27 September 2005

Referrendums C and D status.

Mile High Delphi posted some stale polls last Thursday, from August and July respectively, both showing Referrendum C with a slight, within the margin of error lead (48-44 in August with a four point MOE; 43-42 in July). The July numbers also show that D (bonds, mostly for transportation) is less popular than C (TABOR spending limit relief). Other posts over there claim that the GOP rank and file is divided about 3-1 against C and D.

This is all cautiously good news for C & D supporters. As recently as last week, someone in my office, who I am certain will vote for C in the end, was reluctant to take sides because he wasn't sure what to make of a proposal favored by Owens but opposed by Holtzman. And, typically, in partisan races, GOP defection from the "party line" are less than 10%. On C & D, the Democrats are nearly unanimous in supporting the measure (as evidenced by the profusion of pro-C and pro-D signs in my Democratic stronghold neighborhood), while the Republicans, while predominant anti-C and D leaning, are more divided than usual. This has the effect of removing the benefits of a modest voter registration edge which Republicans normally have in Colorado, and placing the decision on C and D squarely in the hands of independent voters.

Admittedly, independent voters in Colorado tend to be strongly anti-tax. But, many are also aware of the accute fiscal crisis that the state is in (something that the more than 7,000 community groups that back C and D will inform them of, if they don't know already), and Republican sourced attacks on the main proponent of C & D, the Independence Institute, should further mitigate the effectiveness of anti-C free media.

Add in the fact that most observers believe that the pro-C & D campaign has been gaining ground, rather than losing it, and I think it is likely that September and October polls on C & D could actually show a beyond the margin of error lead for C & D which breaks the critical 50% mark (the ranks of undecided voters on this issue is already remarkably small). The referrenda are not headed for a landslide win, by any means, and anti-tax votes usually have an edge in off year elections, but there is no sign that C will experience the continual decline in support leading up to election day that so many initiatives and referrenda do. Indeed, it seems quite likely that C could pass, while D fails.

C & D is the only statewide issue on the ballot this November, so I expect that we'll be hearing a lot more in the month to come.

1 comment:

mile high delphi said...

Thanks for reading me, I read you daily.

I have to revise my predictions on C and D this week. I'm trying to create a model that only uses off year elections (hopefully it can get closer to my predictive goal of 95%).

The Pro-C side seems to be winning the day. My sources inside the Anti-C campaign should have some more polling info later this week, but so far your analysis is right on the mark, the Democratic base is virtually united for C, while only 80% of the GOP base is against C.

Anyway, keep up the good work.