You could do an elaborate legal analysis of cases headed for the U.S. Supreme Court, or you could just ask, what would Justice Kennedy do? Because, despite the fact that 25% of U.S. Supreme Court cases are resolved by a 5-4 vote, Kennedy has been in the minority just 3 times out of 64 this term, only one of which was decided by a 5-4 vote (Arizona v. Gant, concerning warrantless searches of vehicles, a decision not decided on typical partisan lines with Justices Thomas and Stevens both in the majority).
FWIW, this is post 3850. This blog's fourth anniversary is eighteen days away.
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