The GOP Worry List

MyDD posted a week old Republican list of races they need to defend, yesterday.

Of particular interest to me is the geographic breakdown.

The only lost cause in the South, out of eight races, is DeLay's seat, where he has been indicted but not allowed to place a successor on the ballot.

Lost Causes:
Senate: MD, MI, MT, WA
House: AZ-8, PA-10 (Sherwood), OH-18 (Ney), TX-22 (DeLay)

Of the races leaning Democratic, out of twelve races, only two are in the South. One, the Foley race in Florida, is a classic "live boy" case that broke as an October surprise forcing Foley to resign.

Leans Dem
Senate: OH, PA
House: CO-7, FL-16 (Foley), NC-11, IN-2, IN-8, IN-9, NY-24, NY-26, OH-15, PA-7

Five out of nineteen toss up races are in the South or border states.

Toss Up
Senate: MO, TN, RI, NJ
House: CT-2, CT-4, FL-13, IA-1, IL-6, KY-4, MN-6, NM-1, OH-1, OH-2, PA-6, PA-8, VA-2, WA-8, WI-8

Five out of seventeen races leaning Republican are in the South or border states.

Leans GOP
Senate: VA
House: CA-4, CA-11, CO-4, CO-5, CT-5, FL-22, KY-02, KY-03, NE-1, NH-2, NV-2, NY-20, NY-25, NY-29, TX-23, WY-AL

Thus, about 10% of races leaning Democratic are in outside the former Confederacy or the border states of Kentucky and Missouri. This would be about 6% absent a spat of Republican scandals. In contrast, more than 20% of those that are toss ups or lean Republican are in those states.

There are also definitely hot spots in terms of the states making the list at all:

New York 5
Pennsylvania 5
Ohio 5
Colorado 3
Connecticut 3
Indiana 3
Florida 3
California 2
Kentucky 2
Texas 2

Considering its size, Colorado is right in the thick of it, thanks to Perlmutter, Fawcett and Paccione.