about 2.6% of Ukraine (6,033 square miles) outside the Crimean Peninsula was occupied pre-war. 

If Russia currently controls about 20% of Ukraine's territory, this is about 46,406 square miles, including about 35,981 square miles outside the Crimean Peninsula. This is down from the peak area that it controlled in the current war, but is still significant.

In the past 100 days, Russia has gained control of about an additional 29,948 square miles, essentially all in Eastern Ukraine to the east of the Dnieper River.

Nationalist And Political Dimensions

Russia has gained control mostly in or adjacent to places with a significant Russian language speaking population. 

Russian control of these areas also tips the balance within "rump" Ukraine towards the West, by stripping out a large share of the population of Ukraine that is politically pro-Russian leaning, although Russia's military actions alone has also hardened people in Ukraine who were softly Russian leaning or ambivalent against Russia.

Before the 2014 invasion, Ukraine was almost perfectly split 50-50 between Western leaning voters, mostly in the West, and Russian leaning voters, mostly in the East and Crimea. The 2014 invasion, by removing the most strongly pro-Russian voters in Ukraine from the electorate, tipped the balance decisively in favor of Western learning political forces in the country.

Other Conflicts Related To The Soviet Union's Demise

Ukraine isn't the only country which was formerly a Soviet Republic with Russian allied separatist controlled territory as the map below (from the same source as the one above) indicates.

According to the Washington Post story:

These “frozen conflicts” have been around since after the Soviet Union fell in 1991. They exist in the former Soviet republics of Azerbaijan, Moldova and Georgia and are widely seen as part of the Kremlin’s larger strategy to extend influence and evade sanctions.

For example, a 2018 Washington Post investigation found that in separatist-controlled eastern Ukraine, officials transfer money to the Russian-supported breakaway region of South Ossetia in Georgia, where the funds are then wired to Russia. Russia then uses the money to pay for goods that are shipped directly to eastern Ukraine.

In Transnistria, pro-Russian separatists broke away from Moldova in 1991, saying they identified more with Ukraine and Russia than with the newly formed Moldova republic that was more linked to Romania.

Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian enclave within the internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan, became a disputed region after the fall of the Soviet Union and the independence of both countries. In September 2020, thousands of troops were killed and entire villages were displaced in a bloody conflict that lasted six weeks. The eventual peace deal was brokered by Putin, showing how Russia has become a key power broker in a conflict that dates to the Soviet era. Russian peacekeepers now patrol the enclave.

Abkhazia and South Ossetia have effectively broken away from Georgia with Russian help, both declaring independence in the early 1990s and remaining strategically linked to the Kremlin.

But the size of the other separatist areas, the military scale of the operations, and the brazenness of the unilateral Russian military attack in Ukraine was far greater in its case. 

Utility Ownership In Flordia

Public ownership of the means of production exists on a continuum, and often, it isn't a remarkable or bad thing.

[I]n Florida, 77% of utilities are owned by the private sector, while only 23% are owned by the public (including federal and local). That said, the 23% that are owned by the public sector service 92% of the population.

"Fact and Fiction: 85% and Critical Infrastructure" via the Lawfare blog.

Republicans Still Mendacious, Delusional, and Weird

One of the most appalling aspects of the current Republican Party is its utter lack of respect for reality, using illegitimate and improper means to achieve it ends. 

Absurd and malicious cases like this one that call into question the sanity of the local elected sheriff pressing it, alas, are increasingly not uncommon in a party that has still pledges its soul to serial fraudster Donald Trump.

Utah Republicans, as a whole, were among the least support of Trump in his two Presidential races, but ultimately, they too seem to have fallen for his spell. The county in question is home to Utah's second biggest city, Provo.

Earlier this week, the Utah County Sheriff's office announced their reinvestigation into a supposed child sex trafficking ring they claim was involved in "ritualistic child sex abuse" between the years of 1990-2010, asking victims and those with knowledge of the crimes to come forward "so that they can be offered all the assistance possible."

If this sounds a tad suspect to you, it is probably because you have lived through some part of the last several decades or are perhaps familiar with the Satanic Panic, the 87,000 documentaries on people falsely accused and wrongfully imprisoned over this nonsense (highly recommend Southwest of Salem, Witch Hunt and Fall River), or even the FBI Behavioral Science Unit's 1992 report on "ritual abuse." Or perhaps what really tipped you off is the fact that no actual instances of it have ever actually been proven to have happened outside the imaginations of people like Utah County Sheriff Mike Smith and the man who reportedly sparked the current investigation, a convicted sex offender/incel rights activist who faked his own death and moved to Scotland, where he was identified after turning up in a hospital sick with COVID.

Following the Utah County Sheriff's press release, Utah County Attorney David Leavitt called for Sheriff Smith to resign and for the Sheriff's Department itself to be investigated, due to the outlandish nature of the so-called investigation. Leavitt also noted that he and his wife were cited in the official "report" on the investigation, which accused them of not only ritualistically abusing children, but of eating them.

“I am calling upon Sheriff Mike Smith to open his office to an outside investigation,” Leavitt said in a statement, “where outside, independent investigators are able to investigate and confirm or deny that documents from a debunked investigation from more than a decade ago were or were not used for political purposes in a Utah County Attorney’s race.”

From here (corroboration here).