28 October 2008

Colorado Ballot Issue Polling

UPDATE (more results from the Rocky Poll cited below):

Amendment 46 (End Affirmative Action) 53-40
Amendment 47 (Union Management Fees) 42-53
Amendment 50 (Gambling) 64-34

My prediction on the margin of victory for 50 is revised from a narrow win to a big win.


According to the Rocky Mountain News (Public Opinion Strategies, October 21-23, 500 RV, MOE 4.38%):

Amendment 48 (Egg as Person) 27-69
Amendment 58 (End Severance Tax Breaks) 48-45
Amendment 59 (DeBruce Colorado) 50-42

By Qunnipiac University (Oct. 8-12, 1000 LV, MOE 3%):

Amendment 46 (End Affirmative Action): 63-21

By Ciruli Associates (Sept. 19-23, 501 LV, MOE 4.4%):

Amendment 47 (Union Management Fees): 39-40
Amendment 49 (Payroll Deductions): 44-33
Amendment 50 (Gambling): 55-28
Amendment 52 (Severance Tax For Roads): 64-12
Amendment 54 (Ban Contrib. From Gov't Contractors and Unions): 45-22
Amendment 58 (End Severance Tax Breaks): 51-25
Amendment 59 (DeBruce Colorado): 45-33
Amendment L (21 year old legislators): 27-55
Amendment O (Const. Amendments): 38-26

Polling on several amendments that were pulled from the ballot was as follows in Ciruli's poll 53 (criminal responsibility for executives) 58-18, 56 (health insurance mandate) 48-30 and 57 (tort damages in worker's comp cases) 41-37. Amendment 55 (just cause firing) was also withdrawn.

By Rasmussen Reports (Aug. 13, 700 LV):

Amendment 46 (End Affirmative Action): 55-23

I also recall seeing on poll showing a lead for Amendment 51 (sales tax for developmental disability), with slightly more than 50% support, with a moderate percentage opposed and many undecided early on in the election season, but can't find a link to it.

I haven't seen polling on Amendments M and N, both of which end obsolete constitutional language, but there is a long history of obsolete language measures passing in the state by wide margins.

I haven't seen polling on Denver's issue 3A (school bonds). There is a strong history of support for school taxation issues in Denver, but it is hard to know how hard economic times will impact that support.


All other things being equal, the historically in Colorado, the vast majority of those undecided about a ballot measure will eventually vote "no."

The most vigorous campaigning this election season has been with regard to the anti-union measures Amendments 47, 49 and 54 which a number of Colorado business groups have joined labor in opposing and funding opposition for, in part in exchange for withdrawing four measures that business lobbies didn't like (53, 55, 56, and 57). Their has been campaigning in favor of those three measures as well, but it has been far weaker. So, I would suspect that those measures have lost ground since late September polling.

Influential Republicans have fought Amendment 52, and Democrats have not been strong in support of it either, but neither side has devoted much effort to spreading the word, so it isn't clear that there will be anything but the ordinary skepticism to influence Amendment 52's outcome.

There is no organized opposition to Amendment 51, but the pro-51 campaign has been modest, frankly acknowledging the pressed economic situation of voters and recognizing that they have a tough case to make this year.

My predictions (not my preferences):

Amendment 46 (End Affirmative Action): Pass -- Easily
Amendment 47 (Union Management Fees): Fail
Amendment 48 (Egg As Person): Fail -- Overwhelmingly
Amendment 49 (Payroll Deductions): Fail -- Narrowly
Amendment 50 (Gambling): Pass -- Narrowly
Amendment 51 (Sales Tax For Developmentally Disabled): Fail -- Narrowly
Amendment 52 (Severance Tax For Highways): Pass
Amendment 54 (Government Contractor and Union Contributions): Fail
Amendment 58 (End Severance Tax Breaks): Fail -- Narrowly
Amendment 59 (DeBruce Colorado):Pass -- Narrowly
Amendment L (21 year old legislators): Fail
Amendment M (Obsolete Constitutional Language): Pass -- Easily
Amendment N (Obsolete Constitutional Language): Pass -- Easily
Amendment O (Constitutional Amendments): Pass -- Narrowly
Denver 3A (School Bonds): Pass

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